deanotito wrote:Many people on here trivialize the appointment of a new coach. They really don't understand how much of a gamble it is.
First, let me point out that there is a risk firing Rohr. It is a financial settlement risk and considering NFF finances (and the fact that NFF may likely be made to pay this up) this is a substantial risk especially when one considers that Nigeria is on track to reach the AFCON finals.
Hoewever, your calculation that there is a major risk of getting a worse coach is doubtful. I am not exactly sure how you calculated that risk. It may help if you can share the reasoning behind that calculation.
On the contrary, I find the risk to be low. This calculation is based on the following:
1. Nigeria has more often than not qualified for the AFCON finals since 1976. This is a period of 50 years in a biennial competition. That is a huge qualification likelihood at every qualification series.
2. At least three of four finals that Nigeria failed to reach were explained by upheavals (The other two -- 1996 & 1998) was based on crisis concerning Sani Abacha government). The first, 1986, being the absence of the Head coach in a crucial qualification game v Zambia (re: Udemezue), Siasia ill-advised attacking for additional goals instead of defending a lead against Guinea (2012), NFF battling of Keshi in the midst of important qualifiers (2015), and then a quirk meeting against Egypt during a qualifier (2017). But even then, these four episodes constitute a small number of finals that Nigeria did not get to given that the competition is once every two years regardless of who the Manager was!
3. Nigeria has only failed to get third place in only 1982 and 2008. In essence, Nigeria invariably medals when it gets to the tournament finals: 1976, 1978, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1990, 1992, 1994, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2010, 2013, 2019.
4. Bear in mind that most of the above was achieved in AFCON finals with 8 and then 16 teams. Since 2019, 24 teams now get to the finals. This makes it even a shoo-in for the likes of Nigeria making the odds far more favorable.
** Given the above, the odds favor not doing worse with a new coach given what Rohr has achieved with the team. I will play those odds with high optimism!
b given Nigeria's ranking in Africa and the fact that as many as 24 teams now get to the AFCON finals.
The World Cup
1. This is of course a far more difficult odds to play.
2. However, since 1994, Nigeria has reached the WC finals in 1994, 1998, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018! We have only missed one finals in 2006. These feats have been achieved with different coaches both foreign and local.
3. At the WC itself, Rohr lost in the opening round. A new coach getting there will do no worse!
The bottomline is Rohr has done nothing extraordinary. He is a middling coach for Nigeria at best and it will not be difficult to find someone who will do no worse.
However, the hope will be to find someone to do better. That lessens the odds but to find someone to do like Rohr is much easier than you make it seem given the above odds.
If you think about it, what Rohr achieved with Nigeria can be attributed mostly to the fact that he was managing Nigeria! He did nothing close during his time in Niger, Gabon, and Burkina Faso. The only remarkable thing that Rohr ever did in his coaching career is taking Bourdeau to the UEFA Cup final in 1996! He isn't a remarkable manager.