Moving the Nations Cup was a mistake

[Cmoke]

Guys,

The January African Nations Cup was a good tune up tournament for African teams going to the June World Cup.

I remember the 1994 SE gelling and discovering Amuneke during the ANC.

This time around we did not discover our best way to play until after the Croatia game, something that cost us plenty.

Given these World Cup African teams horrible results, they could have used the ANC to get ready!

Cmoke

I still dey Moscow. I was supposed to fly out go see our June 30 second round match from here. But sha, God dey!

[oloye]

That is one of the areas i believe CAF shot itself in the leg.

[theYemster]

Guys,

The January African Nations Cup was a good tune up tournament for African teams going to the June World Cup.

I remember the 1994 SE gelling and discovering Amuneke during the ANC.

This time around we did not discover our best way to play until after the Croatia game, something that cost us plenty.

Given these World Cup African teams horrible results, they could have used the ANC to get ready!

Cmoke

I still dey Moscow. I was supposed to fly out go see our June 30 second round match from here. But sha, God dey!

Is this based on data or on sentiments? Personally I don't see any significant difference in WC performance since the switch so I guessing this is just based on your personal preference. In fact two African teams made it to the second round in 2014 which I don't believe ever happened before and both were unlucky not to progress even further.

[Synopsis]

In the past, African teams used to fire their coaches if they didn’t perform well at the ANC which ultimately unstabilized the teams.

[fabio]

Either way, we look at it.

This fact stands out: The year we didn't play AFCON before the WC, all African teams crashed out of the WC.

[Enugu II]

Either way, we look at it.

This fact stands out: The year we didn't play AFCON before the WC, all African teams crashed out of the WC.

Fabio

Did you see the post by theyemster? If you did, why should you discount it? Bros what his post and yours basically indicate is that we need additional data to reach a conclusion.

[Orion]

I read somewhere that the reason for the move was that 2 major tournaments a year was too exhausting for the players hence our poor showing at the World Cup. And there is some merit to that argument.

I know it's just 6 games (if you go all the way) but the preparation, camping, high tension games etc. puts more stress on the players than your average league game.

The first year it was moved, 2 African teams got to the last 16 for the first time ever (but no QF) so we can't say for sure yet if it was a bad idea.

[fabio]

Fabio

Did you see the post by theyemster? If you did, why should you discount it? Bros what his post and yours basically indicate is that we need additional data to reach a conclusion.

Oga, I have read Yemster theory. I only provided empirical evidence that when this didn't happen (no AFCON), this was the result (WC:all African no second round). It could be way off the mark, until stats and data prove otherwise, I standby my hypothesis.

[Cmoke]

I also note that our youth teams usually play in pre World Cup tournaments prior to the World Cup proper.

Like u guys, I am just trying to figure out what went wrong. Then it dawned on me that my high school insisted that we take the Mock Waec before the Waec proper!

Statistically, we did better than 0-5 most years that we had the ANC just b4 World Cup!

[marutimon]

For the first time ever three African teams dominated their more prolific opponents. Yes, they all came out with nothing to show for it, but the quality of football was there. They were ultimately all very unlucky.

In Qatar 2022 I can't imagine a repeat.

[1naija]

Playing the ANC in the same year as the WC gave the competitive edge to teams that were allergic to going to the WC like Ghana, Egypt, Congo, etc.

I like the schedule. By now we woild we thinking of 2 years before another Major competition, but now it's just few months.

[Eaglezbeak]

On the other hand pulling players out half way through their club season gives them little or no time to prepare.

[Oba]

Either way, we look at it.

This fact stands out: The year we didn't play AFCON before the WC, all African teams crashed out of the WC.

It doesn't look good. A few things come to mind as a counterbalance. 2 of the African teams came within minutes of either outright topping their group or qualifying. Also, one data point isn't sufficient for statistical inference.

That said, it still kinda felt that the Nigerian team was very much work in progress right up to the Argentina game. Rohr hasn't finished building his team. I actually think if he'd got a Nations Cup last year, it would have given him time to build his team and then tweak and perfect tactics for it over the course of the year or so from the ANC to the World Cup. Alas, Nigeria didn't even qualify for the last ANC.

[1naija]

Either way, we look at it.

This fact stands out: The year we didn't play AFCON before the WC, all African teams crashed out of the WC.

One of the 5 teams that went to the WC will win the ANC! The advantage that uncle cmoke states for playing in the ANC before the WC will be more evident during the ANC for the 5 teams. Nigeria in particular would have been together and playing actively for over 6 months. If we are not in the Finals of the ANC, Rohr should be banned from Africa.

[Enugu II]

Fabio

Did you see the post by theyemster? If you did, why should you discount it? Bros what his post and yours basically indicate is that we need additional data to reach a conclusion.

Oga, I have read Yemster theory. I only provided empirical evidence that when this didn't happen (no AFCON), this was the result (WC:all African no second round). It could be way off the mark, until stats and data prove otherwise, I standby my hypothesis.

Fabio,

Here is why I mentioned TheYemster and your data:

Last AFCON in even year = 2012
Effects on WC as follows

2014 = 2 African teams reach Round of 16 (TheYemster)
2018 = 0 African teams reach Round of 16 (Fabio)

The above does not demonstrate a clear effect either way. What it calls for is additional data.

[fabio]

Either way, we look at it.

This fact stands out: The year we didn't play AFCON before the WC, all African teams crashed out of the WC.

It doesn't look good. A few things come to mind as a counterbalance. 2 of the African teams came within minutes of either outright topping their group or qualifying. Also, one data point isn't sufficient for statistical inference.

That said, it still kinda felt that the Nigerian team was very much work in progress right up to the Argentina game. Rohr hasn't finished building his team. I actually think if he'd got a Nations Cup last year, it would have given him time to build his team and then tweak and perfect tactics for it over the course of the year or so from the ANC to the World Cup. Alas, Nigeria didn't even qualify for the last ANC.

Oba, longest time. Hope all is well.

This excuse of work in progress doesn't hold water. Nobody goes to the world cup with a team which is work in progress. Rohr is not tweaking or changing, nor is he going to watch the league and discover players. All he will do is to look for dual nationality players. The results of the friendly matches was obvious. Rohr needs to go.

[kalani JR]

All having the Nations Cup in World Cup years did was give us an excuse to fire Amodu.

[Cmoke]

Uncle 1Naija!

You just proved below why you are the most brilliant lawyer on CE!

Cmoke

Either way, we look at it.

This fact stands out: The year we didn't play AFCON before the WC, all African teams crashed out of the WC.

One of the 5 teams that went to the WC will win the ANC! The advantage that uncle cmoke states for playing in the ANC before the WC will be more evident during the ANC for the 5 teams. Nigeria in particular would have been together and playing actively for over 6 months. If we are not in the Finals of the ANC, Rohr should be banned from Africa.

[elerineye]

Guys,

The January African Nations Cup was a good tune up tournament for African teams going to the June World Cup.

I remember the 1994 SE gelling and discovering Amuneke during the ANC.

This time around we did not discover our best way to play until after the Croatia game, something that cost us plenty.

Given these World Cup African teams horrible results, they could have used the ANC to get ready!

Cmoke

I still dey Moscow. I was supposed to fly out go see our June 30 second round match from here. But sha, God dey!

IMHO, we had enough tuneup games to know how to best approach the games before the Croatia game. For me, the Croatia and Argentina games were winnable, if the coach did not take a cowardly approach.

[Cmoke]

Old boy, hindsight now tells us otherwise.

We put Simi in games and supplied him with zero cross. When Jose introduces Feliani, everybody’s knows what happens next.

All these kinks would have been worked out. Players would have emerged .

Friendlies are different. You experiment and you hide your team from your opponents.


M

Guys,

The January African Nations Cup was a good tune up tournament for African teams going to the June World Cup.

I remember the 1994 SE gelling and discovering Amuneke during the ANC.

This time around we did not discover our best way to play until after the Croatia game, something that cost us plenty.

Given these World Cup African teams horrible results, they could have used the ANC to get ready!

Cmoke

I still dey Moscow. I was supposed to fly out go see our June 30 second round match from here. But sha, God dey!

IMHO, we had enough tuneup games to know how to best approach the games before the Croatia game. For me, the Croatia and Argentina games were winnable, if the coach did not take a cowardly approach.

[1naija]

Guys,

The January African Nations Cup was a good tune up tournament for African teams going to the June World Cup.

I remember the 1994 SE gelling and discovering Amuneke during the ANC.

This time around we did not discover our best way to play until after the Croatia game, something that cost us plenty.

Given these World Cup African teams horrible results, they could have used the ANC to get ready!

Cmoke

I still dey Moscow. I was supposed to fly out go see our June 30 second round match from here. But sha, God dey!

IMHO, we had enough tuneup games to know how to best approach the games before the Croatia game. For me, the Croatia and Argentina games were winnable, if the coach did not take a cowardly approach.

Have you considered that you thought the games were winnable because of the same approach you are calling cowardly?

[oloye]

Fabio

Did you see the post by theyemster? If you did, why should you discount it? Bros what his post and yours basically indicate is that we need additional data to reach a conclusion.

Oga, I have read Yemster theory. I only provided empirical evidence that when this didn't happen (no AFCON), this was the result (WC:all African no second round). It could be way off the mark, until stats and data prove otherwise, I standby my hypothesis.

Fabio,

Here is why I mentioned TheYemster and your data:

Last AFCON in even year = 2012
Effects on WC as follows

2014 = 2 African teams reach Round of 16 (TheYemster)
2018 = 0 African teams reach Round of 16 (Fabio)

The above does not demonstrate a clear effect either way. What it calls for is additional data.

If we drag that far back to even 82, we will see that teams that participated in ANC most likely also participated in the WC. And from 94 the ones that finish in the top 4 tend to post a credible performance at the World Cup.

For me the Nigerian team definitely needed the ANC to brood her players. While that is not saying they would win the bloody thing , but we can always say it was part of their preparation.

[wale1974]

Well Said Cmoke