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PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:00 pm 
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pajimoh wrote:
txj wrote:
There you go again, accusing me of justifying inaction.

What you don't seem to appreciate and I'm pointing out is the difficulty, cost and the overall need to deal with what is a societal problem. APOLOGIES...
ACCEPTED


Have you ever tried chasing your own documents in Nigeria? Documents are lost and found based on what changes hands.

Have you been told to come back another time because the person you need to see is busy or on holiday? Have you ever been told to write an official letter and wait for a response? YES; I lived and worked in Nigeria- both in govt and prvte coys.

Still doesn't explain whether you grasp the frustrating nature of trying to get people to do what they are paid to do in a timely manner?That is precisely my point. I have lived the experience multiple times over. However it is not about me.

You then expect our lazy NFF to keep going through this everytime they are required to verify a player for every tournament that requires verification. No. They do not have the capacity to do this by themselves, hence the suggestion about using vendors who do this for a living.

I still think you're missing the point and why it's so difficult to rely on anyone in Nigeria to do the right thing. Banks are supposed to do the right thing to laid down local and international guidelines. Do they? Politicians, health sector etc. You now want to outsource the verification process to angels? :rotf: Vendors who do what for a living? :rotf: The NFF will employ the vendors or form their own vendor company, charge the NFF, verify nothing and life goes on. That is the narrative about Naija; the reality is different. There are many reputable coys doing good work in Naija; meeting and exceeding the best professional standards anywhere, under exacting conditions I might add.

How do you know players born after 2000 their number cannot be significant? You trivializes the challenges and make it difficult to come up with an effective solution. Based on eligibility requirements for this category, that is where the MAJORITY of the sample population will be drawn from.

You're now claiming we have authentic record keeping in Nigeria but we also know authentic records can be altered, all for a fee. Isn't that why we said most documents and records cannot be relied upon? Does not change the fact of our record keeping. What you have pointed out is the absence of mechanisms for protecting the validity of records, a criminal justice issue.
We have laws and guidelines to cover most thing in Nigeria. The fact that they are not been followed is why Nigeria a a mess today. Yes we keep records but we also alter those records at will for anyone willing to pay. So what good are such records? You are referring to alteration of records obtained by individuals. That is different from the original records in the system. Besides, there is always the option of use of supporting documents to validate birth records. These are process issues that can easily be addressed.

We are in agreement regarding the will to do the right thing and that cuts across everything in Nigeria. The NFF certainly can be faulted for that but they don't work in isolation. Even if they are willing, how about the support structure, individuals etc. Nigeria is what it is now because hardly anything functions the way it ought. Not just the NFF or our football. True. But the discussion here is specific to the NFF and its lack of will to do the right thing.
And the NFF will have to, in the course of discharging their duties, interact with other groups, institutions and individuals. If they are also corrupt what then? NFF doesn't work in isolation We already agree that no system is foolproof. However, the major factors that prevent the NFF from verifying ages of players is not the result of its interaction with other institutions.

If going to the hospital to verify their record becomes the defacto proof that is required and you think our people will not find a way to circumvent that too then....[color=#FF0000]True. There are also mechanisms to address this. For instance, it is possible to begin the verification process in advance of announcement/invitation of players. Plus, the birth records are only one of several documents. Verification processes often involve the use of proxies (support documents), in this case such as education records, immunization records, church records, etc...In addition, it is also possible to drop players u cannot validate their records, just like the MRI does.../color]





The common mistake of many of us in the diaspora is to automatically assume everything is bad in Nigeria. That is a far cry from reality. Let me give u an example: when the ebola crisis hit Lagos, health systems in the US were prepping for a major disaster/rescue effort, based on the data they have always had about Nigeria. The success of the Nigerian effort was received here with MAJOR SHOCK!!! Some even doubted the outcomes...

_________________
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Form is temporary; Class is Permanent!
Liverpool, European Champions 2005.

We watched this very boring video, 500 times, of Sacchi doing defensive drills, using sticks and without the ball, with Maldini, Baresi and Albertini. We used to think before then that if the other players are better, you have to lose. After that we learned anything is possible – you can beat better teams by using tactics." Jurgen Klopp


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:49 pm 
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txj wrote:
pajimoh wrote:
txj wrote:
There you go again, accusing me of justifying inaction.

What you don't seem to appreciate and I'm pointing out is the difficulty, cost and the overall need to deal with what is a societal problem. APOLOGIES...
ACCEPTED


Have you ever tried chasing your own documents in Nigeria? Documents are lost and found based on what changes hands.

Have you been told to come back another time because the person you need to see is busy or on holiday? Have you ever been told to write an official letter and wait for a response? YES; I lived and worked in Nigeria- both in govt and prvte coys.

Still doesn't explain whether you grasp the frustrating nature of trying to get people to do what they are paid to do in a timely manner?That is precisely my point. I have lived the experience multiple times over. However it is not about me.

You then expect our lazy NFF to keep going through this everytime they are required to verify a player for every tournament that requires verification. No. They do not have the capacity to do this by themselves, hence the suggestion about using vendors who do this for a living.

I still think you're missing the point and why it's so difficult to rely on anyone in Nigeria to do the right thing. Banks are supposed to do the right thing to laid down local and international guidelines. Do they? Politicians, health sector etc. You now want to outsource the verification process to angels? :rotf: Vendors who do what for a living? :rotf: The NFF will employ the vendors or form their own vendor company, charge the NFF, verify nothing and life goes on. That is the narrative about Naija; the reality is different. There are many reputable coys doing good work in Naija; meeting and exceeding the best professional standards anywhere, under exacting conditions I might add.

How do you know players born after 2000 their number cannot be significant? You trivializes the challenges and make it difficult to come up with an effective solution. Based on eligibility requirements for this category, that is where the MAJORITY of the sample population will be drawn from.

You're now claiming we have authentic record keeping in Nigeria but we also know authentic records can be altered, all for a fee. Isn't that why we said most documents and records cannot be relied upon? Does not change the fact of our record keeping. What you have pointed out is the absence of mechanisms for protecting the validity of records, a criminal justice issue.
We have laws and guidelines to cover most thing in Nigeria. The fact that they are not been followed is why Nigeria a a mess today. Yes we keep records but we also alter those records at will for anyone willing to pay. So what good are such records? You are referring to alteration of records obtained by individuals. That is different from the original records in the system. Besides, there is always the option of use of supporting documents to validate birth records. These are process issues that can easily be addressed.

We are in agreement regarding the will to do the right thing and that cuts across everything in Nigeria. The NFF certainly can be faulted for that but they don't work in isolation. Even if they are willing, how about the support structure, individuals etc. Nigeria is what it is now because hardly anything functions the way it ought. Not just the NFF or our football. True. But the discussion here is specific to the NFF and its lack of will to do the right thing.
And the NFF will have to, in the course of discharging their duties, interact with other groups, institutions and individuals. If they are also corrupt what then? NFF doesn't work in isolation We already agree that no system is foolproof. However, the major factors that prevent the NFF from verifying ages of players is not the result of its interaction with other institutions.

If going to the hospital to verify their record becomes the defacto proof that is required and you think our people will not find a way to circumvent that too then....[color=#FF0000]True. There are also mechanisms to address this. For instance, it is possible to begin the verification process in advance of announcement/invitation of players. Plus, the birth records are only one of several documents. Verification processes often involve the use of proxies (support documents), in this case such as education records, immunization records, church records, etc...In addition, it is also possible to drop players u cannot validate their records, just like the MRI does.../color]





The common mistake of many of us in the diaspora is to automatically assume everything is bad in Nigeria. That is a far cry from reality. Let me give u an example: when the ebola crisis hit Lagos, health systems in the US were prepping for a major disaster/rescue effort, based on the data they have always had about Nigeria. The success of the Nigerian effort was received here with MAJOR SHOCK!!! Some even doubted the outcomes...



Txj,

I agree and the mistake is also believing that NFF cannot do a thing right. Nevertheless, I believe a huge mistake is relying on anecdotal to generalize to a larger Nigerian population on some of the issues that we are discussing here. Research by UNICEF, as well as those by Nigerians on ground, provide far more reliable data than anecdotal on health issues in Nigeria such as childbirths. For instance, your belief that many of the childbirths take place in hospital or a health establishment is inaccurate.

Any one can refer to anecdotal evidence. On Muhammad Pate's appointment as head of Nigeria's Primary Health Care, I sat with him on travel to Nigeria and what he shared with me at that time on the state of maternal healthcare in Nigeria was atrocious. He should know. However, I have not referred to those anecdotal. Instead, I have cited research data on these issues and it is bad. Those are facts, Txj. More children are born outside a health care facility today in Nigeria than they are born inside of such a facility and it explains why they are hardly registered. Moreover, note that apart from cost of birth registration that I mentioned earlier, the cost of childbirth in a hospital in Nigeria is prohibitive for most Nigerians. Now I am not talking of people who are contributing in CE or most of their friends. You need to realize that those are far from being typical Nigerians. Without those records, the best anyone can do (including consultants) is to estimate an actual birthdate but they can never be as definitive as you hope for. That much should be clear.

_________________
The difficulties of statistical thinking describes a puzzling limitation of our mind: our excessive confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent inability to acknowledge the full extent of our ignorance and the uncertainty of the world we live in. We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events -- Daniel Kahneman (2011), Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:02 pm 
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Enugu II wrote:
txj wrote:
pajimoh wrote:
txj wrote:
There you go again, accusing me of justifying inaction.

What you don't seem to appreciate and I'm pointing out is the difficulty, cost and the overall need to deal with what is a societal problem. APOLOGIES...
ACCEPTED


Have you ever tried chasing your own documents in Nigeria? Documents are lost and found based on what changes hands.

Have you been told to come back another time because the person you need to see is busy or on holiday? Have you ever been told to write an official letter and wait for a response? YES; I lived and worked in Nigeria- both in govt and prvte coys.

Still doesn't explain whether you grasp the frustrating nature of trying to get people to do what they are paid to do in a timely manner?That is precisely my point. I have lived the experience multiple times over. However it is not about me.

You then expect our lazy NFF to keep going through this everytime they are required to verify a player for every tournament that requires verification. No. They do not have the capacity to do this by themselves, hence the suggestion about using vendors who do this for a living.

I still think you're missing the point and why it's so difficult to rely on anyone in Nigeria to do the right thing. Banks are supposed to do the right thing to laid down local and international guidelines. Do they? Politicians, health sector etc. You now want to outsource the verification process to angels? :rotf: Vendors who do what for a living? :rotf: The NFF will employ the vendors or form their own vendor company, charge the NFF, verify nothing and life goes on. That is the narrative about Naija; the reality is different. There are many reputable coys doing good work in Naija; meeting and exceeding the best professional standards anywhere, under exacting conditions I might add.

How do you know players born after 2000 their number cannot be significant? You trivializes the challenges and make it difficult to come up with an effective solution. Based on eligibility requirements for this category, that is where the MAJORITY of the sample population will be drawn from.

You're now claiming we have authentic record keeping in Nigeria but we also know authentic records can be altered, all for a fee. Isn't that why we said most documents and records cannot be relied upon? Does not change the fact of our record keeping. What you have pointed out is the absence of mechanisms for protecting the validity of records, a criminal justice issue.
We have laws and guidelines to cover most thing in Nigeria. The fact that they are not been followed is why Nigeria a a mess today. Yes we keep records but we also alter those records at will for anyone willing to pay. So what good are such records? You are referring to alteration of records obtained by individuals. That is different from the original records in the system. Besides, there is always the option of use of supporting documents to validate birth records. These are process issues that can easily be addressed.

We are in agreement regarding the will to do the right thing and that cuts across everything in Nigeria. The NFF certainly can be faulted for that but they don't work in isolation. Even if they are willing, how about the support structure, individuals etc. Nigeria is what it is now because hardly anything functions the way it ought. Not just the NFF or our football. True. But the discussion here is specific to the NFF and its lack of will to do the right thing.
And the NFF will have to, in the course of discharging their duties, interact with other groups, institutions and individuals. If they are also corrupt what then? NFF doesn't work in isolation We already agree that no system is foolproof. However, the major factors that prevent the NFF from verifying ages of players is not the result of its interaction with other institutions.

If going to the hospital to verify their record becomes the defacto proof that is required and you think our people will not find a way to circumvent that too then....[color=#FF0000]True. There are also mechanisms to address this. For instance, it is possible to begin the verification process in advance of announcement/invitation of players. Plus, the birth records are only one of several documents. Verification processes often involve the use of proxies (support documents), in this case such as education records, immunization records, church records, etc...In addition, it is also possible to drop players u cannot validate their records, just like the MRI does.../color]





The common mistake of many of us in the diaspora is to automatically assume everything is bad in Nigeria. That is a far cry from reality. Let me give u an example: when the ebola crisis hit Lagos, health systems in the US were prepping for a major disaster/rescue effort, based on the data they have always had about Nigeria. The success of the Nigerian effort was received here with MAJOR SHOCK!!! Some even doubted the outcomes...



Txj,

I agree and the mistake is also believing that NFF cannot do a thing right. Nevertheless, I believe a huge mistake is relying on anecdotal to generalize to a larger Nigerian population on some of the issues that we are discussing here. Research by UNICEF, as well as those by Nigerians on ground, provide far more reliable data than anecdotal on health issues in Nigeria such as childbirths. For instance, your belief that many of the childbirths take place in hospital or a health establishment is inaccurate.

Any one can refer to anecdotal evidence. On Muhammad Pate's appointment as head of Nigeria's Primary Health Care, I sat with him on travel to Nigeria and what he shared with me at that time on the state of maternal healthcare in Nigeria was atrocious. He should know. However, I have not referred to those anecdotal. Instead, I have cited research data on these issues and it is bad. Those are facts, Txj. More children are born outside a health care facility today in Nigeria than they are born inside of such a facility and it explains why they are hardly registered. Moreover, note that apart from cost of birth registration that I mentioned earlier, the cost of childbirth in a hospital in Nigeria is prohibitive for most Nigerians. Now I am not talking of people who are contributing in CE or most of their friends. You need to realize that those are far from being typical Nigerians. Without those records, the best anyone can do (including consultants) is to estimate an actual birthdate but they can never be as definitive as you hope for. That much should be clear.


EII,

I think there's a misunderstanding here. I have not and do not question UNICEF data. I live in a world of empirical data!!!

I simply draw attention to its misapplication. The issue for debate is not the Nigerian birth registration system which UNICEF refers to. It is non-existent by most standards.

What I refer to is birth record keeping. They are related but nonetheless distinct issues.

But I would however question the assertion that more children are born outside of healthcare facilities in Nigeria. Because this would depend on what their definition of HC facility is, and whether this be REGISTERED FACILITY or UNREGISTERED.

These are very important distinctions in healthcare, which you may know I am a part of, including in primary care in Nigeria...

The Nigerian system can be a nightmare for formal research....

_________________
Image
Form is temporary; Class is Permanent!
Liverpool, European Champions 2005.

We watched this very boring video, 500 times, of Sacchi doing defensive drills, using sticks and without the ball, with Maldini, Baresi and Albertini. We used to think before then that if the other players are better, you have to lose. After that we learned anything is possible – you can beat better teams by using tactics." Jurgen Klopp


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2018 10:03 pm 
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aruako1 wrote:
Quote:
It appears that the federation does not put much stock on the documentation, and it seems that folks are showing up with sworn affidavits.


Chief Ogbunigwe not everyone who presents a sworn affidavit is cheating. Sometimes it is the only alternative as CTCs of true documents may not be available if they are lost. I agree that the affidavit is open to abuse but until we can be sure that responsible bodies will respond to requests for birth certificate CTCs then the NFF cannot reject affidavits. Even where CTCs are accepted the issue of egunje will cast doubt on the veracity of such documents. And given that the margin of error for MRI which appears to be +/- 2 years finding classmates (you often have a 2 year range in the ages of persons in each class) is not definitive. My brother in law lost about 2 years due to serious illness he had as a child and many children repeat classes. My point is that nothing will satisfy those who are not satisfied with MRI.



My point is that this IS NOT about satisfying people, but about doing what is best. Frankly speaking, I am EXTREMELY skeptical about the MRI. I am too lazy to re read that article, but I critiqued here. If I was the peer reviewer, I would have had them put important disclaimers, important enough to make any serious organizer pause prior to adopting this as a standard.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2018 10:06 pm 
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Enugu II wrote:
Chief Ogbunigwe wrote:
EII:
Babette Zemel is a relatively young woman, while Dr. Dvorak was born in 1948, so the argument that Zemel's thought might be outdated doesn't make sense


Chief

The age of the doctor is not an issue here and has no impact on the point. Let me give you an example you may have a 30 year old doctor still suggesting psi count as enough reason for treating prostrate cancer because that may be the latest information that he or she knows. Yet a 50 year old doctor involved in prostrate cancer research will know more information that has higher probability of detecting a need for treatment. That is the point I was making and this the age is irrelevant. What matters is proximity to the latest research information.



EII:

Semantics. Zemel is an authority at the world's premier pediatric institution. She's at the forefront on this subject, so her expertise is not in question. I am also not questioning Dr Dvorak, but I believe his study was commissioned by FIFA with the intent of implementing the outcome....

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AFCON 2015 sweet o
Barren for 35 yrs no good o

New member and Titled Chief, Distant Gunners Consortium.
"This is an island surrounded by water, big water, ocean water."


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2018 10:17 pm 
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Chief Ogbunigwe wrote:
aruako1 wrote:
Quote:
It appears that the federation does not put much stock on the documentation, and it seems that folks are showing up with sworn affidavits.


Chief Ogbunigwe not everyone who presents a sworn affidavit is cheating. Sometimes it is the only alternative as CTCs of true documents may not be available if they are lost. I agree that the affidavit is open to abuse but until we can be sure that responsible bodies will respond to requests for birth certificate CTCs then the NFF cannot reject affidavits. Even where CTCs are accepted the issue of egunje will cast doubt on the veracity of such documents. And given that the margin of error for MRI which appears to be +/- 2 years finding classmates (you often have a 2 year range in the ages of persons in each class) is not definitive. My brother in law lost about 2 years due to serious illness he had as a child and many children repeat classes. My point is that nothing will satisfy those who are not satisfied with MRI.



My point is that this IS NOT about satisfying people, but about doing what is best. Frankly speaking, I am EXTREMELY skeptical about the MRI. I am too lazy to re read that article, but I critiqued here. If I was the peer reviewer, I would have had them put important disclaimers, important enough to make any serious organizer pause prior to adopting this as a standard.


It also has to be about satisfying people because people's perceptions matter where integrity of a process is involved. I understand that you are not convinced by MRI but many will not be convinced by documentary checks either.


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:37 pm 
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txj wrote:
EII,

I think there's a misunderstanding here. I have not and do not question UNICEF data. I live in a world of empirical data!!!

I simply draw attention to its misapplication. The issue for debate is not the Nigerian birth registration system which UNICEF refers to. It is non-existent by most standards.

What I refer to is birth record keeping. They are related but nonetheless distinct issues.

But I would however question the assertion that more children are born outside of healthcare facilities in Nigeria. Because this would depend on what their definition of HC facility is, and whether this be REGISTERED FACILITY or UNREGISTERED.

These are very important distinctions in healthcare, which you may know I am a part of, including in primary care in Nigeria...

The Nigerian system can be a nightmare for formal research....


Txj,

I do understand the difference. See the research by Makinde (Relevant excerpt) posted below that addresses the point you dispute above. I think you underestimate the problem here. Our experiences and those of most people on CE is far from being typical for most Nigerians. Most have births that are not recorded.

Note also the second post that points to the cost for giving birth in a Nigerian hospital and the numbers included in that article about unemployment. That will give you an idea that hospital is not a viable choice for a significant number of Nigerians.

Quote:
https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol35/12/35-12.pdf

A poor pattern of maternal hospital utilization has been observed to negatively influence the chances of survival of children under five years (Antai 2011). Thus improving hospital utilization for delivery, besides having a direct effect on the health of the women concerned, can contribute toward raising birth registration completeness in Nigeria while also improving outcomes for the children born to these women. However, this is a matter of concern, as only 36% of deliveries in Nigeria take place in health facilities, according to the 2013 DHS, a marginal increase from the 2003 estimate of 33% (National Population Commission, Federal Republic of Nigeria and ICF International, Maryland USA 2014). The persistent poor utilization of health facilities needs to be tackled for this to have an effect on birth registration.


Quote:
Cost of having a baby in Ondo
ON APRIL 14, 20183:10 AMIN SATURDAY TALKING POINT0 COMMENTS
By Rose Moses

When Bill Gates some weeks back, told Nigerian political elites that the country is one of the most dangerous places on earth to give birth, not many would have thought of the drama that played out in Akure, the Ondo State capital, the other week. Pregnant women were reported to have paralyzed activities in the State Specialist Hospital while protesting against outrageous medical fees introduced by the state government.

Numbering about 200, the women with their bulging stomachs, blocked the main entrance to the hospital for hours, demanding that government reverses the new N25,000 charges for normal deliveries and over N50, 000 for complicated deliveries. This amounted to about 300 per cent increase. Gates, who is co-chair of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, had, during an expanded national economic council meeting, also affirmed that Nigeria has the fourth worst maternal mortality rate in the world, ahead of only Sierra Leone, Central African Republic, and Chad. Worst still is that one in every three Nigerian children is chronically malnourished, he had told the gathering.

A UNICEF report on maternal and child health in Nigeria also indicates that the country loses about 2,300 under-five year olds and 145 women of childbearing age, every day. This development, unfortunately, places her as second largest contributor to the under–five and maternal mortality rate in the world. Put differently, a woman’s chance of dying from pregnancy and childbirth in Nigeria is one in 13. While many of these deaths are preventable, coverage and quality of health care services in the country mostly fail the women and children. But if as has been established, a close relationship exists between the well being of the mother and the child, there’s therefore, every need to integrate maternal, newborn and child health interventions in our health policies.

The Ondo example, it appears, would only work to the contrary, for if a poor, village and possibly illiterate woman is slapped with a 300 per cent increase in cost of delivering her baby at a hospital, it is very unlikely she would afford to pay for the service. Next thing will be a resort to local and, possibly, crude ways of delivering her baby, which sometimes result in permanent disabilities or even death. More pathetic is that this is happening in an environment where those in authorities mostly send their wives abroad to have their babies with looted funds. It is also very sad that at a very difficult time like we are in, when many people are losing jobs and new ones hardly created, governments at all levels would be churning out policies that further diminishes human existence. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of people within the labour force, who are unemployed or underemployed, increased from 13.6 million and 17.7 million, respectively in second quarter of 2017 to 15.9 million and 18.0 million in third quarter of 2017. And the downward trend seems to be the order of the day, even right into the first quarter of 2018.

The situation is so bad, to the extent that preventable or treatable infectious diseases such as malaria, pneumonia, diarrhea, measles, HIV/AIDS etc, now account for more than 70 per cent of the estimated one million under-five deaths in Nigeria, simply because most parents cannot afford the needed healthcare services and medicines. The Ondo 300 per cent increase in charges for deliveries is not just outrageous but smirks of government’s insensitivity to a people, whose plight is mostly as a result of greed on the part of those in authority, who wantonly steal from what was meant to take care of all. Unfortunately, in the same Ondo state, students of Adekunle Ajasin University have been protesting government’s increase in school fees by over 500 per cent, a development they described as unacceptable as their parents would not be able to pay?

It is worthy to note, however, that most of the policies devoid of human face are not peculiar to Ondo state. In many states of the federation, the masses are heavily taxed… and made to pay for the reckless and extravagant life styles of the governors, their families and associates which have left almost all the states broke. So, if per adventure the Ondo State Governor, Rotimi Akeredolu (SAN), and indeed, all state governors that constantly come up with unrealistic charges that pauperize their people did not get the Gates’ message clearly as regards the nation’s economic recovery and growth plan, it is necessary to refresh their memory thus: “When you invest in the health, education, and opportunities of the people, you are laying the foundation for sustained prosperity. When you fail to do the above, there is asharp limit on how much the society can grow. By introducing very harsh economic policies, like the unrealistic increase in costs of healthcare and education, will mostly ensure reduction in the quality of life of the people, which right now is even at its lowest.

Read more at: https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/04/cost-baby-ondo/

_________________
The difficulties of statistical thinking describes a puzzling limitation of our mind: our excessive confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent inability to acknowledge the full extent of our ignorance and the uncertainty of the world we live in. We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events -- Daniel Kahneman (2011), Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2018 1:50 pm 
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Enugu II wrote:
txj wrote:
EII,

I think there's a misunderstanding here. I have not and do not question UNICEF data. I live in a world of empirical data!!!

I simply draw attention to its misapplication. The issue for debate is not the Nigerian birth registration system which UNICEF refers to. It is non-existent by most standards.

What I refer to is birth record keeping. They are related but nonetheless distinct issues.

But I would however question the assertion that more children are born outside of healthcare facilities in Nigeria. Because this would depend on what their definition of HC facility is, and whether this be REGISTERED FACILITY or UNREGISTERED.

These are very important distinctions in healthcare, which you may know I am a part of, including in primary care in Nigeria...

The Nigerian system can be a nightmare for formal research....


Txj,

I do understand the difference. See the research by Makinde (Relevant excerpt) posted below that addresses the point you dispute above. I think you underestimate the problem here. Our experiences and those of most people on CE is far from being typical for most Nigerians. Most have births that are not recorded.

Note also the second post that points to the cost for giving birth in a Nigerian hospital and the numbers included in that article about unemployment. That will give you an idea that hospital is not a viable choice for a significant number of Nigerians.

Quote:
https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol35/12/35-12.pdf

A poor pattern of maternal hospital utilization has been observed to negatively influence the chances of survival of children under five years (Antai 2011). Thus improving hospital utilization for delivery, besides having a direct effect on the health of the women concerned, can contribute toward raising birth registration completeness in Nigeria while also improving outcomes for the children born to these women. However, this is a matter of concern, as only 36% of deliveries in Nigeria take place in[color=#FF0000] health facilities, according to the 2013 DHS, a marginal increase from the 2003 estimate of 33%[/color] (National Population Commission, Federal Republic of Nigeria and ICF International, Maryland USA 2014). The persistent poor utilization of health facilities needs to be tackled for this to have an effect on birth registration.


Quote:
Cost of having a baby in Ondo
ON APRIL 14, 20183:10 AMIN SATURDAY TALKING POINT0 COMMENTS
By Rose Moses

When Bill Gates some weeks back, told Nigerian political elites that the country is one of the most dangerous places on earth to give birth, not many would have thought of the drama that played out in Akure, the Ondo State capital, the other week. Pregnant women were reported to have paralyzed activities in the State Specialist Hospital while protesting against outrageous medical fees introduced by the state government.

Numbering about 200, the women with their bulging stomachs, blocked the main entrance to the hospital for hours, demanding that government reverses the new N25,000 charges for normal deliveries and over N50, 000 for complicated deliveries. This amounted to about 300 per cent increase. Gates, who is co-chair of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, had, during an expanded national economic council meeting, also affirmed that Nigeria has the fourth worst maternal mortality rate in the world, ahead of only Sierra Leone, Central African Republic, and Chad. Worst still is that one in every three Nigerian children is chronically malnourished, he had told the gathering.

A UNICEF report on maternal and child health in Nigeria also indicates that the country loses about 2,300 under-five year olds and 145 women of childbearing age, every day. This development, unfortunately, places her as second largest contributor to the under–five and maternal mortality rate in the world. Put differently, a woman’s chance of dying from pregnancy and childbirth in Nigeria is one in 13. While many of these deaths are preventable, coverage and quality of health care services in the country mostly fail the women and children. But if as has been established, a close relationship exists between the well being of the mother and the child, there’s therefore, every need to integrate maternal, newborn and child health interventions in our health policies.

The Ondo example, it appears, would only work to the contrary, for if a poor, village and possibly illiterate woman is slapped with a 300 per cent increase in cost of delivering her baby at a hospital, it is very unlikely she would afford to pay for the service. Next thing will be a resort to local and, possibly, crude ways of delivering her baby, which sometimes result in permanent disabilities or even death. More pathetic is that this is happening in an environment where those in authorities mostly send their wives abroad to have their babies with looted funds. It is also very sad that at a very difficult time like we are in, when many people are losing jobs and new ones hardly created, governments at all levels would be churning out policies that further diminishes human existence. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of people within the labour force, who are unemployed or underemployed, increased from 13.6 million and 17.7 million, respectively in second quarter of 2017 to 15.9 million and 18.0 million in third quarter of 2017. And the downward trend seems to be the order of the day, even right into the first quarter of 2018.

The situation is so bad, to the extent that preventable or treatable infectious diseases such as malaria, pneumonia, diarrhea, measles, HIV/AIDS etc, now account for more than 70 per cent of the estimated one million under-five deaths in Nigeria, simply because most parents cannot afford the needed healthcare services and medicines. The Ondo 300 per cent increase in charges for deliveries is not just outrageous but smirks of government’s insensitivity to a people, whose plight is mostly as a result of greed on the part of those in authority, who wantonly steal from what was meant to take care of all. Unfortunately, in the same Ondo state, students of Adekunle Ajasin University have been protesting government’s increase in school fees by over 500 per cent, a development they described as unacceptable as their parents would not be able to pay?

It is worthy to note, however, that most of the policies devoid of human face are not peculiar to Ondo state. In many states of the federation, the masses are heavily taxed… and made to pay for the reckless and extravagant life styles of the governors, their families and associates which have left almost all the states broke. So, if per adventure the Ondo State Governor, Rotimi Akeredolu (SAN), and indeed, all state governors that constantly come up with unrealistic charges that pauperize their people did not get the Gates’ message clearly as regards the nation’s economic recovery and growth plan, it is necessary to refresh their memory thus: “When you invest in the health, education, and opportunities of the people, you are laying the foundation for sustained prosperity. When you fail to do the above, there is asharp limit on how much the society can grow. By introducing very harsh economic policies, like the unrealistic increase in costs of healthcare and education, will mostly ensure reduction in the quality of life of the people, which right now is even at its lowest.

Read more at: https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/04/cost-baby-ondo/



EII,

I have been involved in developmental research enough to know that you must put every study in the right context. The UNICEF data you posted earlier is ample proof of this.

What is this study's definition of "health facilities" or "maternal hospital"?

Does that include Chief Dr Ogbunigwe Clinic in Mbaitolu-Isiala-Ngwa?

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We watched this very boring video, 500 times, of Sacchi doing defensive drills, using sticks and without the ball, with Maldini, Baresi and Albertini. We used to think before then that if the other players are better, you have to lose. After that we learned anything is possible – you can beat better teams by using tactics." Jurgen Klopp


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:58 am 
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txj wrote:

EII,

I have been involved in developmental research enough to know that you must put every study in the right context. The UNICEF data you posted earlier is ample proof of this.

What is this study's definition of "health facilities" or "maternal hospital"?

Does that include Chief Dr Ogbunigwe Clinic in Mbaitolu-Isiala-Ngwa?



Txj,

Obviously you know more that Dr. Makinde who has been researching health issues in Nigeria for a long while. No further response needed from me. BTW, the UNICEF data was in context dealing with issues of birth registration in Nigeria. Each post that I have made, including the one on Polygraph tests, have been made with reasons that are apparent and disclosed. They have been in all within the context of this particular discourse on age cheating. In any case, your denial of the content of Makinde's work says all that is needed to know. I leave you with the knowledge that you currently have on this matter.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:24 pm 
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Enugu II wrote:
txj wrote:

EII,

I have been involved in developmental research enough to know that you must put every study in the right context. The UNICEF data you posted earlier is ample proof of this.

What is this study's definition of "health facilities" or "maternal hospital"?

Does that include Chief Dr Ogbunigwe Clinic in Mbaitolu-Isiala-Ngwa?



Txj,

Obviously you know more that Dr. Makinde who has been researching health issues in Nigeria for a long while. No further response needed from me.

My comments do not refer to Dr Makinde, the credibility of his research, nor do they seek to make a personal comparison. They are trying to draw your attention to the issues and not to the person.

BTW, the UNICEF data was in context dealing with issues of birth registration in Nigeria. Each post that I have made, including the one on Polygraph tests, have been made with reasons that are apparent and disclosed. They have been in all within the context of this particular discourse on age cheating.

On the contrary, the UNICEF link you posted expressly defines birth registration in the context of an ADMINISTRATIVE SYSTEM OF COORDINATION NATIONALLY, as distinct from simple record keeping.

In any case, your denial of the content of Makinde's work says all that is needed to know. I leave you with the knowledge that you currently have on this matter.

Again, what I have asked is that you look at the context of Makinde's work and specifically how it defines HEALTH FACILITY, which could in turn determine the applicability of his findings.

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Liverpool, European Champions 2005.

We watched this very boring video, 500 times, of Sacchi doing defensive drills, using sticks and without the ball, with Maldini, Baresi and Albertini. We used to think before then that if the other players are better, you have to lose. After that we learned anything is possible – you can beat better teams by using tactics." Jurgen Klopp


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:36 pm 
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Enugu II wrote:
txj wrote:
pajimoh wrote:
txj wrote:
There you go again, accusing me of justifying inaction.

What you don't seem to appreciate and I'm pointing out is the difficulty, cost and the overall need to deal with what is a societal problem. APOLOGIES...
ACCEPTED


Have you ever tried chasing your own documents in Nigeria? Documents are lost and found based on what changes hands.

Have you been told to come back another time because the person you need to see is busy or on holiday? Have you ever been told to write an official letter and wait for a response? YES; I lived and worked in Nigeria- both in govt and prvte coys.

Still doesn't explain whether you grasp the frustrating nature of trying to get people to do what they are paid to do in a timely manner?That is precisely my point. I have lived the experience multiple times over. However it is not about me.

You then expect our lazy NFF to keep going through this everytime they are required to verify a player for every tournament that requires verification. No. They do not have the capacity to do this by themselves, hence the suggestion about using vendors who do this for a living.

I still think you're missing the point and why it's so difficult to rely on anyone in Nigeria to do the right thing. Banks are supposed to do the right thing to laid down local and international guidelines. Do they? Politicians, health sector etc. You now want to outsource the verification process to angels? :rotf: Vendors who do what for a living? :rotf: The NFF will employ the vendors or form their own vendor company, charge the NFF, verify nothing and life goes on. That is the narrative about Naija; the reality is different. There are many reputable coys doing good work in Naija; meeting and exceeding the best professional standards anywhere, under exacting conditions I might add.

How do you know players born after 2000 their number cannot be significant? You trivializes the challenges and make it difficult to come up with an effective solution. Based on eligibility requirements for this category, that is where the MAJORITY of the sample population will be drawn from.

You're now claiming we have authentic record keeping in Nigeria but we also know authentic records can be altered, all for a fee. Isn't that why we said most documents and records cannot be relied upon? Does not change the fact of our record keeping. What you have pointed out is the absence of mechanisms for protecting the validity of records, a criminal justice issue.
We have laws and guidelines to cover most thing in Nigeria. The fact that they are not been followed is why Nigeria a a mess today. Yes we keep records but we also alter those records at will for anyone willing to pay. So what good are such records? You are referring to alteration of records obtained by individuals. That is different from the original records in the system. Besides, there is always the option of use of supporting documents to validate birth records. These are process issues that can easily be addressed.

We are in agreement regarding the will to do the right thing and that cuts across everything in Nigeria. The NFF certainly can be faulted for that but they don't work in isolation. Even if they are willing, how about the support structure, individuals etc. Nigeria is what it is now because hardly anything functions the way it ought. Not just the NFF or our football. True. But the discussion here is specific to the NFF and its lack of will to do the right thing.
And the NFF will have to, in the course of discharging their duties, interact with other groups, institutions and individuals. If they are also corrupt what then? NFF doesn't work in isolation We already agree that no system is foolproof. However, the major factors that prevent the NFF from verifying ages of players is not the result of its interaction with other institutions.

If going to the hospital to verify their record becomes the defacto proof that is required and you think our people will not find a way to circumvent that too then....[color=#FF0000]True. There are also mechanisms to address this. For instance, it is possible to begin the verification process in advance of announcement/invitation of players. Plus, the birth records are only one of several documents. Verification processes often involve the use of proxies (support documents), in this case such as education records, immunization records, church records, etc...In addition, it is also possible to drop players u cannot validate their records, just like the MRI does.../color]





The common mistake of many of us in the diaspora is to automatically assume everything is bad in Nigeria. That is a far cry from reality. Let me give u an example: when the ebola crisis hit Lagos, health systems in the US were prepping for a major disaster/rescue effort, based on the data they have always had about Nigeria. The success of the Nigerian effort was received here with MAJOR SHOCK!!! Some even doubted the outcomes...



Txj,

I agree and the mistake is also believing that NFF cannot do a thing right. Nevertheless, I believe a huge mistake is relying on anecdotal to generalize to a larger Nigerian population on some of the issues that we are discussing here. Research by UNICEF, as well as those by Nigerians on ground, provide far more reliable data than anecdotal on health issues in Nigeria such as childbirths. For instance, your belief that many of the childbirths take place in hospital or a health establishment is inaccurate.

Any one can refer to anecdotal evidence. On Muhammad Pate's appointment as head of Nigeria's Primary Health Care, I sat with him on travel to Nigeria and what he shared with me at that time on the state of maternal healthcare in Nigeria was atrocious. He should know. However, I have not referred to those anecdotal. Instead, I have cited research data on these issues and it is bad. Those are facts, Txj. More children are born outside a health care facility today in Nigeria than they are born inside of such a facility and it explains why they are hardly registered. Moreover, note that apart from cost of birth registration that I mentioned earlier, the cost of childbirth in a hospital in Nigeria is prohibitive for most Nigerians. Now I am not talking of people who are contributing in CE or most of their friends. You need to realize that those are far from being typical Nigerians. Without those records, the best anyone can do (including consultants) is to estimate an actual birthdate but they can never be as definitive as you hope for. That much should be clear.


Prof., while you might claim that more people could be born outside of a healthcare facility than born inside one, I still persist that by the time you are on the radar of the NFF to play youth football you MUST have used a document that stated your declared age prior to you being seen as good enough. You can't enroll in school without immunization records that carries an age declaration. You can't start school without declaring your age. Are you saying that they will start from that early of an age to start falsifying their age with the intention that they might one day blow up and need to reduce their age? Even in the 80's when we were alledged not to have good records, we all knew each other... we knew the ones who were too old to be playing "Mershi" in secondary school. The players, coaches and administrators knew them... they even helped recruit them when we traveled to play zonal games... claiming the real young guys were not mature enough. Just talk to the footballers sef... with their own mouth they will indict themselves. Because they will boast how long they have been playing... whom they have played with... and so forth. These guys just don't drop from Zambisa forest or one bush village no one has not heard of.

The bottom line is collusion on the part of football administrators.

There's NO NEW TALENT PLAYING that does NOT have a history.

The most ridiculous thing about the cheating is that they don't even try to hide their tracks. The just get a document and affix whatever you want them to affix to it. You then go to the actual register and see that the serial number and the date don't match the records of the person in front of them or the person that is supposed to be behind them on the register.

I don't know about the rest of Naijaria but any person who was born in SE Naijaria after the year 2000 and uses an affidavit to declare his age is a CRIMINAL. His intent is to deceive.

Being in Naijaria is turning me violent... the audacity for people to lie in your face as if you are stupid baffles me. I will be like, "you look me finish and you think that stupid story will work on me...?" I have to start wearing slippers just to use to slap people for daring to take me for a fool. :curse: :curse: :curse:

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:43 pm 
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Enugu II wrote:
txj wrote:

EII,

I have been involved in developmental research enough to know that you must put every study in the right context. The UNICEF data you posted earlier is ample proof of this.

What is this study's definition of "health facilities" or "maternal hospital"?

Does that include Chief Dr Ogbunigwe Clinic in Mbaitolu-Isiala-Ngwa?



Txj,

Obviously you know more that Dr. Makinde who has been researching health issues in Nigeria for a long while. No further response needed from me. BTW, the UNICEF data was in context dealing with issues of birth registration in Nigeria. Each post that I have made, including the one on Polygraph tests, have been made with reasons that are apparent and disclosed. They have been in all within the context of this particular discourse on age cheating. In any case, your denial of the content of Makinde's work says all that is needed to know. I leave you with the knowledge that you currently have on this matter.


Prof., birth record at the of birth is not the only valid proof of age. It is used in conjunction with other methods.

When you go to apply for a US identification card or passport they ask for 1 of 3 types of primary documents, a secondary document and at times another 3rd document. The aim is that you have to forge all 3 in order to get the one document that you are seeking.

Always remember we are talking about kids born after 2000.

2000 for god's sake.

In the history of our youth national team, have there been ONE single player that was discovered without having a history?

One?

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I pledge to Nigeria my country
To be faithful, loyal and honest
To serve Nigeria with all my strength
To defend her unity and uphold her honor and glory
So help me God.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 7:03 pm 
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Cellular wrote:
Enugu II wrote:
txj wrote:

EII,

I have been involved in developmental research enough to know that you must put every study in the right context. The UNICEF data you posted earlier is ample proof of this.

What is this study's definition of "health facilities" or "maternal hospital"?

Does that include Chief Dr Ogbunigwe Clinic in Mbaitolu-Isiala-Ngwa?



Txj,

Obviously you know more that Dr. Makinde who has been researching health issues in Nigeria for a long while. No further response needed from me. BTW, the UNICEF data was in context dealing with issues of birth registration in Nigeria. Each post that I have made, including the one on Polygraph tests, have been made with reasons that are apparent and disclosed. They have been in all within the context of this particular discourse on age cheating. In any case, your denial of the content of Makinde's work says all that is needed to know. I leave you with the knowledge that you currently have on this matter.


Prof., birth record at the of birth is not the only valid proof of age. It is used in conjunction with other methods.

When you go to apply for a US identification card or passport they ask for 1 of 3 types of primary documents, a secondary document and at times another 3rd document. The aim is that you have to forge all 3 in order to get the one document that you are seeking.

Always remember we are talking about kids born after 2000.

2000 for god's sake.

In the history of our youth national team, have there been ONE single player that was discovered without having a history?

One?


KPOM!

Even guys like Emenalo, the Late Okwaraji, etc who seemingly came out out nowhere to join the Eagles had history that could be traced.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 8:50 pm 
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Chief Ogbunigwe wrote:
Cellular wrote:
Enugu II wrote:
txj wrote:

EII,

I have been involved in developmental research enough to know that you must put every study in the right context. The UNICEF data you posted earlier is ample proof of this.

What is this study's definition of "health facilities" or "maternal hospital"?

Does that include Chief Dr Ogbunigwe Clinic in Mbaitolu-Isiala-Ngwa?



Txj,

Obviously you know more that Dr. Makinde who has been researching health issues in Nigeria for a long while. No further response needed from me. BTW, the UNICEF data was in context dealing with issues of birth registration in Nigeria. Each post that I have made, including the one on Polygraph tests, have been made with reasons that are apparent and disclosed. They have been in all within the context of this particular discourse on age cheating. In any case, your denial of the content of Makinde's work says all that is needed to know. I leave you with the knowledge that you currently have on this matter.


Prof., birth record at the of birth is not the only valid proof of age. It is used in conjunction with other methods.

When you go to apply for a US identification card or passport they ask for 1 of 3 types of primary documents, a secondary document and at times another 3rd document. The aim is that you have to forge all 3 in order to get the one document that you are seeking.

Always remember we are talking about kids born after 2000.

2000 for god's sake.

In the history of our youth national team, have there been ONE single player that was discovered without having a history?

One?


KPOM!

Even guys like Emenalo, the Late Okwaraji, etc who seemingly came out out nowhere to join the Eagles had history that could be traced.


Chief,

The argument is not about tracing their history, remember. It is about whether we can prove their actual birth date and age. If it is to track their history and estimate probable age then that can be done. But remember that it is that very estimate that MRI also does. The challenge then is to ask whether the estimate using the tracking of record suggested here is better. That may well be.

What I have argued throughout this thread is the idea, suggested by Txj, is that under the Nigerian condition you can 100% track each player's birthdate. That just isn't possible. Someone who does not even have the birthdate recorded is unlikely to have other documents that precisely specify that date of birth. That should be simple enough. As I have mentioned there are many Nigerians today that do not have recorded birth dates. That is borne out by research on those matters. Cell is mentioning collaborating documentations. Which collaborating documentation is going to do what he talks about? Is it the elementary school document that a child attends years after birth? Is it the Declaration of Age where an uncle and perhaps an aunt writes to claim their relationship to the child and their knowledge of the child's birthdate and then swearing of an oath? A document that is relying on the parent's memory, recollection and estimation? That is the question.

The best that you can do is to estimate and BTW I have absolutely no problem doing that estimation in choosing a squad. After all, it is that estimation that MRI currently does.

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The difficulties of statistical thinking describes a puzzling limitation of our mind: our excessive confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent inability to acknowledge the full extent of our ignorance and the uncertainty of the world we live in. We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events -- Daniel Kahneman (2011), Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:06 pm 
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Enugu II wrote:
Chief Ogbunigwe wrote:
Cellular wrote:
Enugu II wrote:
txj wrote:

EII,

I have been involved in developmental research enough to know that you must put every study in the right context. The UNICEF data you posted earlier is ample proof of this.

What is this study's definition of "health facilities" or "maternal hospital"?

Does that include Chief Dr Ogbunigwe Clinic in Mbaitolu-Isiala-Ngwa?



Txj,

Obviously you know more that Dr. Makinde who has been researching health issues in Nigeria for a long while. No further response needed from me. BTW, the UNICEF data was in context dealing with issues of birth registration in Nigeria. Each post that I have made, including the one on Polygraph tests, have been made with reasons that are apparent and disclosed. They have been in all within the context of this particular discourse on age cheating. In any case, your denial of the content of Makinde's work says all that is needed to know. I leave you with the knowledge that you currently have on this matter.


Prof., birth record at the of birth is not the only valid proof of age. It is used in conjunction with other methods.

When you go to apply for a US identification card or passport they ask for 1 of 3 types of primary documents, a secondary document and at times another 3rd document. The aim is that you have to forge all 3 in order to get the one document that you are seeking.

Always remember we are talking about kids born after 2000.

2000 for god's sake.

In the history of our youth national team, have there been ONE single player that was discovered without having a history?

One?


KPOM!

Even guys like Emenalo, the Late Okwaraji, etc who seemingly came out out nowhere to join the Eagles had history that could be traced.


Chief,

The argument is not about tracing their history, remember. It is about whether we can prove their actual birth date and age. If it is to track their history and estimate probable age then that can be done. But remember that it is that very estimate that MRI also does. The challenge then is to ask whether the estimate using the tracking of record suggested here is better. That may well be.

What I have argued throughout this thread is the idea, suggested by Txj, is that under the Nigerian condition you can 100% track each player's birthdate. That just isn't possible. Someone who does not even have the birthdate recorded is unlikely to have other documents that precisely specify that date of birth. That should be simple enough. As I have mentioned there are many Nigerians today that do not have recorded birth dates. That is borne out by research on those matters. Cell is mentioning collaborating documentations. Which collaborating documentation is going to do what he talks about? Is it the elementary school document that a child attends years after birth? Is it the Declaration of Age where an uncle and perhaps an aunt writes to claim their relationship to the child and their knowledge of the child's birthdate and then swearing of an oath? A document that is relying on the parent's memory, recollection and estimation? That is the question.

The best that you can do is to estimate and BTW I have absolutely no problem doing that estimation in choosing a squad. After all, it is that estimation that MRI currently does.


MRI is a pass/fail test. No maybes...
The only benefit of the MRI test is that it helped weed out 50yr old Ghanaians :taunt: :taunt: :taunt:

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PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:51 pm 
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Enugu II wrote:
Chief Ogbunigwe wrote:
Cellular wrote:
Enugu II wrote:
txj wrote:

EII,

I have been involved in developmental research enough to know that you must put every study in the right context. The UNICEF data you posted earlier is ample proof of this.

What is this study's definition of "health facilities" or "maternal hospital"?

Does that include Chief Dr Ogbunigwe Clinic in Mbaitolu-Isiala-Ngwa?



Txj,

Obviously you know more that Dr. Makinde who has been researching health issues in Nigeria for a long while. No further response needed from me. BTW, the UNICEF data was in context dealing with issues of birth registration in Nigeria. Each post that I have made, including the one on Polygraph tests, have been made with reasons that are apparent and disclosed. They have been in all within the context of this particular discourse on age cheating. In any case, your denial of the content of Makinde's work says all that is needed to know. I leave you with the knowledge that you currently have on this matter.


Prof., birth record at the of birth is not the only valid proof of age. It is used in conjunction with other methods.

When you go to apply for a US identification card or passport they ask for 1 of 3 types of primary documents, a secondary document and at times another 3rd document. The aim is that you have to forge all 3 in order to get the one document that you are seeking.

Always remember we are talking about kids born after 2000.

2000 for god's sake.

In the history of our youth national team, have there been ONE single player that was discovered without having a history?

One?


KPOM!

Even guys like Emenalo, the Late Okwaraji, etc who seemingly came out out nowhere to join the Eagles had history that could be traced.


Chief,

The argument is not about tracing their history, remember. It is about whether we can prove their actual birth date and age. If it is to track their history and estimate probable age then that can be done. But remember that it is that very estimate that MRI also does. The challenge then is to ask whether the estimate using the tracking of record suggested here is better. That may well be.

I expect that tracing their history would be a necessary part of the verification process by a credentialing coy, although not explicitly stated in my argument here, as I do not have 1st hand knowledge of the process used in Nigeria. Secondly, the issue, as I have repeatedly stated here is not which approach is better, but how both can be used to make the system function better.

What I have argued throughout this thread is the idea, suggested by Txj, is that under the Nigerian condition you can 100% track each player's birthdate. That just isn't possible.

Again FALSE characterization of my position. There is no system to ensure 100% verification in Nigeria. The goal would be to approach that figure as much as possible.

Someone who does not even have the birthdate recorded is unlikely to have other documents that precisely specify that date of birth. That should be simple enough. As I have mentioned there are many Nigerians today that do not have recorded birth dates. That is borne out by research on those matters.

While in theory, it is possible that some players may not have recorded birth dates, in reality the likelihood is very slim. And even if this were the case, it is doubtful the number of players with no birth records would be significant. Nowhere in the history of Nigerian youth football has it been presented that a lack of birth records was an issue in the verification of players ages. Not ONCE has that ever been reported!

Cell is mentioning collaborating documentations. Which collaborating documentation is going to do what he talks about? Is it the elementary school document that a child attends years after birth? Is it the Declaration of Age where an uncle and perhaps an aunt writes to claim their relationship to the child and their knowledge of the child's birthdate and then swearing of an oath? A document that is relying on the parent's memory, recollection and estimation? That is the question.

There are valid collaborating documents. School documents for instance indicate probable age at start of schooling. Immunization records indicate probable age at time of receipt of child vaccination, because such medications are typically given at a certain age in the growth of a child. In each case, the collaborating document helps prove the likelihood or otherwise of correctness of the player's claim. Which means that if there is sufficient doubt, such a player is dropped, recognizing that you cannot achieve 100% verification...

The best that you can do is to estimate and BTW I have absolutely no problem doing that estimation in choosing a squad. After all, it is that estimation that MRI currently does.

As stated above, that is what the verification process is all about. Recognizing that the suggested new approach is based on commitment of the NFF to ensure use of only age eligible players, and thus depart from the practice of using the MRI to cheat.

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We watched this very boring video, 500 times, of Sacchi doing defensive drills, using sticks and without the ball, with Maldini, Baresi and Albertini. We used to think before then that if the other players are better, you have to lose. After that we learned anything is possible – you can beat better teams by using tactics." Jurgen Klopp


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:44 pm 
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txj wrote:
Enugu II wrote:
aruako1 wrote:
When it comes to a particular player's age I'll accept the MRI over speculation by persons (often faceless) on the internet. If there is more compelling evidence (I know it is a dirty word round these parts) than the MRI that a player is overaged then I'll accept it.


The point is that MRI is a better test than using passports for areas where age cheating is rampant. That much is clear. The point that MRI is not 100% accurate is already a known fact but the error associated with it is an acceptable range of error. IMHO, MRI test deters age cheating and we already see a demonstration of it in the number of Nigerian youth players rejected because of this test.These rejected players would have ordinarily played in the team (With a valid passport) in previous years. The byproduct is Nigeria has clearly found acceptable solutions by building teams from a younger age when the age of the kids are more likely to be accurately determined and likely to pass the MRI test. That is a major and significant improvement.

Guys like Txj point to consultants able to determine age of players but they have not been able to put forward how that process works even though they vouch for it. If there is a viable process out there then it should be examined to determine whether it is in fact more effective than the MRI.




1. There is no disputing the fact that MRI test is better than simple reliance on passports.
HOWEVER, the key issue for me is its use by the NFF to find players who can pass the test, as opposed to identifying players who are as close to their date of birth and thus truly eligible for U-17 football, which makes the MRI, not significantly better and ensures continued cheating by Nigeria.

2. The only certified way of ensuring the 100% use of true age eligible players is an approach that ensures correct verification of the date of natural (or otherwise) birth.

It is a fallacy that Nigeria does not have a record keeping system. The problem is not the system, but the willingness of individuals to cheat, AND ESPECIALLY the lack of will by the NFF to properly verify the age of players and their willingness to COLLUDE with age cheats.

Top coys in Nigeria, like Shell, Exxon-Mobil, UAC, etc verify records routinely, by hiring vendors. They deal with a much, much LARGER sample size, but they do it! The people who present themselves for verification by these coys are no better or worse than our football players. The difference is in the entities involved: NFF that has cheating as a corporate culture, and Shell/Mobil/UAC, whose corporate goal is professional excellence.

The credentialing coys may not have verified ages for the likes of Shell, but such work is within the portfolio of credentialing. The issue raised by EII about their process, while important is secondary. Why? Because the key issue is about capacity/ability. Shell wouldn't retain them if they were incapable or had a history of unprofessionalism...

This is a country that put together the logistics to stop the ebola virus in a mega city!!!!!

3. The issue is not use of MRI vs use of credentialing coys and which one is better. Rather the issue is about:
i. the will of the NFF to stop cheating and commit to use of age appropriate players, whether we win or lose, and therefore use the MRI test as it was designed to be used.

ii. and based on the above, improving the current process by adding a 3rd party credentialing coy to verify the birth and demographic records of players, before their subsequent presentation for an MRI test.



Txj,


So, are you willing now to state that the credentialing companies that you wrote about cannot ensure correct verification of the date of natural (or otherwise) birth? See your full statement below:

The only certified way of ensuring the 100% use of true age eligible players is an approach that ensures correct verification of the date of natural (or otherwise) birth.

If indeed this was your position that the credentialing companies could not do the above (achieve 100% accuracy) why then the debate? When I had mentioned that the best they could do is provide an estimate, why were you debating it then? Or you just wanted to argue eternally? If you had agreed at that point that (considering issues with birth documentations, etc) what they could do is provide their best estimates would that not have eased us into the next step of the debate which is to evaluate which of the two -- MRI and credentialing -- provides the less error in estimates?

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The difficulties of statistical thinking describes a puzzling limitation of our mind: our excessive confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent inability to acknowledge the full extent of our ignorance and the uncertainty of the world we live in. We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events -- Daniel Kahneman (2011), Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 12:07 am 
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Enugu II wrote:
txj wrote:
Enugu II wrote:
aruako1 wrote:
When it comes to a particular player's age I'll accept the MRI over speculation by persons (often faceless) on the internet. If there is more compelling evidence (I know it is a dirty word round these parts) than the MRI that a player is overaged then I'll accept it.


The point is that MRI is a better test than using passports for areas where age cheating is rampant. That much is clear. The point that MRI is not 100% accurate is already a known fact but the error associated with it is an acceptable range of error. IMHO, MRI test deters age cheating and we already see a demonstration of it in the number of Nigerian youth players rejected because of this test.These rejected players would have ordinarily played in the team (With a valid passport) in previous years. The byproduct is Nigeria has clearly found acceptable solutions by building teams from a younger age when the age of the kids are more likely to be accurately determined and likely to pass the MRI test. That is a major and significant improvement.

Guys like Txj point to consultants able to determine age of players but they have not been able to put forward how that process works even though they vouch for it. If there is a viable process out there then it should be examined to determine whether it is in fact more effective than the MRI.




1. There is no disputing the fact that MRI test is better than simple reliance on passports.
HOWEVER, the key issue for me is its use by the NFF to find players who can pass the test, as opposed to identifying players who are as close to their date of birth and thus truly eligible for U-17 football, which makes the MRI, not significantly better and ensures continued cheating by Nigeria.

2. The only certified way of ensuring the 100% use of true age eligible players is an approach that ensures correct verification of the date of natural (or otherwise) birth.

It is a fallacy that Nigeria does not have a record keeping system. The problem is not the system, but the willingness of individuals to cheat, AND ESPECIALLY the lack of will by the NFF to properly verify the age of players and their willingness to COLLUDE with age cheats.

Top coys in Nigeria, like Shell, Exxon-Mobil, UAC, etc verify records routinely, by hiring vendors. They deal with a much, much LARGER sample size, but they do it! The people who present themselves for verification by these coys are no better or worse than our football players. The difference is in the entities involved: NFF that has cheating as a corporate culture, and Shell/Mobil/UAC, whose corporate goal is professional excellence.

The credentialing coys may not have verified ages for the likes of Shell, but such work is within the portfolio of credentialing. The issue raised by EII about their process, while important is secondary. Why? Because the key issue is about capacity/ability. Shell wouldn't retain them if they were incapable or had a history of unprofessionalism...

This is a country that put together the logistics to stop the ebola virus in a mega city!!!!!

3. The issue is not use of MRI vs use of credentialing coys and which one is better. Rather the issue is about:
i. the will of the NFF to stop cheating and commit to use of age appropriate players, whether we win or lose, and therefore use the MRI test as it was designed to be used.

ii. and based on the above, improving the current process by adding a 3rd party credentialing coy to verify the birth and demographic records of players, before their subsequent presentation for an MRI test.



Txj,


So, are you willing now to state that the credentialing companies that you wrote about cannot ensure correct verification of the date of natural (or otherwise) birth? See your full statement below:

The only certified way of ensuring the 100% use of true age eligible players is an approach that ensures correct verification of the date of natural (or otherwise) birth.

If indeed this was your position that the credentialing companies could not do the above (achieve 100% accuracy) why then the debate? When I had mentioned that the best they could do is provide an estimate, why were you debating it then? Or you just wanted to argue eternally? If you had agreed at that point that (considering issues with birth documentations, etc) what they could do is provide their best estimates would that not have eased us into the next step of the debate which is to evaluate which of the two -- MRI and credentialing -- provides the less error in estimates?


While the quoted statement- a generic statement, might be confusing, as Metalaloy noted earlier in this thread, my overall position is clear and consistent, when read together.

My position remains that credentialing coys can ensure correct verification of the date of natural birth. Can they do this in 100% of the case? Absolutely not!

Which is why I made further specific statements on use of credentialing coys:

Quote:
I think it goes without saying that there is no system to guarantee 100% accuracy; nor is it even necessary, which is why I have never claimed such.


Quote:
3. The issue is not use of MRI vs use of credentialing coys and which one is better. Rather the issue is about:
ii. .....improving the current process by adding a 3rd party credentialing coy to verify the birth and demographic records of players, before their subsequent presentation for an MRI test.


Quote:
3. For the record, what I said is that the only complete proof of a player's age is a valid document of his natural birth. NOT 3rd party verification; NOT MRI test; not polygraph....Thus, the best approach for verifying age is one that is most likely to lead us to this end.

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Form is temporary; Class is Permanent!
Liverpool, European Champions 2005.

We watched this very boring video, 500 times, of Sacchi doing defensive drills, using sticks and without the ball, with Maldini, Baresi and Albertini. We used to think before then that if the other players are better, you have to lose. After that we learned anything is possible – you can beat better teams by using tactics." Jurgen Klopp


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2018 5:05 pm 
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11 players from Benin Republic were banned from U17 Nations Cup in Niamey. Does anyone think the test is not reliable?
http://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20180909-foot ... f-can-2019


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