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PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2019 7:40 am 

Joined: Sat Jan 03, 2004 4:21 pm
Posts: 10632

PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2019 11:50 am 
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Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 2:39 am
Posts: 17581
Location: Super Eagles Homeland
chief nfachairman wrote:
Damunk wrote:
Orion wrote:
Damunk wrote:
Orion wrote:
Only 3 players from the AFCON 2013 winning team and that's only 6 years ago. Obi, Musa and Omeruo.
Good observation.
Our turnover rate is really high.
Both players and coaches.
Yet, we perpetually have the youngest teams in tournaments.
Something is not right.

Maybe now, things are beginning to settle down.

Yes, if we had the youngest or one of the youngest teams then those players should've been around longer.

It would mean that we either we have so much talent that players are simply unable to keep their place in the team that long (not true), or the current system (or environment) is not producing the kind of talent that would stand the test of time like Yekini, Okocha, Finidi, Keshi, Obi etc.

Definitely the latter.
You can see from the list below that very few of them would make today's squad even if they retained the form they were in at the time.

Those that have soared or at least kept their form are still with us. A few have retired* professionally. The rest are basically nowhere to be found.

Nigeria AFCON 2013 squad
1 GK Vincent Enyeama*
2 DF Joseph Yobo (c)*
3 DF Elderson Echiéjilé
4 MF Nwankwo Obiorah
5 DF Efe Ambrose
6 DF Azubuike Egwuekwe
7 FW Ahmed Musa
8 FW Brown Ideye
9 FW Emmanuel Emenike
10 MF John Obi Mikel
11 FW Victor Moses* : Still playing top level with a CL level team.
12 MF Reuben Gabriel
13 MF Fegor Ogude
14 DF Godfrey Oboabona
15 FW Ikechukwu Uche
16 GK Austin Ejide
17 MF Ogenyi Onazi: Very much still around but didnt make it to AFCON due to injury.
18 MF Ejike Uzoenyi
19 MF Sunday Mba
20 MF Nosa Igiebor
21 DF Juwon Oshaniwa
22 DF Kenneth Omeruo
23 GK Chigozie Agbim

Ive added 2 more making it 5 still playing top football from the 2013 squad.

Ive noticed 2 things:
1. Nigerian footballers play their peak football at 26 and by 27 they are china, or lower league ready (pre-retirement). But in the last 3yrs, it seems to have increased to 28 as peak age, and 29 as china ready age.

2. We didnt have good sets of players as of 2013. Keshi did well by using MIkel and MOses as fulcrum of the team, with a mix of upcoming, and strugglers to win the ANC. Today, we have far better choices.

Question is, in another 6yrs, would we have 50% of the players in this year's ANC making the 2025 squad? Me thinks 10/11 of them would remain.

chief nfachairman,

50%? That won't happen bros. The only way it happens is if Rohr is still coach. You need to factor in the coaching element. Selecting players often depends on the coach's subjectivity. There will be new players emerging between now and 2025 and I suspect the turnover will be big and yet normal. Thus,the retention will be less than 50% six years from now except if the same coach. Even now, if another coach is in place, I can predict that several guys may not even be in the SE today -- Uzoho, Shehu, Balogun, Etebo, Simon, Ighalo for instance. Another coach may go with several other Nigerians playing right now that are not here e.g. Azubuike Okechukwu, new striker (add name), new midfielder (add name), new defender (add name), etc. The point is that there is some subjectivity in player selection, always.

The #2 claim about the quality of players in 2013 is inaccurate, IMO. If Keshi was coaching today you may still see some of those players playing today and Nigeria winning with them. For instance, Emenike, Oboabona, Vince, Vic Mo, Efe, may still be there. Who knows? It is not like Ighalo has been a drastic improvement over Emenike or Balogun over Oboabona, and definitely Uzoho isn't over Enyeama etc. These things are based on subjective decisions by the coach. Note also that by featuring for the SE it also would influence opportunities provided at the club level (viz Emenike, Efe situation today).

The difficulties of statistical thinking describes a puzzling limitation of our mind: our excessive confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent inability to acknowledge the full extent of our ignorance and the uncertainty of the world we live in. We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events -- Daniel Kahneman (2011), Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics

PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2019 7:26 pm 

Joined: Tue Dec 30, 2003 9:38 pm
Posts: 2375
Keshi's squads tended to have more questionable selections than most.

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