PERMUTATIONS FOR OUR WCQ

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kofi86
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Re: PERMUTATIONS FOR OUR WCQ

Post by kofi86 »

anointed wrote:
kofi86 wrote:
anointed wrote:
kofi86 wrote:
anointed wrote:
kofi86 wrote:
Robbynice wrote:Honestly qualification for the WC is not that complicated. Win your home games and get results on the road. Until you lose or "gain a valuable point" at home, there is really no need for permutations...Fact not feelings
:clap: nothing more to add.
Yeah, because our major opponents are incapable of winning at home and also get results.
Well, if Nigeria wins all home games and gets results away, then it means by defiition that the opponons did not win their home games and did not get results away.
If Nigeria wins the 3 home games and draws the two left away games, Nigeria will have 14 points. The second best team could only get to 13 => No need for permutaions as Robby said.

If Nigeria fails to win home games or loses away, well that is another question. Since this was the first game for Nigeria and Algeria - Cameroon are yet to play, there are no real new permutations from this result..
The issue is what will be the situation of things by the time we want to play our last match away in Nigeria in Algeria. Would the Fenecs still be within a touching distance of the ticket say with a 1-0 win?
And what were the permutations after Nigeria beat and Zambia and the result of Alg/Cam was still unknown?
It is still advantage Nigeria.

The question remains whether Algeria will be within touching distance since our last match will be there in Algeria. You are missing the salient points of my post. Note that I didn't say Cameron cos by the time the last round of matches are played cos since we'd not be playing each other then, we will not be able to do anything about each other directly.

Maybe a little bit of our WCQ history will help you. In 1994, Algeria gave us hell in Tlemcem just cos we needed a point and that was depite the fact that those yeye Algerians were out of the running. In 1998, we qualified with a game to spare. 2002 was when Amodu led the SE to pull the nut out of the fire in a WCQ that went extremely bad. I guess it was when the permutations were done after away losses at Liberia and Sierra Leone, that Jo Bonfere was done and Amodu pulled a stunning 4-0 away win in Sudan despite the fact that Sudanese were still in contention then before we wrapped it with sumptuous delivered 3-0 obliteration of Ghana.

In 2006, the only WC we've missed since 1994 was the one WC that even NFF didn't even know the rules let alone do a permutation. And so it was that by the time we were playing our last game I think against Zimbabwe, even with our win and no matter how big the win could be, Angola which ended with the same point with us and inferior GD, edged us out on HTH.

2010 was a tough neck in neck battle with Tunisia. The permutations at a time during the WCQ tilted towards the Tunisians when they forced a draw here but we regained control after getting a point in Tunis. In the last game, we need to curtail our long time wives, Kenya. They misbehaved and even tried to force a divorce but it took a brace from Obafemi Martins to discipline them and snuff out any threat of divorce. Even then the Tunisians could have nicked it had they beaten Mozambique away but they lost.

In 2014, by the time we won away in Ethiopia, it was done and dusted in a play off final round. But now that round robin final round is back, it is essential that we do cotrect permutations after every game. Remember, it was an incorrect permutation that was indirectly responsible for us missing out on the 2012 afcon.

If we can beat Algeria next month and get at least 3 points from our back to back clash with Cameron next year, while hoping Algeria will not win on the road in Cameron and Zambia, then we are home and dry.
I perfectly understand your post, it is just that Nigeria beating Zambia has no non-trivial permutations without any other results. Only permutation is good result, let's wait and see.
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Re: PERMUTATIONS FOR OUR WCQ

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Assuming Nigeria wins all home games; that is 9 points total for a possible 12.
Algeria can only finish with 13 points because they will have lost to Nigeria and the 1point at home ensured they now only have a possible 12 points left.
Cameroon; same scenario losing to naija and possible 12 left. 13 possible max point.
Zambia; same as above but worse chance. Possible max 12 points.
So at this point our maximum 9 points from home is enough only if we can pick a point in Cameroon and hope they do same against Algeria in Cameroon. This situation reduces Algerians possible point total to 10 and our beating Cameroon at home and getting a point there makes it impossible for them to beat us on head to head.

Nigeria; win all home and a point in Cameroon = 13. Loss in Algeria is no biggie if Cameroon beats/ tie them in Cameroon.
Algeria; win remaining home game = 7, win in Zambia = 3 and tie in Cameroon is all we need to eliminate them.
Cameroon ; loss in naija is key coupled a point there is key. Then they can't win on h-h or even on points.
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Re: PERMUTATIONS FOR OUR WCQ

Post by wiseone »

Do we think 11 points can do it? This is a tight group and there will be a few drawn games. Nigeria has 2 away games left. I wonder if drawing those games will be enough (assuming the team picks up max points at home).
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Re: PERMUTATIONS FOR OUR WCQ

Post by Robbynice »

wiseone wrote:Do we think 11 points can do it? This is a tight group and there will be a few drawn games. Nigeria has 2 away games left. I wonder if drawing those games will be enough (assuming the team picks up max points at home).
If we win all our home games, drawing the remaining two road games will be enough. Remember we already got a win on the road and most importantly Cameroon and Algeria already dropped 2 points. The bottom line is as of now, the ball is in our court and a win against Algeria at home on November 12th will keep the ball firmly in our court.
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Re: PERMUTATIONS FOR OUR WCQ

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nemi2002 wrote:Permutations on day one..... Chei..... This group of death go cause fight.... 3 of the 5 teams from Africa to the 2010 and 2014 WCs in the same group, 9 ANC titles between them... Game on....
Whatever happened that led to these teams being in the same group did not go well at all.
And the BIBLE says: The race is NOT for the swift, neither is the battle for the strong nor ... but time and chance makes them all.
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Re: PERMUTATIONS FOR OUR WCQ

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Something is really messed up with the seeding system. 2 of the last 3 African champions are in the same group, along with the highest ranked team in Africa, and another team that is second in the all time list of AFCON wins. What sort of seeding madness lumped those teams in the same group?! :shock:

The European equivalent would be Germany, Spain, France, and Portugal in the same group.

Odas wrote:
nemi2002 wrote:Permutations on day one..... Chei..... This group of death go cause fight.... 3 of the 5 teams from Africa to the 2010 and 2014 WCs in the same group, 9 ANC titles between them... Game on....
Whatever happened that led to these teams being in the same group did not go well at all.
Last edited by wiseone on Wed Oct 12, 2016 3:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: PERMUTATIONS FOR OUR WCQ

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wiseone wrote:Something is really messed up with the seeding system. 2 of the last 3 African champions are in the same group, along with the highest ranked team in Africa, and another team that is second in the all time list of AFCON wins. What sort of seeding madness lumped those teams in the same group?! :shock:

The European equivalent would be Germany, Spain, France, and Portugal in the same group.

Odas wrote:
nemi2002 wrote:Permutations on day one..... Chei..... This group of death go cause fight.... 3 of the 5 teams from Africa to the 2010 and 2014 WCs in the same group, 9 ANC titles between them... Game on....
Whatever happened that led to these teams being in the same group did not go well at all.
Not even close. Algeria, Nigeria and Cameroon did not qualify in 2012, Cameroon failed to qualify in 2013, Zambia and Nigeria failed to qualify in 2015. When was the last time any of France, Germany, Spain or Portugal did not qualify? In the last ANC Zambia and Cameroon finished 4th in their respective group, Algeria made it to the quarters while Nigeria sat at home. Not really impressive.

Portugal = current Euro champ. Current ANC champ = CIV.
Germany/Spain = record Euro champs. Record CAF champ = Egypt

Also at least one of Portugal, France, Germany and Spain did feature in 12 out 15 finals so far, those teams have won 9/15 EUROs.

In fact, Ghana, Egypt and Congo have won a combined 13 trophies, which is more than Nigeria, Cameroon, Zambia and Algeria combined (9).


We understand that Nigeria is in a tough group, but we should not exaggerate.
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Re: PERMUTATIONS FOR OUR WCQ

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Remember the bit where I said "2 of the last 3 African champions are in the same group, along with the highest ranked team in Africa, and another team that is second in the all time list of AFCON wins"? Now apply that to European football and you get:

2 of the last 3 European champions (Spain and Portugal)
along with the highest ranked team in Europe (Germany)
and another team that is second in the all time list of European Championship wins (France)

Now do you see that Nigeria, Zambia, Algeria, Cameroon in the same group = the European equivalent of Germany, Spain, France, and Portugal in the same group?
kofi86 wrote: Not even close. Algeria, Nigeria and Cameroon did not qualify in 2012, Cameroon failed to qualify in 2013, Zambia and Nigeria failed to qualify in 2015. When was the last time any of France, Germany, Spain or Portugal did not qualify? In the last ANC Zambia and Cameroon finished 4th in their respective group, Algeria made it to the quarters while Nigeria sat at home. Not really impressive.

Portugal = current Euro champ. Current ANC champ = CIV.
Germany/Spain = record Euro champs. Record CAF champ = Egypt

Also at least one of Portugal, France, Germany and Spain did feature in 12 out 15 finals so far, those teams have won 9/15 EUROs.

In fact, Ghana, Egypt and Congo have won a combined 13 trophies, which is more than Nigeria, Cameroon, Zambia and Algeria combined (9).


We understand that Nigeria is in a tough group, but we should not exaggerate.
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Re: PERMUTATIONS FOR OUR WCQ

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anointed wrote:With this win, we could afford 6 points against Zambia over 2 legs.

3 points against Algeria in the next game must be sacrosanct. We can't compromise that. Algeria is tough though I don't know how they will fare under their new coach but next month, those 3 points must be in the kitty.

How many points can we truly get from Cameroun? Can we get 4 points? Not impossible. I say these on the basis of the players we have, which could improve into a team.

By the time we travel to play our last game in Algeria, we should have done enough to avoid a heart-in-the-mouth kind of match.

So, I think 13 points is doable before Algeria. There could be blips but it should be with +/- 2 points. We can also assume that Algeria should match us result for result, meaning if we have 13 points going into the final game in Algeria, I won't watch a game where Algeria just needs to beat us 1-0 to qualify.

Giving up even a goal especially when avoidable or failing to get full points when within grasp is a no, no because the permutations are clear.
We are firmly on course. In fact, things are better with Algeria floundering. Who would have thought we would be 4 points clear after 2 games?

Next is a back to back onslaught against the pussyfooting Lions of Cameroun. A minimum of 4 points is doable when WCQ resumes next year.
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Re: PERMUTATIONS FOR OUR WCQ

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We need just 6 more points to qualify with 12 poinrs. In other words, if we can win our 2 remaining home games, we are home and dry cos Cameroun, our closest rivals now can only then achive a max of 11 points.
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Re: PERMUTATIONS FOR OUR WCQ

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anointed wrote:We need just 6 more points to qualify with 12 poinrs. In other words, if we can win our 2 remaining home games, we are home and dry cos Cameroun, our closest rivals now can only then achive a max of 11 points.

You cannot make that point blank statement.

If Nigeria beats Cameroon twice and loses the remaining 2 games while Zambia wins her remaining 4 games, Zambia would qualify with 13 points. Same applies to to Algeria.
If Nigeria wins the 2 home games (against Cameroon and Zambia), but loses the 2 away games while Algeria wins the remaining 4 games, Algeria would qualify.

2 home wins should be enough for Nigeria to qualify, but one away draw might be required to guarantee qualification (if Zambia - Algeria on matchday 3 ends in a draw and Nigeria beats Cameroon, Nigeria knows before the Cameroon away game that they only need to beat Zambia at home to guarantee qualification).

Things are looking really good though and 4 points against Cameroon should more or less seal the deal
Last edited by kofi86 on Sun Nov 13, 2016 4:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: PERMUTATIONS FOR OUR WCQ

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wiseone wrote:Remember the bit where I said "2 of the last 3 African champions are in the same group, along with the highest ranked team in Africa, and another team that is second in the all time list of AFCON wins"? Now apply that to European football and you get:

2 of the last 3 European champions (Spain and Portugal)
along with the highest ranked team in Europe (Germany)
and another team that is second in the all time list of European Championship wins (France)

Now do you see that Nigeria, Zambia, Algeria, Cameroon in the same group = the European equivalent of Germany, Spain, France, and Portugal in the same group?
kofi86 wrote: Not even close. Algeria, Nigeria and Cameroon did not qualify in 2012, Cameroon failed to qualify in 2013, Zambia and Nigeria failed to qualify in 2015. When was the last time any of France, Germany, Spain or Portugal did not qualify? In the last ANC Zambia and Cameroon finished 4th in their respective group, Algeria made it to the quarters while Nigeria sat at home. Not really impressive.

Portugal = current Euro champ. Current ANC champ = CIV.
Germany/Spain = record Euro champs. Record CAF champ = Egypt

Also at least one of Portugal, France, Germany and Spain did feature in 12 out 15 finals so far, those teams have won 9/15 EUROs.

In fact, Ghana, Egypt and Congo have won a combined 13 trophies, which is more than Nigeria, Cameroon, Zambia and Algeria combined (9).


We understand that Nigeria is in a tough group, but we should not exaggerate.

True, from that angle.
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Re: PERMUTATIONS FOR OUR WCQ

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It is absolutely retarded how CAF managed to develop such a group

1) We must develop a new system of qualification, perhaps one that mirrors the South American system (Although this could be a logistical nightmare)
2) OR we develop a CAF coefficient! This is nothing new once again. You have UEFA coefficients, used for UCL, Europa and Euros

The FIFA ranking is too fluid, particularly when the FIFA coefficient is lopsided, and it is increasingly being 'gamed'.

You will find that the FIFA ranking is one of the least durable coefficients out there. The UEFA coefficients, ELO coefficient etc are all more durable. So why should CAF not consider this? Particularly when our Final qualifying round is perhaps the tightest rope of all the major footballing blocs. In light of the fact that we have fewer WC slots and the realistic possibility of imbalanced groups!

Africa must be proactive. Europe will not resolve our problems for us. Yes there are structural deficiencies and administrative deficiencies of the more 'physical' variety, but we must also consider the more 'soft' approaches towards assuring the best possible outcomes.

We might make the simplistic argument that African football has converged and there is little difference among teams nowadays, but while this may hold some truth within an African context, it is far from true at the international stage!

The international stage requires greater depth, breadth and experience!
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Re: PERMUTATIONS FOR OUR WCQ

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^^^^
I like the idea of an Africa coefficient.
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Re: PERMUTATIONS FOR OUR WCQ

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Robbynice wrote:Honestly qualification for the WC is not that complicated. Win your home games and get results on the road. Until you lose or "gain a valuable point" at home, there is really no need for permutations...Fact not feelings
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Re: PERMUTATIONS FOR OUR WCQ

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Tbite wrote:It is absolutely retarded how CAF managed to develop such a group

1) We must develop a new system of qualification, perhaps one that mirrors the South American system (Although this could be a logistical nightmare)
2) OR we develop a CAF coefficient! This is nothing new once again. You have UEFA coefficients, used for UCL, Europa and Euros

The FIFA ranking is too fluid, particularly when the FIFA coefficient is lopsided, and it is increasingly being 'gamed'.

You will find that the FIFA ranking is one of the least durable coefficients out there. The UEFA coefficients, ELO coefficient etc are all more durable. So why should CAF not consider this? Particularly when our Final qualifying round is perhaps the tightest rope of all the major footballing blocs. In light of the fact that we have fewer WC slots and the realistic possibility of imbalanced groups!

Africa must be proactive. Europe will not resolve our problems for us. Yes there are structural deficiencies and administrative deficiencies of the more 'physical' variety, but we must also consider the more 'soft' approaches towards assuring the best possible outcomes.

We might make the simplistic argument that African football has converged and there is little difference among teams nowadays, but while this may hold some truth within an African context, it is far from true at the international stage!

The international stage requires greater depth, breadth and experience!
I agree that the FIFA rankings should not be used to determine the drawing pots as the rankings put too much importance on recent qualifiers/friendlies. It is not easy though to prevent such groups as the Nigeria one, if the "big guns" are that inconstant. Out of the 2012, 2013 and 2015 ANC Cameroon, Nigeria, Algeria and Zambia have missed out 5/12 ANCS, have been eliminated at the group stage in 4/12 times, made it to the quarters 1/12 and won it 2/12 times.
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Re: PERMUTATIONS FOR OUR WCQ

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kofi86 wrote:
anointed wrote:We need just 6 more points to qualify with 12 poinrs. In other words, if we can win our 2 remaining home games, we are home and dry cos Cameroun, our closest rivals now can only then achive a max of 11 points.

You cannot make that point blank statement.

If Nigeria beats Cameroon twice and loses the remaining 2 games while Zambia wins her remaining 4 games, Zambia would qualify with 13 points. Same applies to to Algeria.
If Nigeria wins the 2 home games (against Cameroon and Zambia), but loses the 2 away games while Algeria wins the remaining 4 games, Algeria would qualify.

2 home wins should be enough for Nigeria to qualify, but one away draw might be required to guarantee qualification (if Zambia - Algeria on matchday 3 ends in a draw and Nigeria beats Cameroon, Nigeria knows before the Cameroon away game that they only need to beat Zambia at home to guarantee qualification).

Things are looking really good though and 4 points against Cameroon should more or less seal the deal
You are right on the 4 points against Cameroon. your analysis presents the clearest path.
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Re: PERMUTATIONS FOR OUR WCQ

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The seeding that led to this awful group must never be allowed to happen again. To be honest it is a shame that three of these teams will not be at the next WC. Especially if one or all of Nigeria, Cameroon, and Algeria do not make it. All those teams could represent Africa admirably at the WC.
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Re: PERMUTATIONS FOR OUR WCQ

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wiseone wrote:The seeding that led to this awful group must never be allowed to happen again. To be honest it is a shame that three of these teams will not be at the next WC. Especially if one or all of Nigeria, Cameroon, and Algeria do not make it. All those teams could represent Africa admirably at the WC.
Cameroon isn't gonna do crap at the WC. They just go there and embarrass Africa.
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Re: PERMUTATIONS FOR OUR WCQ

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:rotf: wicked
Ok, would be a shame if guys like Mahrez, Slimani, Feghouli, Soudani, Iwobi, Ighalo, Mikel, etc do not go to the WC.
ogasir wrote:Cameroon isn't gonna do crap at the WC. They just go there and embarrass Africa.
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Re: PERMUTATIONS FOR OUR WCQ

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Tbite wrote:It is absolutely retarded how CAF managed to develop such a group

1) We must develop a new system of qualification, perhaps one that mirrors the South American system (Although this could be a logistical nightmare)
2) OR we develop a CAF coefficient! This is nothing new once again. You have UEFA coefficients, used for UCL, Europa and Euros

The FIFA ranking is too fluid, particularly when the FIFA coefficient is lopsided, and it is increasingly being 'gamed'.

You will find that the FIFA ranking is one of the least durable coefficients out there. The UEFA coefficients, ELO coefficient etc are all more durable. So why should CAF not consider this? Particularly when our Final qualifying round is perhaps the tightest rope of all the major footballing blocs. In light of the fact that we have fewer WC slots and the realistic possibility of imbalanced groups!

Africa must be proactive. Europe will not resolve our problems for us. Yes there are structural deficiencies and administrative deficiencies of the more 'physical' variety, but we must also consider the more 'soft' approaches towards assuring the best possible outcomes.

We might make the simplistic argument that African football has converged and there is little difference among teams nowadays, but while this may hold some truth within an African context, it is far from true at the international stage!

The international stage requires greater depth, breadth and experience!
Coefficient, is too strong a word for the current CAF president.
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Re: PERMUTATIONS FOR OUR WCQ

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wiseone wrote:The seeding that led to this awful group must never be allowed to happen again. To be honest it is a shame that three of these teams will not be at the next WC. Especially if one or all of Nigeria, Cameroon, and Algeria do not make it. All those teams could represent Africa admirably at the WC.
I will agree on Nigeria and Algeria

But Cameroon do not deserve to go to the WC again for a long time after their continuous disgraces.

They are not currently one of Africas top 5 teams.

IMO the best 5 teams to rep AFrica at WC would be

Nigeria
Algeria
Senegal
Ghana
CIV
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Re: PERMUTATIONS FOR OUR WCQ

Post by wiseone »

No shout out for Cape Verde? (after they actually qualified for the last WC, only to be DQd - and let Cameroon in through the back door, who "disgaced" Africa as you aptly put it).

Burkina Faso would give European teams a hard time too.
vancity eagle wrote:
wiseone wrote:The seeding that led to this awful group must never be allowed to happen again. To be honest it is a shame that three of these teams will not be at the next WC. Especially if one or all of Nigeria, Cameroon, and Algeria do not make it. All those teams could represent Africa admirably at the WC.
I will agree on Nigeria and Algeria

But Cameroon do not deserve to go to the WC again for a long time after their continuous disgraces.

They are not currently one of Africas top 5 teams.

IMO the best 5 teams to rep AFrica at WC would be

Nigeria
Algeria
Senegal
Ghana
CIV

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