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PostPosted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 11:43 am 
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Orion wrote:
Enugu II wrote:
Orion wrote:
Enugu II wrote:
Orion wrote:
We would have won this AFCON had Algeria not taken everyone by surprise and regained their form as the current best team in Africa. That World Cup qualifying side would not have defeated this Algerian side but I think they would have given them a harder game with Moses in the team, and Obi and Balogun in much better form.

Orion

Na real was. So Senegal would just have laid down for Nigeria? Btw, Senegal has had the upper hand against Nigeria in recent games and would have been favored in the final against Nigeria. Thus, your claim is a bit unusual. Sure Nigeria would have had chance but Senegal definitely would have been the favored team.

Senegal is a good side but they had an easier path to the final. They struggled against Tunisia and were easily handled by Algeria TWICE. Couldn't score a single goal in 180 minutes. I would say both teams are about even but had we reached the final I would have given Nigeria the slight edge mentally due to the fact we've played the final game more times and won the cup 3 times.


As a Nigerian fan you would and of course you would have also expected Nigeria to beat Algeria ands perhaps every other African foe. But most of the world definitely would not. Note that Nigeria had lost to Madagascar and Senegal lost to who? Algeria, a team that had literally destroyed the opposition throughout. No neutral would have picked Nigeria as favorite against Senegal in the final. Thus, I am talking about persons who aren't biased in their analysis or had a 'horse in the race.' Note that Senegal had also recently demonstrated its strength over Nigeria in recent face-to-face contests.

This is all based on if we'd gotten there of course. The fact is we never got there but had we reached the final I'm not so sure it would have been a clear cut Senegal is seen as the favourite. People would take history into account as well. The team that has reached the final more times and won 3 cups (against the other team's 0 cups) can't just be written off as underdogs.

You talk about Senegal's recent dominance over Nigeria... are you talking about that closed friendly match that was like a kick in the park or the U20 world cup game?

Things ebb and flow of course but Nigeria has been the more dominant of both sides in both youth and senior football over the years. Our last U20 and U23 wins were in Senegal and we defeated Senegal at home if I'm not mistaken.

As for senior football, we've got a better H2D, even if you break it down to recent times like in the last 20 years.

https://www.11v11.com/teams/nigeria/tab ... n/Senegal/


Orion

You appear to stretch it a bit. Senegal is ranked ahead of Nigeria and for sometime. They recently beat Nigeria 1-0 in a friendly as you pointed out. Before then, Nigeria forced Senegal to a draw on a penalty kick. None of those things point to Nigeria being favored in an AFCON final v Senegal. Moreover, Senegal has higher profiles guys. When last did Nigeria beat Senegal? You appear to go back a long waaaaaay!! We are talking of recent times in era of Mikel and Mane. That is more meaningful in determining who will be favored. No neutral would have favored Nigeria over Senegal at the 2019 AFCON. Not possible. Same way Algeria was favored against Nigeria at the same tournament.

Your analysis appears to be based on your position as a Nigerian fan. I would think similarly as a fan, btw. However, the point here is to think like a neutral and consider recent records. Take that fan hat off for just a moment.

_________________
The difficulties of statistical thinking describes a puzzling limitation of our mind: our excessive confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent inability to acknowledge the full extent of our ignorance and the uncertainty of the world we live in. We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events -- Daniel Kahneman (2011), Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics


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