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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 5:00 pm 

Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2016 2:14 pm
Posts: 470
Tbite wrote:
Kabalega wrote:
Sengegal had a 1/4 final goal in 2002. When they got their, they lost the plot, when they could have beaten Turkey and made it further.
It is better to take the first two group games and each knockout game as a final.

As far as winning the WC goes, that 1/4 final showing is hardly impressive. Look at the resume of the teams that have won it. They have an immense amount of consistency, which reflects the precision that Ohsee speaks of.

"Lost the plot", these are things that are more likely to plague inconsistent sides than consistent sides. You see it as, "Oh they were unlucky, a little bit of this and they could have gone farther", I see it as "They lacked the overall organization necessary, and eventually something had to give".

Senegal won ONE game at the World Cup in regulation time, and even if they had gotten past Turkey, that number would have remained the same. So that hardly looks like a team that had the precision to win the tournament. It looked like a team, waiting to lose.

The next NEW WC winner is coming from Europe, if we are not sentimental. I like Ayo Akinfe's thread about how many teams can win the WC, and I do agree with it, with the assumption that those teams will in time develop the necessary tools to be consistent. I like for example how Ayo points to South Africa strengthening its league over time.

Even outside of Europe, you would be looking to sides like Mexico for example, who have a good record of getting into the knockout rounds in the past 30 years. The WC has proven and shown that it is not a random fest, it is not what many people describe it to be. It is not "Get to the Semis and anything is possible", I have heard that here on CE so many times, yet that is incorrect.

The WC is more like "If you weren't prepared to win this title, if you by some fortune make it to the Semis, you will be killed off then". It is NOT a tournament for the unprepared.

I guess by that logic African teams should forfeit.

The fact is that we are making those strides. We are much poorer and have been in a much worse situation than these European nations, While all of this we still have better World Cup results than Asia and arguably North America despite being a poorer region. The fact is that we were already behind because of everything else around the world. The matter of getting there will take time and by the grace of God we win the title.

PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:38 pm 

Joined: Tue Dec 30, 2003 9:33 pm
Posts: 8013
Tbite wrote:
Ohsee touches on a very strong point.

and if we are to be honest with ourselves, no African nation has a realistic shot at winning the cup, right now.

It is one thing to be an underdog under non-competitive circumstances, and ride the luck of fortune. It is one thing to pull off one upset, even in competitive circumstances, but to pull off a minimum of 4 wins in the knockout stages and 3 - 9 points in the group stages requires an exponential amount of precision. It is simply less likely for an underdog to make a deep run.

However, when an underdog CONSISTENTLY makes a deep run in the WC, then it cannot simply be a matter of fortune or rarity; the team must have some of the requisite needs to claim the trophy.

For the next WC winners, we shouldn't be throwing wild guesses around, it will likely come from the pool of teams that have been consistently short of the title. I.e. Netherlands (when they return to form and qualify), Poland, Portugal, Croatia.

I have ignored teams that haven't knocked on the door for a lengthy period of time (Hungary, Austria etc.), and included Croatia rather than Turkey, because of their relatively recent history, AND their past exploits as Yugoslavia. Plus they are a decent team right now.

When Spain claimed the title in 2010, they had reached the 1/4 finals, 5 times beforehand, including a fourth place finish. Of all the times that they had qualified, they had only failed to scale the group stage 3 times.

When we look at the best African teams that have made a relatively deep run, or looked capable of making a deep run, how many of them have done so consistently? The answer is none! That shows that Africa is lacking in the precision department. We are simply not ready.

However, I will go on to say that we should still have the belief that we will go on to win every tournament (even though we are not adequately prepared for it), for it is not entirely unlikely, and self belief can drive a team further than their abilities. Having said that, it is CRUCIAL that we do not dwell on that self-belief, such that it undermines the significance of preparedness. We are not ready, that is something that must sink deep into our heads, and something that we must never forget. Because it will not bode well for future tournaments.

Nigeria is capable of beating any team in world football. All we need is a bit of luck and the right momentum. If we beat any of the big guns in the 2nd round, it could lead to a build up of confidence by the team and setting in the right momentum with a string of victories leading to the WC final. At the 1996 Olympics, my then editor at African football magazine, was camped with the dream team in Atlanta. He told me that after the victory over Brazil in the semi-finals, nothing could stop the team from winning Gold as they were determined to make history. And it was evidence in the final as they had Argentina's back to the walls for long periods of the game. In AFCON 2013, the victory in the QF over Ivory coast propelled the team to the final and winning the cup. So it is not impossible for Nigeria to win the WC if the above scenario plays out. When the Nigerian team has BELIEF, no team can stop us.

I am happy

PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:36 am 
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Joined: Tue Dec 23, 2003 4:57 pm
Posts: 54285
Location: United Kingdom
We will get there with time. The good news is that we are on the right road.


PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:14 am 

Joined: Sun Apr 13, 2008 10:37 pm
Posts: 16783
in that quadrant of the draw Belgium and England are overwhelming favourites to make the Qufinals
Senegal have a good chance of making the second round
The Achilles heel is lack of football IQ

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