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 Post subject: My World Ranking System
PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:40 pm 
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Posts: 13541
As many of you can see the FIFA rankings are grossly innacurate. This is a well known fact.

Nigeria being ranked in the 40's is frankly a joke as is much the rankings. FIFA has overhauled their system to improve much of the criteria, however the ranking still suffers from its previous innacuracies and it will take a while for the system's new formulas to fully kick in.

However I still have problems with the new system.

Namely the fact that you get 0 points for losing regardless of who you lose against, and by how much. Essentially if you lose by 10-0 to Seychelles, or by 3-2 against Brazil, these are counted as the same.

On the other side you get the same amount of points if you were to beat the same team by 1 goal as you would by 10 goals.

Over a decade ago I devised my own system which is based on a points per game average.

Each team has 30 spots where they enter point scores. Their average points per 30 spots is how they are ranked.

Friendlies and qualifying occupies 1 spot
continental tournaments and Confederations cup occupies 2 spots
World Cup occupies 3 spots

Each team you play is worth a number of points based on their rank. (I initially used FIFA rankings for my first edition)

The #1 ranked team is worth 100 points, #2 worth 99 points and so on until you get to#70. From #70 to #100 they are all worth 30 points.

Once you get past #100 as long as the teams point average is 20 or higher, they are worth 20 points.

If a team has less than a 20 point average per game they are worth 10 points (beating 10 point teams you do not get additional points for goals scored or for away draws or victories)

A victory gives you the full amount of points a team is worth.

A draw and you divide the points by 1.5.

A one goal loss and you divide the points by 3

A two goal loss and you divide the points by 4

A three goal loss and you divide the points by 5

Four goal loss is an automatic 0 points

A two goal victory you add an additional 10 points

Each additional goal is 10 points.

Away victories or Draws is additional 10 points.



So here are a few examples of how this works.


Nigeria's past 2 games against Seychelles and Egypt.

We beat Seychelles 3-1. Seychelles is ranked aprox #150. As following rules above Seychelles has a lower than 20 point per game average therefore a victory over them is worth only 10 points. So out of our 30 spots, this game would replace the spot that is furthest away in time. HOWEVER if the amount of points you get from a Victory will bring your average down, you simply throw the result away. Since getting only 10 points from beating Seychelles would bring our average down we simply ignore this result.

Against Egypt, this team was ranked roughly #50. Therefore we would get 50 points from the victory. So we would put in 50 in the most recent spot of our 30 spots and replace the oldest spot. Again if this victory would bring the average down, it would not be inputed. As 50 is much higher than the 10 from a Seychelles victory, if the 50 would bring our average down, it would be held temporarily until the 50 could be used to bring up the average.

I hope people understand how this works, I can see it may be confusing, however I feel it results in a much more accurate ranking.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:42 pm 
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Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2003 7:40 pm
Posts: 13541
Here is the current ranking after the last FIFA window

I challenge anybody to tell me this is not far more accurate than FIFA. I believe it is more accurate that Elo as well. These rankings tend to drastically under rate African sides and overate the European teams, even the concacaf sides. I have been doing this ranking for well over a decade.

The numbers next to the teams are their points per game average.

1. France - 89
2. Belgium – 87
3. Brazil – 79
4. England – 78
5. Spain - 76
6. Croatia – 75
7. Denmark - 69
8. Colombia – 65
9. Switzerland - 63
10. Germany – 63
11. Portugal – 62
12. Uruguay - 61
13. Holland – 60
14. Sweden - 60
15. Argentina – 59
16. Russia - 56
17. Nigeria - 54
18. Morocco - 54
19. Italy – 54
20. Peru – 54
21. Senegal - 52
22. Japan – 52
23. Mexico - 51
24. Chile – 51
25. Serbia – 51
26. Venezuela – 49
27. Wales - 49
28. Qatar - 48
29. Iran – 47
30. South Korea – 47
31. USA - 46
32. Poland - 46
33. Cameroon - 45
34. Bosnia & H – 45
35. Ireland Rep. - 45
36. Ghana – 44
37. Tunisia – 43
38. Ukraine - 43
39. Romania - 43
40. Burkina Faso – 43
41. Iceland - 42
42. Austria – 42
43. Slovakia – 42
44. South Africa – 41
45. Turkey - 41
46. Ecuador – 40
47. Greece - 40
48. Egypt – 39
49. Paraguay – 39
50. R. Congo - 39
51. Australia – 39
52. Costa Rica – 38
53. Czech. Rep. - 38
54. Ivory Coast - 37
55. Algeria – 37
56. N. Ireland – 37
57. Uganda - 34
58. Bolivia – 34
59. Norway - 34
60. Guinea – 33
61. Scotland - 33
62. Montenegro – 33
63. Zambia - 33
64. Finland – 33
65. Mali – 32
66. Honduras – 32
67. Zimbabwe - 32
68. Hungary – 32
69. Israel - 32
70. Georgia - 32
71. Bulgaria – 31
72. Cape Verde - 31
73. Canada – 30
74. Saudi Arabia -30
75. Slovenia - 30
76. Macedonia - 30
77. Angola – 29
78. Kosovo - 29
79. Albania – 29
80. Panama - 28
81. Kenya – 28
82. Mauritania – 28
83. Tanzania – 27
84. Uzbekistan - 27
85. Syria - 27
86. Iraq – 26
87. Mozambique – 26
88. Togo - 26
89. E. Guinea – 26
90. Malawi - 26
91. Kazakhstan - 25
92. Comoros – 25
93. Sierra Leone - 25
94. Rwanda – 25
95. Trinidad & T – 24
96. UAE - 24
97. Libya - 24
98. Belarus - 24
99. Armenia – 24
100. Gabon - 24
101. El Salvador – 23
102. Haiti - 23
103. Benin – 23
104. Madagascar – 23
105. Namibia – 23
106. New Zealand - 23
107. Liberia - 23
108. Jamaica - 22
109. G. Bissau - 22
110. Gambia - 22
111. Estonia – 22
112. Niger - 22
113. Burundi – 21
114. Cyprus – 21
115. Luxembourg - 21
116. Azerbaijan – 21
117. Jordan – 20
118. Sudan - 20
119. Lebanon – 20
120. Lithuania - 20
121. Kuwait - 20
122. Ethiopia - 20
123. China - 19


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2019 7:07 pm 
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Posts: 14276
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I personally use my eyes koro koro to rate teams but trust Elo rankings more than FIFA.
I'm not too bothered by Nigeria taking advantage of FIFA rules because a Pot 3 team like S.A can easily beat Pinnick's Nigeria.

What irritates me is CAF's lack of a backbone to develop their own ranking system for their tournaments and reliance on a FIFA ranking system that is clearly biased against Africans.

Colo-mentality and corruption appear to run deep in CAF.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2019 7:16 pm 
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Joined: Tue Dec 23, 2003 5:57 pm
Posts: 38206
Location: UK
vancity eagle wrote:
As many of you can see the FIFA rankings are grossly innacurate. This is a well known fact.

Nigeria being ranked in the 40's is frankly a joke as is much the rankings. FIFA has overhauled their system to improve much of the criteria, however the ranking still suffers from its previous innacuracies and it will take a while for the system's new formulas to fully kick in.

However I still have problems with the new system.

Namely the fact that you get 0 points for losing regardless of who you lose against, and by how much. Essentially if you lose by 10-0 to Seychelles, or by 3-2 against Brazil, these are counted as the same.

On the other side you get the same amount of points if you were to beat the same team by 1 goal as you would by 10 goals.

Over a decade ago I devised my own system which is based on a points per game average.

Each team has 30 spots where they enter point scores. Their average points per 30 spots is how they are ranked.

Friendlies and qualifying occupies 1 spot
continental tournaments and Confederations cup occupies 2 spots
World Cup occupies 3 spots

Each team you play is worth a number of points based on their rank. (I initially used FIFA rankings for my first edition)

The #1 ranked team is worth 100 points, #2 worth 99 points and so on until you get to#70. From #70 to #100 they are all worth 30 points.

Once you get past #100 as long as the teams point average is 20 or higher, they are worth 20 points.

If a team has less than a 20 point average per game they are worth 10 points (beating 10 point teams you do not get additional points for goals scored or for away draws or victories)

A victory gives you the full amount of points a team is worth.

A draw and you divide the points by 1.5.

A one goal loss and you divide the points by 3

A two goal loss and you divide the points by 4

A three goal loss and you divide the points by 5

Four goal loss is an automatic 0 points

A two goal victory you add an additional 10 points

Each additional goal is 10 points.

Away victories or Draws is additional 10 points.



So here are a few examples of how this works.


Nigeria's past 2 games against Seychelles and Egypt.

We beat Seychelles 3-1. Seychelles is ranked aprox #150. As following rules above Seychelles has a lower than 20 point per game average therefore a victory over them is worth only 10 points. So out of our 30 spots, this game would replace the spot that is furthest away in time. HOWEVER if the amount of points you get from a Victory will bring your average down, you simply throw the result away. Since getting only 10 points from beating Seychelles would bring our average down we simply ignore this result.

Against Egypt, this team was ranked roughly #50. Therefore we would get 50 points from the victory. So we would put in 50 in the most recent spot of our 30 spots and replace the oldest spot. Again if this victory would bring the average down, it would not be inputed. As 50 is much higher than the 10 from a Seychelles victory, if the 50 would bring our average down, it would be held temporarily until the 50 could be used to bring up the average.

I hope people understand how this works, I can see it may be confusing, however I feel it results in a much more accurate ranking.
Seems a little complicated but that's probably cos I'm in a rush.
There is no reason why you cant try and sell this concept to governing bodies.
Rating systems do not have to be sacrosanct and don't have to be one body's preserve.
If it turns out that your system is seen to be more accurately representative then who knows?

Your rankings look good to me - and its not becos the SE are higher ranked here than on other lists. :thumb:

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:00 pm 
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Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2005 12:43 pm
Posts: 19177
Location: Nsukka
vancity eagle wrote:
As many of you can see the FIFA rankings are grossly innacurate. This is a well known fact.

Nigeria being ranked in the 40's is frankly a joke as is much the rankings. FIFA has overhauled their system to improve much of the criteria, however the ranking still suffers from its previous innacuracies and it will take a while for the system's new formulas to fully kick in.

However I still have problems with the new system.

Namely the fact that you get 0 points for losing regardless of who you lose against, and by how much. Essentially if you lose by 10-0 to Seychelles, or by 3-2 against Brazil, these are counted as the same.

On the other side you get the same amount of points if you were to beat the same team by 1 goal as you would by 10 goals.

Over a decade ago I devised my own system which is based on a points per game average.

Each team has 30 spots where they enter point scores. Their average points per 30 spots is how they are ranked.

Friendlies and qualifying occupies 1 spot
continental tournaments and Confederations cup occupies 2 spots
World Cup occupies 3 spots

Each team you play is worth a number of points based on their rank. (I initially used FIFA rankings for my first edition)

The #1 ranked team is worth 100 points, #2 worth 99 points and so on until you get to#70. From #70 to #100 they are all worth 30 points.

Once you get past #100 as long as the teams point average is 20 or higher, they are worth 20 points.

If a team has less than a 20 point average per game they are worth 10 points (beating 10 point teams you do not get additional points for goals scored or for away draws or victories)

A victory gives you the full amount of points a team is worth.

A draw and you divide the points by 1.5.

A one goal loss and you divide the points by 3

A two goal loss and you divide the points by 4

A three goal loss and you divide the points by 5

Four goal loss is an automatic 0 points

A two goal victory you add an additional 10 points

Each additional goal is 10 points.

Away victories or Draws is additional 10 points.



So here are a few examples of how this works.


Nigeria's past 2 games against Seychelles and Egypt.

We beat Seychelles 3-1. Seychelles is ranked aprox #150. As following rules above Seychelles has a lower than 20 point per game average therefore a victory over them is worth only 10 points. So out of our 30 spots, this game would replace the spot that is furthest away in time. HOWEVER if the amount of points you get from a Victory will bring your average down, you simply throw the result away. Since getting only 10 points from beating Seychelles would bring our average down we simply ignore this result.

Against Egypt, this team was ranked roughly #50. Therefore we would get 50 points from the victory. So we would put in 50 in the most recent spot of our 30 spots and replace the oldest spot. Again if this victory would bring the average down, it would not be inputed. As 50 is much higher than the 10 from a Seychelles victory, if the 50 would bring our average down, it would be held temporarily until the 50 could be used to bring up the average.

I hope people understand how this works, I can see it may be confusing, however I feel it results in a much more accurate ranking.



Nigeria at 17? I nearly spilled my drink! :rotf: :rotf:

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:20 pm 
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Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 6:41 am
Posts: 37083
Location: Land of the Terrapins
Jubril Ogolo wrote:
vancity eagle wrote:
As many of you can see the FIFA rankings are grossly innacurate. This is a well known fact.

Nigeria being ranked in the 40's is frankly a joke as is much the rankings. FIFA has overhauled their system to improve much of the criteria, however the ranking still suffers from its previous innacuracies and it will take a while for the system's new formulas to fully kick in.

However I still have problems with the new system.

Namely the fact that you get 0 points for losing regardless of who you lose against, and by how much. Essentially if you lose by 10-0 to Seychelles, or by 3-2 against Brazil, these are counted as the same.

On the other side you get the same amount of points if you were to beat the same team by 1 goal as you would by 10 goals.

Over a decade ago I devised my own system which is based on a points per game average.

Each team has 30 spots where they enter point scores. Their average points per 30 spots is how they are ranked.

Friendlies and qualifying occupies 1 spot
continental tournaments and Confederations cup occupies 2 spots
World Cup occupies 3 spots

Each team you play is worth a number of points based on their rank. (I initially used FIFA rankings for my first edition)

The #1 ranked team is worth 100 points, #2 worth 99 points and so on until you get to#70. From #70 to #100 they are all worth 30 points.

Once you get past #100 as long as the teams point average is 20 or higher, they are worth 20 points.

If a team has less than a 20 point average per game they are worth 10 points (beating 10 point teams you do not get additional points for goals scored or for away draws or victories)

A victory gives you the full amount of points a team is worth.

A draw and you divide the points by 1.5.

A one goal loss and you divide the points by 3

A two goal loss and you divide the points by 4

A three goal loss and you divide the points by 5

Four goal loss is an automatic 0 points

A two goal victory you add an additional 10 points

Each additional goal is 10 points.

Away victories or Draws is additional 10 points.



So here are a few examples of how this works.


Nigeria's past 2 games against Seychelles and Egypt.

We beat Seychelles 3-1. Seychelles is ranked aprox #150. As following rules above Seychelles has a lower than 20 point per game average therefore a victory over them is worth only 10 points. So out of our 30 spots, this game would replace the spot that is furthest away in time. HOWEVER if the amount of points you get from a Victory will bring your average down, you simply throw the result away. Since getting only 10 points from beating Seychelles would bring our average down we simply ignore this result.

Against Egypt, this team was ranked roughly #50. Therefore we would get 50 points from the victory. So we would put in 50 in the most recent spot of our 30 spots and replace the oldest spot. Again if this victory would bring the average down, it would not be inputed. As 50 is much higher than the 10 from a Seychelles victory, if the 50 would bring our average down, it would be held temporarily until the 50 could be used to bring up the average.

I hope people understand how this works, I can see it may be confusing, however I feel it results in a much more accurate ranking.



Nigeria at 17? I nearly spilled my drink! :rotf: :rotf:


This is coming from a Nigerian, what do you expect. Nigeria 17th in what world? Guess your blinders were on at the last world cup both the pre tournament games and the tournament itself. I thought that would have opened our eyes as to how poor we are...

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2019 10:34 pm 
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Posts: 16948
Location: Super Eagles Homeland
vancity eagle wrote:
Here is the current ranking after the last FIFA window

I challenge anybody to tell me this is not far more accurate than FIFA. I believe it is more accurate that Elo as well. These rankings tend to drastically under rate African sides and overate the European teams, even the concacaf sides. I have been doing this ranking for well over a decade.

The numbers next to the teams are their points per game average.

1. France - 89
2. Belgium – 87
3. Brazil – 79
4. England – 78
5. Spain - 76
6. Croatia – 75
7. Denmark - 69
8. Colombia – 65
9. Switzerland - 63
10. Germany – 63
11. Portugal – 62
12. Uruguay - 61
13. Holland – 60
14. Sweden - 60
15. Argentina – 59
16. Russia - 56
17. Nigeria - 54
18. Morocco - 54
19. Italy – 54
20. Peru – 54
21. Senegal - 52
22. Japan – 52
23. Mexico - 51
24. Chile – 51
25. Serbia – 51
26. Venezuela – 49
27. Wales - 49
28. Qatar - 48
29. Iran – 47
30. South Korea – 47
31. USA - 46
32. Poland - 46
33. Cameroon - 45
34. Bosnia & H – 45
35. Ireland Rep. - 45
36. Ghana – 44
37. Tunisia – 43
38. Ukraine - 43
39. Romania - 43
40. Burkina Faso – 43
41. Iceland - 42
42. Austria – 42
43. Slovakia – 42
44. South Africa – 41
45. Turkey - 41
46. Ecuador – 40
47. Greece - 40
48. Egypt – 39
49. Paraguay – 39
50. R. Congo - 39
51. Australia – 39
52. Costa Rica – 38
53. Czech. Rep. - 38
54. Ivory Coast - 37
55. Algeria – 37
56. N. Ireland – 37
57. Uganda - 34
58. Bolivia – 34
59. Norway - 34
60. Guinea – 33
61. Scotland - 33
62. Montenegro – 33
63. Zambia - 33
64. Finland – 33
65. Mali – 32
66. Honduras – 32
67. Zimbabwe - 32
68. Hungary – 32
69. Israel - 32
70. Georgia - 32
71. Bulgaria – 31
72. Cape Verde - 31
73. Canada – 30
74. Saudi Arabia -30
75. Slovenia - 30
76. Macedonia - 30
77. Angola – 29
78. Kosovo - 29
79. Albania – 29
80. Panama - 28
81. Kenya – 28
82. Mauritania – 28
83. Tanzania – 27
84. Uzbekistan - 27
85. Syria - 27
86. Iraq – 26
87. Mozambique – 26
88. Togo - 26
89. E. Guinea – 26
90. Malawi - 26
91. Kazakhstan - 25
92. Comoros – 25
93. Sierra Leone - 25
94. Rwanda – 25
95. Trinidad & T – 24
96. UAE - 24
97. Libya - 24
98. Belarus - 24
99. Armenia – 24
100. Gabon - 24
101. El Salvador – 23
102. Haiti - 23
103. Benin – 23
104. Madagascar – 23
105. Namibia – 23
106. New Zealand - 23
107. Liberia - 23
108. Jamaica - 22
109. G. Bissau - 22
110. Gambia - 22
111. Estonia – 22
112. Niger - 22
113. Burundi – 21
114. Cyprus – 21
115. Luxembourg - 21
116. Azerbaijan – 21
117. Jordan – 20
118. Sudan - 20
119. Lebanon – 20
120. Lithuania - 20
121. Kuwait - 20
122. Ethiopia - 20
123. China - 19



IMO, this ranking has far more meaning than FIFA's ranking which makes no sense in real time. However, I acknowledge that while VE's ranking seems to focus on realtime which is what people expect, FIFA's ranking is NOT focused on realtime. It is based on a 4-year evaluation cycle. As for why African teams appear cheated by the ranking, the reason is clear. The coefficient system used by FIFA is absolute rubbish where you get better outcome playing against Luxembourg as per coefficient than you will get playing against Ghana. Just ridiculous.

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The difficulties of statistical thinking describes a puzzling limitation of our mind: our excessive confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent inability to acknowledge the full extent of our ignorance and the uncertainty of the world we live in. We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events -- Daniel Kahneman (2011), Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics


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