FIFA approves 48 team World Cup for 2026 (updated)

[Molue Conductor]

Europe have the most to gain.

They don't have to compete against each other in the group stages.

LOL. It reduces the probability of European countries getting to the second round from close to 50% to about 33%!!

All things being equal, yes. but all things aren't equal. i have posted it before and will post it again when i have time the European and south american team consistently beat teams from other federations. most of their losses come when they play against each other.

We do know that all things are not always equal but we can still predict based on proportion. Also note that not all European teams are on the same level thus it is also very unlikely that all 16 will ever go through. To say that they only fail when they play each other says little because in the previous structure they had to play each other most of the time based on their number and the number of groups. That certainly will be different from 2026.

Look at south America's current performance. All things are Far from equal.

This was my Analysis after the last WC.

If the WC is about getting the worlds best on the pitch, then S. America deserves at least 1 more spot.

Europe are both punished and benefit from their extra spots. Portugal and Russia were basically knocked out by losses to other European teams (they did not lose to other Confederations). 7 of Europe's 10 losses to other confederations has been to South American teams( the others were Costa Rica (Italy) , Mexico(Croatia), and Nigeria(Bosnia)). So despite the so called moin-moin European teams on display they were only really losing to S. American teams.

Funny enough, for 32 team WCs, Africa worst tournament was in S. Africa (which happened to be Asia's best tournament).

I don't think i would advocate COMEBOL getting an additional spot. The gulf in performance between the top 3 and the 4th was too large to warrant any additional consideration. Which brings me to my main point:

The Arguments for increasing or decreasing spots should be based on how the worst teams on each confederation performed as this is where spot increase/decrease has an effect. Europe sent 13 teams to this WC and only 1 of them was not able to get a result against other confederations (Italy); Africa had 1 team out of 5 (Cameroon); Asia had 1 team out of 4 (Australia); N. America had 1 team out of 4 (Honduras); and, S. America had 0 teams out of 6. Ignoring home continent advantage, this evidently shows S. America deserves one more spot and if you analyze the performance of the bottom teams, this spot should come from Asia or Africa, then Europe in that order.

Performance of Confederations since 1998: (it seems that the Gap b/w europe and S. America vs the rest of the world is increasing)

Matches involving countries from the same federation omitted: PKs listed as Draws

Code: Select all

Record from 2014 WC. 
        	P	W 	L 	D 	GF	GA	GD	Pts 	PPG
S. Amer	20	16	3 	2 	39	23	16 	47	2.35
Europe 	37	17	10	10	50	37	13 	61	1.65
N.Amer 	16	5 	6 	5 	16	19	-3 	20	1.25
Africa 	17	3 	11	3 	19	32	-13	12	0.71
Asia   	12	0 	9 	3 	06	19	-13	03	0.25
Oceania	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0  	0 	0.00

________________________________________________________

Record from 2010 WC.

Code: Select all

        	P	W 	L 	D 	GF	GA	GD	Pts 	PPG
S. Amer	21	12	4 	6 	33	17	16 	42	2.00
Europe 	32	13	9 	10	40	31	9  	49	1.53
Asia   	14	4 	7 	3 	14	28	-14	15	1.07
Oceania	3 	0 	0 	3 	2 	2 	0  	2 	1.00
N.Amer 	11	2 	5 	4 	8 	12	-4 	10	0.91
Africa 	20	4 	10	6 	17	24	-7 	18	0.90

Record from 2006 WC.

Code: Select all

        	P	W 	L 	D 	GF	GA	GD	Pts 	PPG
S. Amer	17	11	4 	1 	28	11	17 	34	2.00
Europe 	35	22	5 	1	 49	24	25    67	1.91
Oceania	4 	1 	2 	1 	5 	6 	-1    4 	1.00
Africa 	16	3 	10	3 	15	27	-12	12	0.75
Asia   	12	1 	7 	4 	9 	24	-15	7 	0.58
N.Amer 	13	1 	9 	3 	10	24	-14	6 	0.46

Record from 2002 WC. Matches involving countries from the same federation omitted

Code: Select all

        	P	W 	L 	D 	GF	GA	GD	Pts 	PPG
S. Amer	21	10	5 	4 	33	20	13 	34	1.62
N.Amer 	10	4 	3 	3 	14	15	-1 	15	1.50
Europe 	44	17	18	9 	56	45	11 	60	1.36
Africa 	16	4 	6 	6 	16	22	-6 	18	1.29
Asia   	17	6 	9 	3 	13	30	-17	21	1.23
Oceania	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0  	0 	0.00

Record from 1998 WC.

Code: Select all

        	P	W 	L 	D 	GF	GA	GD	Pts 	PPG
Europe 	39	20	6 	13	66	34	32 	73	1.88
S. Amer	21	8 	6 	7 	28	21	7  	31	1.48
Africa 	16	3 	7 	6 	17	29	-12	15	0.94
N.Amer 	10	1 	7 	2 	12	21	-9 	5 	0.50
Asia   	12	1 	9 	2 	7 	24	-17	5 	0.42
Oceania	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0  	0 	0.00

[Workman]

They should do away with qualifiers entirely. Invite 200 countries and be done with it.

That may be where it's headed with the constant expansion. It may soon become Olympics - lite.

[Enugu II]

Molue Conductor,

I agree with your general thesis that the focus should be beyond the super teams. I have done my calculations from 1998 to date (I.e. era of 32-team WC) excluding the super teams and results are similar to what you have below but with a different interpretation. It should be on my blog as soon as I have the tables done with efficiency scores. For instance, UEFA (non super teams) really did not dominate other confederations at the 2014 WC except for CAF. Apart from the obvious results against South America, UEFA teams won two of four games against Asia and two of five against CONCACAF. That is not dominant if you ask me. They are marginally better, no question on that but that is all we know.

However, to the larger point -- I do not believe the World Cup should be based on performance only. I think there are two questions that should guide World Cup allocations: (1) representation, and (2) performance. TBH, the two are already in use by FIFA but I believe that FIFA has not done very well with #1. Currently, representation is a huge imbalance tilted towards UEFA. As for performance, the use of qualifiers already does a good job in ensuring that the best teams qualify from a given confederation.

Europe have the most to gain.

They don't have to compete against each other in the group stages.

LOL. It reduces the probability of European countries getting to the second round from close to 50% to about 33%!!

All things being equal, yes. but all things aren't equal. i have posted it before and will post it again when i have time the European and south american team consistently beat teams from other federations. most of their losses come when they play against each other.

We do know that all things are not always equal but we can still predict based on proportion. Also note that not all European teams are on the same level thus it is also very unlikely that all 16 will ever go through. To say that they only fail when they play each other says little because in the previous structure they had to play each other most of the time based on their number and the number of groups. That certainly will be different from 2026.

Look at south America's current performance. All things are Far from equal.

This was my Analysis after the last WC.

If the WC is about getting the worlds best on the pitch, then S. America deserves at least 1 more spot.

Europe are both punished and benefit from their extra spots. Portugal and Russia were basically knocked out by losses to other European teams (they did not lose to other Confederations). 7 of Europe's 10 losses to other confederations has been to South American teams( the others were Costa Rica (Italy) , Mexico(Croatia), and Nigeria(Bosnia)). So despite the so called moin-moin European teams on display they were only really losing to S. American teams.

Funny enough, for 32 team WCs, Africa worst tournament was in S. Africa (which happened to be Asia's best tournament).

I don't think i would advocate COMEBOL getting an additional spot. The gulf in performance between the top 3 and the 4th was too large to warrant any additional consideration. Which brings me to my main point:

The Arguments for increasing or decreasing spots should be based on how the worst teams on each confederation performed as this is where spot increase/decrease has an effect. Europe sent 13 teams to this WC and only 1 of them was not able to get a result against other confederations (Italy); Africa had 1 team out of 5 (Cameroon); Asia had 1 team out of 4 (Australia); N. America had 1 team out of 4 (Honduras); and, S. America had 0 teams out of 6. Ignoring home continent advantage, this evidently shows S. America deserves one more spot and if you analyze the performance of the bottom teams, this spot should come from Asia or Africa, then Europe in that order.

Performance of Confederations since 1998: (it seems that the Gap b/w europe and S. America vs the rest of the world is increasing)

Matches involving countries from the same federation omitted: PKs listed as Draws

Code: Select all

Record from 2014 WC. 
        	P	W 	L 	D 	GF	GA	GD	Pts 	PPG
S. Amer	20	16	3 	2 	39	23	16 	47	2.35
Europe 	37	17	10	10	50	37	13 	61	1.65
N.Amer 	16	5 	6 	5 	16	19	-3 	20	1.25
Africa 	17	3 	11	3 	19	32	-13	12	0.71
Asia   	12	0 	9 	3 	06	19	-13	03	0.25
Oceania	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0  	0 	0.00

________________________________________________________

Record from 2010 WC.

Code: Select all

        	P	W 	L 	D 	GF	GA	GD	Pts 	PPG
S. Amer	21	12	4 	6 	33	17	16 	42	2.00
Europe 	32	13	9 	10	40	31	9  	49	1.53
Asia   	14	4 	7 	3 	14	28	-14	15	1.07
Oceania	3 	0 	0 	3 	2 	2 	0  	2 	1.00
N.Amer 	11	2 	5 	4 	8 	12	-4 	10	0.91
Africa 	20	4 	10	6 	17	24	-7 	18	0.90

Record from 2006 WC.

Code: Select all

        	P	W 	L 	D 	GF	GA	GD	Pts 	PPG
S. Amer	17	11	4 	1 	28	11	17 	34	2.00
Europe 	35	22	5 	1	 49	24	25    67	1.91
Oceania	4 	1 	2 	1 	5 	6 	-1    4 	1.00
Africa 	16	3 	10	3 	15	27	-12	12	0.75
Asia   	12	1 	7 	4 	9 	24	-15	7 	0.58
N.Amer 	13	1 	9 	3 	10	24	-14	6 	0.46

Record from 2002 WC. Matches involving countries from the same federation omitted

Code: Select all

        	P	W 	L 	D 	GF	GA	GD	Pts 	PPG
S. Amer	21	10	5 	4 	33	20	13 	34	1.62
N.Amer 	10	4 	3 	3 	14	15	-1 	15	1.50
Europe 	44	17	18	9 	56	45	11 	60	1.36
Africa 	16	4 	6 	6 	16	22	-6 	18	1.29
Asia   	17	6 	9 	3 	13	30	-17	21	1.23
Oceania	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0  	0 	0.00

Record from 1998 WC.

Code: Select all

        	P	W 	L 	D 	GF	GA	GD	Pts 	PPG
Europe 	39	20	6 	13	66	34	32 	73	1.88
S. Amer	21	8 	6 	7 	28	21	7  	31	1.48
Africa 	16	3 	7 	6 	17	29	-12	15	0.94
N.Amer 	10	1 	7 	2 	12	21	-9 	5 	0.50
Asia   	12	1 	9 	2 	7 	24	-17	5 	0.42
Oceania	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0  	0 	0.00

[Field Marshall Ogolo]

Good for Naija

My thoughts exactly! !

[kofi86]

Molue Conductor,

I agree with your general thesis that the focus should be beyond the super teams. I have done my calculations from 1998 to date (I.e. era of 32-team WC) excluding the super teams and results are similar to what you have below but with a different interpretation. It should be on my blog as soon as I have the tables done with efficiency scores. For instance, UEFA (non super teams) really did not dominate other confederations at the 2014 WC except for CAF. Apart from the obvious results against South America, UEFA teams won two of four games against Asia and two of five against CONCACAF. That is not dominant if you ask me. They are marginally better, no question on that but that is all we know.

However, to the larger point -- I do not believe the World Cup should be based on performance only. I think there are two questions that should guide World Cup allocations: (1) representation, and (2) performance. TBH, the two are already in use by FIFA but I believe that FIFA has not done very well with #1. Currently, representation is a huge imbalance tilted towards UEFA. As for performance, the use of qualifiers already does a good job in ensuring that the best teams qualify from a given confederation.

Europe have the most to gain.

They don't have to compete against each other in the group stages.

LOL. It reduces the probability of European countries getting to the second round from close to 50% to about 33%!!

All things being equal, yes. but all things aren't equal. i have posted it before and will post it again when i have time the European and south american team consistently beat teams from other federations. most of their losses come when they play against each other.

We do know that all things are not always equal but we can still predict based on proportion. Also note that not all European teams are on the same level thus it is also very unlikely that all 16 will ever go through. To say that they only fail when they play each other says little because in the previous structure they had to play each other most of the time based on their number and the number of groups. That certainly will be different from 2026.

Look at south America's current performance. All things are Far from equal.

This was my Analysis after the last WC.

If the WC is about getting the worlds best on the pitch, then S. America deserves at least 1 more spot.

Europe are both punished and benefit from their extra spots. Portugal and Russia were basically knocked out by losses to other European teams (they did not lose to other Confederations). 7 of Europe's 10 losses to other confederations has been to South American teams( the others were Costa Rica (Italy) , Mexico(Croatia), and Nigeria(Bosnia)). So despite the so called moin-moin European teams on display they were only really losing to S. American teams.

Funny enough, for 32 team WCs, Africa worst tournament was in S. Africa (which happened to be Asia's best tournament).

I don't think i would advocate COMEBOL getting an additional spot. The gulf in performance between the top 3 and the 4th was too large to warrant any additional consideration. Which brings me to my main point:

The Arguments for increasing or decreasing spots should be based on how the worst teams on each confederation performed as this is where spot increase/decrease has an effect. Europe sent 13 teams to this WC and only 1 of them was not able to get a result against other confederations (Italy); Africa had 1 team out of 5 (Cameroon); Asia had 1 team out of 4 (Australia); N. America had 1 team out of 4 (Honduras); and, S. America had 0 teams out of 6. Ignoring home continent advantage, this evidently shows S. America deserves one more spot and if you analyze the performance of the bottom teams, this spot should come from Asia or Africa, then Europe in that order.

When we talk about representation we have to factor in though that it is not only about the number of teams, but also which teams. I can imagine that FIFA and a lot of fans consider a few teams more valuable for the World Cup experience than other teams. So Europe might not only have 13 spots, so that Bosnia or Greece participates in the World Cup instead of Uzbekistan or Senegal, but to make sure that Germany, Holland, Italy, England or France do not miss out on a World Cup as those teams draw huge audiences and generate a lot of interest (Argentina/Brazil as well).

[folem]

FIFA president promises CAF a minimum of 7 slots in expanded 48 team world cup.

[ohenhen1]

It is a scam, money making enterprise for the Europeans.

So they are telling us that UEFA will have 16 teams. While CAF gets 7, interesting.

[folem]

Now 9 or 10 is the latest promise.

http://www.iol.co.za/sport/fifa/infanti ... um=twitter

"Of the 48 teams scheduled for the 2026 World Cup nine or ten will be African. We'll be working on that," the Swiss head of world football promised.

[ohenhen1]

Something fishy is going on. I don't trust this FIFA president.