Cybereagles

Not sure if anybody has brought this up

but While all eyes are fixed on the FIFA rankings (for seeding, work permits etc), we should not forget the CAF Coefficient.

Only the top 12 teams (If I am not mistaken) are granted four teams (2 + 2) for the Champions League and Confederation Cup

We are currently 11th, just ahead of South Africa. And South African football is on the up and up. I don't know about matters in Angola, Libya or Ghana but as with the FIFA rankings, we are cutting things too close.

But more than the rankings themselves we should be worried about our poor performances (which have produced the rankings in the first place).

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Bixente Lizarazu once described Spain’s football - which won them two European titles and a World Cup - as “love without the sex. It lacks a bit of spice”. News.com.au

Actually my first post is a little bit of a misnomer, because for the 2017 tournaments they use an aggregate of CL and CC results from the past 5 years.

Which produced this table



We are 12th and narrowly make the cut to enter four teams

But if we do not shape up, we might lose two spots in the future

this is obviously all from wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAF_5-Year_Ranking

Actually it is much worse, because as shown in the aggregate it is our result from 2011 and 2012 that are saving us. Luckily we had something of a result last year as well.



but by the 2019 editions, Nigeria could lose a spot if we do not perform in the next two years. There is very little margin for error.

If we get no result this year, we will have 8 points, and if a Cameroonian team were to make it to the Group stage this year...in 2019 we would only send two teams. That is how fine the margin is!

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Bixente Lizarazu once described Spain’s football - which won them two European titles and a World Cup - as “love without the sex. It lacks a bit of spice”. News.com.au

Tbite,

Thanks for bringing this up. Is this current? I thought that our recent performances would have knocked us off the privilege of providing four teams in the near future. Last year, only one of our four teams got to the mini league stage (Enyimba) and only by a hair. This year, it could be worse based on the fixtures. We could easily lose the privilege like Ghana did a few years back.

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The difficulties of statistical thinking describes a puzzling limitation of our mind: our excessive confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent inability to acknowledge the full extent of our ignorance and the uncertainty of the world we live in. We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events -- Daniel Kahneman (2011), Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics

The first table just shows the rankings for each year. So it is current for now and the 2018 tournament, it is not current for the 2019 edition. We could drop down further by then, if we are not careful.

2010-2014 informed the 2016 tournaments
2011-2015 will inform the 2017 tournaments
2012-2016 will inform the 2018 tournaments
2013-2017 will inform the 2019 tournaments

In recent times our best performance was between 2011-2012 and as you can see that by 2019 those results will not factor in. If one of the teams below us has a great tournament in 2017 and none of our teams make it to the group stage, we could lose spots to one of those teams below such as Cameroon or Libya.

This is especially because results in the most recent tournament are weighed 5 times more than results from the first year of the 5 year period. For teams like Tunisia with such a high points total, it makes no difference what they do for the forseable future they will be fine. Their only concern may be club seeding and obviously what is actually at stake (Financial gain, silverware etc).

but Nigeria is on the cusp. For 2017 and 2018 we will definitely not be losing any spots, but by 2019 we could have lost spots. Of course Nigeria is the type of country that can turn things around overnight, so nobody might even notice how close we were to losing spots. But at the same time, if we don't...it may come as a shock just like our failure to qualify for the 2012 ANC. This 2017 edition IMO is critical. We haven't really been doing anything in the CL and Confed Cup for a long time. Right now, we are just holding on because the countries below us also suck.

To make things worse, it is not clear if there is a tiebreaker if teams are tied at 12th. We could indiscriminately lose out.

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Bixente Lizarazu once described Spain’s football - which won them two European titles and a World Cup - as “love without the sex. It lacks a bit of spice”. News.com.au

Tbite,

I share your fears because the reality is that we have not done much in recent times.Further, I do not hold high hopes going by the fixtures this year. Of course, I hope our clubs will surprise everyone this year but that will be a miracle IMHO.

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The difficulties of statistical thinking describes a puzzling limitation of our mind: our excessive confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent inability to acknowledge the full extent of our ignorance and the uncertainty of the world we live in. We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events -- Daniel Kahneman (2011), Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics

Well then at least in 2018 we will have to do something. The countries below us may also fail to pull of something.

but if we keep dilly dallying, it is only a matter of time before we lose spots, and that will only make things worse.

The club seedings also matter, if our clubs do not win games, then even if we maintain all our four spots, they will be get more difficult fixtures in the future.

If we have a bad year this year, we may just get away with it..but I don't like our chances going forward if we don't turn things around. We need to reach the Final of one of these competitions soon.

Someone might say that well if we keep losing, why do we care so much about the 4 spots. But we are talking about half a million dollars in the group stage, and we are talking about probability, then losing spots is not going to help matters.

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Bixente Lizarazu once described Spain’s football - which won them two European titles and a World Cup - as “love without the sex. It lacks a bit of spice”. News.com.au

But if Nigerian teams haven't done much of recent and only one club has won it from Nigeria twice (Eyimba) and nothing else happened in the modern version of the competition before or after that then maybe they don't deserve 4 spaces!

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WHAT SHALL BE SHALL BE SABI

Sudan seems to consistently produce strong club sides (even though their national team is not much). Why are their clubs so strong?

Sudan's strength is basically within two super clubs that are funded by millionaires and are able to recruit the best players, including from Nigeria.

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The difficulties of statistical thinking describes a puzzling limitation of our mind: our excessive confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent inability to acknowledge the full extent of our ignorance and the uncertainty of the world we live in. We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events -- Daniel Kahneman (2011), Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics

Kpom!

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"There is big pressure at this club as you cannot be like the manager at Arsenal and ask for five years to try and to win one trophy" - Jose Mourinho

.... I believe in God. I try to be a good man so He can have a bit of time to give me a hand when I need it - Jose Mourinho

Nigeria is ranked 13 for the next season and will probably have one slot each.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAF_5-Yea ... g_for_2018–19_CAF_competitions

There is no reason why Nigerian clubs should be this bad

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There must be a reason why rich Nigerian businessmen do not want to buy NPL clubs, but have threatened to buy EPL clubs...

...foreign players, just like most European clubs/countries loaded with foreign players but poor national team.

Not true. They have another team that is quite good that has no Nigerian players. Not even sure if Merreikh and Hilal have any Nigerian players currently

Looking at Nigerian teams though, it is amazing that despite having such a big pool the teams can't cut it at intl level

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...foreign players not necessarily Nigerian.

Damn! You know your African soccer.

Al-Ahli and Khartoum have recently been challenging the Sudanese duopoly.

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"The young Walt Disney was sacked because he lacked imagination. They advised Marilyn Monroe to become a secretary and Elvis to go back to driving a lorry."

Having 4 teams in CAF perhaps gives us a false sense of importance. Maybe loss of some spots would humble us enough to put our house in order and shake us out of a feeling of entitlement. Maybe.

It may be for just one season.

Nigeria is currently ranked 10 and will have 2 slots for 2019–20 CAF club competitions.

Enyimba we are grateful.

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Bixente Lizarazu once described Spain’s football - which won them two European titles and a World Cup - as “love without the sex. It lacks a bit of spice”. News.com.au

The problem with Nigeria is we do not have the traditional teams that consistently challenge for the title year on year, a duopoly you might call it. When you have such teams and the good players dream of playing for then those teams are likely to be strong enough to challenge for continental honors.

We should also be mindful that every decent Nigerian wants to get out of Nigeria. That could as the result of the league itself not valuing the players like lack of contact, not getting their wages paid on time, working environment etc

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Super Eagles - Fly Above The Storm!!!

On the one hand - the lack of a monopoly club (PSG, Celtic, Bayern, Juventus) that just dominates its country's league with ease theoretically makes the NPL more competitive and unpredictable. However as you say, it also means that there are no "status symbol" clubs that a player considers playing for a lifetime ambition (Real, Barca, Bayern, Man Utd).

The massive player turnover and foreign exodus of Nigerian players makes it exceptionally difficult for any club to have the stability to dominate for several years. The only clubs consistently at/near the top of the table in recent years are Enyimba and Kano Pillars.