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PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:22 pm 
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danfo driver wrote:
Damunk wrote:
Tobi17 wrote:
deanotito wrote:
Many people on here trivialize the appointment of a new coach. They really don't understand how much of a gamble it is.

Well Algeria took that gamble, and we all know how that turned out... what's the essence of life without taking a gamble sometimes?
That's fine.
But can we handle the turbulence that comes with the gamble?
History will tell us NO.
I fear for Amuneke dem, even more than the SE.


Adarabioyo also took a gamble, while you told him to be afraid of change and remain at City! Thank God the boy did not listen and look at him now. :D
See danfo wayo.
No shame in your game. :rotf:

The guy wanted to fight for his place at the highest level in Man City.
You said he shouldn't bother and should settle for less.
He took his chances anyway.

Small time now, you will accuse somebody of "lacking ambition" and being "a coward".
Anyway, danfo drivers are not known for their honesty and rarely talk much sense, so no surprises here.
:taunt: :taunt: :taunt:

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:43 pm 
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Enugu II wrote:
deanotito wrote:
Many people on here trivialize the appointment of a new coach. They really don't understand how much of a gamble it is.


deanotito,

First, let me point out that there is a risk firing Rohr. It is a financial settlement risk and considering NFF finances (and the fact that NFF may likely be made to pay this up) this is a substantial risk especially when one considers that Nigeria is on track to reach the AFCON finals.

Hoewever, your calculation that there is a major risk of getting a worse coach is doubtful. I am not exactly sure how you calculated that risk. It may help if you can share the reasoning behind that calculation.

On the contrary, I find the risk to be low. This calculation is based on the following:

AFCON
1. Nigeria has more often than not qualified for the AFCON finals since 1976. This is a period of 50 years in a biennial competition. That is a huge qualification likelihood at every qualification series.

2. At least three of four finals that Nigeria failed to reach were explained by upheavals (The other two -- 1996 & 1998) was based on crisis concerning Sani Abacha government). The first, 1986, being the absence of the Head coach in a crucial qualification game v Zambia (re: Udemezue), Siasia ill-advised attacking for additional goals instead of defending a lead against Guinea (2012), NFF battling of Keshi in the midst of important qualifiers (2015), and then a quirk meeting against Egypt during a qualifier (2017). But even then, these four episodes constitute a small number of finals that Nigeria did not get to given that the competition is once every two years regardless of who the Manager was!

3. Nigeria has only failed to get third place in only 1982 and 2008. In essence, Nigeria invariably medals when it gets to the tournament finals: 1976, 1978, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1990, 1992, 1994, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2010, 2013, 2019.

4. Bear in mind that most of the above was achieved in AFCON finals with 8 and then 16 teams. Since 2019, 24 teams now get to the finals. This makes it even a shoo-in for the likes of Nigeria making the odds far more favorable.

** Given the above, the odds favor not doing worse with a new coach given what Rohr has achieved with the team. I will play those odds with high optimism!b given Nigeria's ranking in Africa and the fact that as many as 24 teams now get to the AFCON finals.


The World Cup
1. This is of course a far more difficult odds to play.

2. However, since 1994, Nigeria has reached the WC finals in 1994, 1998, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018! We have only missed one finals in 2006. These feats have been achieved with different coaches both foreign and local.

3. At the WC itself, Rohr lost in the opening round. A new coach getting there will do no worse!


Dean,

The bottomline is Rohr has done nothing extraordinary. He is a middling coach for Nigeria at best and it will not be difficult to find someone who will do no worse.

However, the hope will be to find someone to do better. That lessens the odds but to find someone to do like Rohr is much easier than you make it seem given the above odds.

If you think about it, what Rohr achieved with Nigeria can be attributed mostly to the fact that he was managing Nigeria! He did nothing close during his time in Niger, Gabon, and Burkina Faso. The only remarkable thing that Rohr ever did in his coaching career is taking Bourdeau to the UEFA Cup final in 1996! He isn't a remarkable manager.



Enugu,

What you and many others think some of us are saying is that Rohr is perfect/an excellent coach. No! What we are really saying is that Rohr has largely met his targets, and in some cases, exceeded them. He deserves to keep his job until he fails...And he hasn't failed.

Now, with respect to managerial risk....My brother, most coaches fail. There are very few Alex Fergusons in this world...so most coaching experiments end up in quick failure and replacement. Those are the odds you deal with when you get into the coaching market. If I am to make the very reasonable assumption that Nigeria would only be able to attract:

1. B/C-grade coaches like Rohr
2. An ex-Nigeria international who hasn't been given enough opportunity

...then the RISK is even greater. Lets consider our last few SE coaches:

Oliseh: Failure
Siasia: Failure
Keshi: Success, but did fail to qualify for an Afcon...which, I would say for Nigeria, is a fireable offense.


So our choices are [insert name of journeyman foreigner] or Egu/Amunike/Finidi....so on what basis do I have to believe they will exceed Rohr....For the journeyman, almost 0..Higher chance they do worse. For the Egu/Amunike/Finidi bucket, you are pretty much playing the lottery.

So, this is why I say most people underestimate the risk in replacing a successful coach. If the NFF can line up a truly top tier coaching candidate, I will hear...but no be today they born us. They will start coaching search, we will hear rumors about Harry Redknapp being approached and Arigo Sacchi being sounded out, and that someone visited the home of 82 year old Guy Roux trying to convince him to unretire.....And then, the NFF will announce that they have offered a contract to Mr. So and So Nobody European. Worse still, they could try hire big name/no accomplishment people like Kluivert or Henry or Seedorf (who Rohr trounced)...and we will just spend another several years waiting for paradise that won't come.

Let Rohr fail first before you replace him. This is craziness.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 7:35 pm 
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deanotito wrote:
Enugu II wrote:
deanotito wrote:
Many people on here trivialize the appointment of a new coach. They really don't understand how much of a gamble it is.


deanotito,

First, let me point out that there is a risk firing Rohr. It is a financial settlement risk and considering NFF finances (and the fact that NFF may likely be made to pay this up) this is a substantial risk especially when one considers that Nigeria is on track to reach the AFCON finals.

Hoewever, your calculation that there is a major risk of getting a worse coach is doubtful. I am not exactly sure how you calculated that risk. It may help if you can share the reasoning behind that calculation.

On the contrary, I find the risk to be low. This calculation is based on the following:

AFCON
1. Nigeria has more often than not qualified for the AFCON finals since 1976. This is a period of 50 years in a biennial competition. That is a huge qualification likelihood at every qualification series.

2. At least three of four finals that Nigeria failed to reach were explained by upheavals (The other two -- 1996 & 1998) was based on crisis concerning Sani Abacha government). The first, 1986, being the absence of the Head coach in a crucial qualification game v Zambia (re: Udemezue), Siasia ill-advised attacking for additional goals instead of defending a lead against Guinea (2012), NFF battling of Keshi in the midst of important qualifiers (2015), and then a quirk meeting against Egypt during a qualifier (2017). But even then, these four episodes constitute a small number of finals that Nigeria did not get to given that the competition is once every two years regardless of who the Manager was!

3. Nigeria has only failed to get third place in only 1982 and 2008. In essence, Nigeria invariably medals when it gets to the tournament finals: 1976, 1978, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1990, 1992, 1994, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2010, 2013, 2019.

4. Bear in mind that most of the above was achieved in AFCON finals with 8 and then 16 teams. Since 2019, 24 teams now get to the finals. This makes it even a shoo-in for the likes of Nigeria making the odds far more favorable.

** Given the above, the odds favor not doing worse with a new coach given what Rohr has achieved with the team. I will play those odds with high optimism!b given Nigeria's ranking in Africa and the fact that as many as 24 teams now get to the AFCON finals.


The World Cup
1. This is of course a far more difficult odds to play.

2. However, since 1994, Nigeria has reached the WC finals in 1994, 1998, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018! We have only missed one finals in 2006. These feats have been achieved with different coaches both foreign and local.

3. At the WC itself, Rohr lost in the opening round. A new coach getting there will do no worse!


Dean,

The bottomline is Rohr has done nothing extraordinary. He is a middling coach for Nigeria at best and it will not be difficult to find someone who will do no worse.

However, the hope will be to find someone to do better. That lessens the odds but to find someone to do like Rohr is much easier than you make it seem given the above odds.

If you think about it, what Rohr achieved with Nigeria can be attributed mostly to the fact that he was managing Nigeria! He did nothing close during his time in Niger, Gabon, and Burkina Faso. The only remarkable thing that Rohr ever did in his coaching career is taking Bourdeau to the UEFA Cup final in 1996! He isn't a remarkable manager.



Enugu,

What you and many others think some of us are saying is that Rohr is perfect/an excellent coach. No! What we are really saying is that Rohr has largely met his targets, and in some cases, exceeded them. He deserves to keep his job until he fails...And he hasn't failed.

Now, with respect to managerial risk....My brother, most coaches fail. There are very few Alex Fergusons in this world...so most coaching experiments end up in quick failure and replacement. Those are the odds you deal with when you get into the coaching market. If I am to make the very reasonable assumption that Nigeria would only be able to attract:

1. B/C-grade coaches like Rohr
2. An ex-Nigeria international who hasn't been given enough opportunity

...then the RISK is even greater. Lets consider our last few SE coaches:

Oliseh: Failure
Siasia: Failure
Keshi: Success, but did fail to qualify for an Afcon...which, I would say for Nigeria, is a fireable offense.


So our choices are [insert name of journeyman foreigner] or Egu/Amunike/Finidi....so on what basis do I have to believe they will exceed Rohr....For the journeyman, almost 0..Higher chance they do worse. For the Egu/Amunike/Finidi bucket, you are pretty much playing the lottery.

So, this is why I say most people underestimate the risk in replacing a successful coach. If the NFF can line up a truly top tier coaching candidate, I will hear...but no be today they born us. They will start coaching search, we will hear rumors about Harry Redknapp being approached and Arigo Sacchi being sounded out, and that someone visited the home of 82 year old Guy Roux trying to convince him to unretire.....And then, the NFF will announce that they have offered a contract to Mr. So and So Nobody European. Worse still, they could try hire big name/no accomplishment people like Kluivert or Henry or Seedorf (who Rohr trounced)...and we will just spend another several years waiting for paradise that won't come.

Let Rohr fail first before you replace him. This is craziness.


deanotito,

I have not disagreed with the claim that Rohr has NOT YET failed. That is not the point that I made or intended to make.

Instead, the point I make is that REPLACING ROHR, based on his current record, with a manager who is likely to achieve what Rohr has done so far is highly probable than unlikely. In essence, Rohr has done nothing spectacular so far to set the bar so high that the likelihood of getting a successor to achieve similar becomes difficult. Instead, what Rohr has achieved so far is quite average for most coaches who have managed Nigeria.

The managers that have achieved more and have set a high bar do not include Gernot Rohr. If you seek to know those guys then look towards Clemens Westerhoff and Stephen Keshi at the very top. The next cadre may then include Shaibu Amodu.

At Rohr's level are the likes of Festus Onigbinde, Augustine Eguavoen, etc. Although Eguavoen's tenure was far shorter than Rohr's.

Below that level will be Samson Siasia, Christian Chukwu (He did win an AFCON bronze, BTW).

In essence, the chances of getting a coach to match Rohr's current achievement is more likely than not. The tougher task is getting a coach to match the likes of Westerhoff and Keshi BUT not Rohr.

_________________
The difficulties of statistical thinking describes a puzzling limitation of our mind: our excessive confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent inability to acknowledge the full extent of our ignorance and the uncertainty of the world we live in. We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events -- Daniel Kahneman (2011), Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 7:51 pm 
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Enugu II wrote:
deanotito wrote:
Enugu II wrote:
deanotito wrote:
Many people on here trivialize the appointment of a new coach. They really don't understand how much of a gamble it is.


deanotito,

First, let me point out that there is a risk firing Rohr. It is a financial settlement risk and considering NFF finances (and the fact that NFF may likely be made to pay this up) this is a substantial risk especially when one considers that Nigeria is on track to reach the AFCON finals.

Hoewever, your calculation that there is a major risk of getting a worse coach is doubtful. I am not exactly sure how you calculated that risk. It may help if you can share the reasoning behind that calculation.

On the contrary, I find the risk to be low. This calculation is based on the following:

AFCON
1. Nigeria has more often than not qualified for the AFCON finals since 1976. This is a period of 50 years in a biennial competition. That is a huge qualification likelihood at every qualification series.

2. At least three of four finals that Nigeria failed to reach were explained by upheavals (The other two -- 1996 & 1998) was based on crisis concerning Sani Abacha government). The first, 1986, being the absence of the Head coach in a crucial qualification game v Zambia (re: Udemezue), Siasia ill-advised attacking for additional goals instead of defending a lead against Guinea (2012), NFF battling of Keshi in the midst of important qualifiers (2015), and then a quirk meeting against Egypt during a qualifier (2017). But even then, these four episodes constitute a small number of finals that Nigeria did not get to given that the competition is once every two years regardless of who the Manager was!

3. Nigeria has only failed to get third place in only 1982 and 2008. In essence, Nigeria invariably medals when it gets to the tournament finals: 1976, 1978, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1990, 1992, 1994, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2010, 2013, 2019.

4. Bear in mind that most of the above was achieved in AFCON finals with 8 and then 16 teams. Since 2019, 24 teams now get to the finals. This makes it even a shoo-in for the likes of Nigeria making the odds far more favorable.

** Given the above, the odds favor not doing worse with a new coach given what Rohr has achieved with the team. I will play those odds with high optimism!b given Nigeria's ranking in Africa and the fact that as many as 24 teams now get to the AFCON finals.


The World Cup
1. This is of course a far more difficult odds to play.

2. However, since 1994, Nigeria has reached the WC finals in 1994, 1998, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018! We have only missed one finals in 2006. These feats have been achieved with different coaches both foreign and local.

3. At the WC itself, Rohr lost in the opening round. A new coach getting there will do no worse!


Dean,

The bottomline is Rohr has done nothing extraordinary. He is a middling coach for Nigeria at best and it will not be difficult to find someone who will do no worse.

However, the hope will be to find someone to do better. That lessens the odds but to find someone to do like Rohr is much easier than you make it seem given the above odds.

If you think about it, what Rohr achieved with Nigeria can be attributed mostly to the fact that he was managing Nigeria! He did nothing close during his time in Niger, Gabon, and Burkina Faso. The only remarkable thing that Rohr ever did in his coaching career is taking Bourdeau to the UEFA Cup final in 1996! He isn't a remarkable manager.



Enugu,

What you and many others think some of us are saying is that Rohr is perfect/an excellent coach. No! What we are really saying is that Rohr has largely met his targets, and in some cases, exceeded them. He deserves to keep his job until he fails...And he hasn't failed.

Now, with respect to managerial risk....My brother, most coaches fail. There are very few Alex Fergusons in this world...so most coaching experiments end up in quick failure and replacement. Those are the odds you deal with when you get into the coaching market. If I am to make the very reasonable assumption that Nigeria would only be able to attract:

1. B/C-grade coaches like Rohr
2. An ex-Nigeria international who hasn't been given enough opportunity

...then the RISK is even greater. Lets consider our last few SE coaches:

Oliseh: Failure
Siasia: Failure
Keshi: Success, but did fail to qualify for an Afcon...which, I would say for Nigeria, is a fireable offense.


So our choices are [insert name of journeyman foreigner] or Egu/Amunike/Finidi....so on what basis do I have to believe they will exceed Rohr....For the journeyman, almost 0..Higher chance they do worse. For the Egu/Amunike/Finidi bucket, you are pretty much playing the lottery.

So, this is why I say most people underestimate the risk in replacing a successful coach. If the NFF can line up a truly top tier coaching candidate, I will hear...but no be today they born us. They will start coaching search, we will hear rumors about Harry Redknapp being approached and Arigo Sacchi being sounded out, and that someone visited the home of 82 year old Guy Roux trying to convince him to unretire.....And then, the NFF will announce that they have offered a contract to Mr. So and So Nobody European. Worse still, they could try hire big name/no accomplishment people like Kluivert or Henry or Seedorf (who Rohr trounced)...and we will just spend another several years waiting for paradise that won't come.

Let Rohr fail first before you replace him. This is craziness.


deanotito,

I have not disagreed with the claim that Rohr has NOT YET failed. That is not the point that I made or intended to make.

Instead, the point I make is that REPLACING ROHR, based on his current record, with a manager who is likely to achieve what Rohr has done so far is highly probable than unlikely. In essence, Rohr has done nothing spectacular so far to set the bar so high that the likelihood of getting a successor to achieve similar becomes difficult. Instead, what Rohr has achieved so far is quite average for most coaches who have managed Nigeria.

The managers that have achieved more and have set a high bar do not include Gernot Rohr. If you seek to know those guys then look towards Clemens Westerhoff and Stephen Keshi at the very top. The next cadre may then include Shaibu Amodu.

At Rohr's level are the likes of Festus Onigbinde, Augustine Eguavoen, etc. Although Eguavoen's tenure was far shorter than Rohr's.

Below that level will be Samson Siasia, Christian Chukwu (He did win an AFCON bronze, BTW).

In essence, the chances of getting a coach to match Rohr's current achievement is more likely than not. The tougher task is getting a coach to match the likes of Westerhoff and Keshi BUT not Rohr.


I disagree that the likes of Onigbinde, Egu, Bonfrere etc are more successful than Rohr. When you consider their targets. Rightly or wrongly, the likes of Egu/Bonfrere/Onigbinde were expected (though I cannot say for sure it was contractual) to win the Nations Cup. They didn't. Hence their replacement. Rohr, coming well after the heyday of Nigerian soccer, with a lower quality of players, has been given a lower target and he has achieved....with games to spare.

Coaches on Rohr's level are people like Troussier....who did what they were asked to do, and still got fired. Bonfrere failed...as his team was on track to miss the world cup. Egu did not win the nations cup....we can go on and on.

Rohr should be measured per his targets...and he has generally met them. If we measure him by competitive results, he beats many of the people you mentioned...and has done so for longer. And lest we assume only 6 coaching regimes have existed since 1994, please see the list below.......I remember many of these tenures. Rohr's is better than many of these. The very revolving-door nature of Nigeria's coaching history is enough to tell you very little thought goes into Nigeria's coaching choices. How you can classify that as low risk is unknown to me.

-Shuaibu Amodu
-Jo Bonfrère (1995–1996)
-Shuaibu Amodu (1996–1997)
-Philippe Troussier (1997)
-Bora Milutinović (1997–1998)
-Thijs Libregts (1998–1999)
-Jo Bonfrère (1999–2001)
-Shuaibu Amodu (2001–2002)
-Festus Onigbinde (2002)
-Christian Chukwu
-Augustine Eguavoen
-Berti Vogts
-Shuaibu Amodu
-Lars Lagerbäck
-Augustine Eguavoen
-Stephen Keshi
-Shuaibu Amodu
-Stephen Keshi
-Shuaibu Amodu
-Sunday Oliseh
-Salisu Yusuf
-Gernot Rohr

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:58 pm 
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Enugu II wrote:
deanotito,

I have not disagreed with the claim that Rohr has NOT YET failed. That is not the point that I made or intended to make.

Instead, the point I make is that REPLACING ROHR, based on his current record, with a manager who is likely to achieve what Rohr has done so far is highly probable than unlikely. In essence, Rohr has done nothing spectacular so far to set the bar so high that the likelihood of getting a successor to achieve similar becomes difficult. Instead, what Rohr has achieved so far is quite average for most coaches who have managed Nigeria.

The managers that have achieved more and have set a high bar do not include Gernot Rohr. If you seek to know those guys then look towards Clemens Westerhoff and Stephen Keshi at the very top. The next cadre may then include Shaibu Amodu.

At Rohr's level are the likes of Festus Onigbinde, Augustine Eguavoen, etc. Although Eguavoen's tenure was far shorter than Rohr's.

Below that level will be Samson Siasia, Christian Chukwu (He did win an AFCON bronze, BTW).

In essence, the chances of getting a coach to match Rohr's current achievement is more likely than not. The tougher task is getting a coach to match the likes of Westerhoff and Keshi BUT not Rohr.



Here is the Onigbinde's record at the ANC that was so great that we are talking about.

There were only 8 teams in the ANC... EIGHT TEAMS! At the group stage, Nigeria played 3 games. We won one game and drew 2 and boom...we were at the semifinals of the ANC! Then we drew the semifinal game and barely won on penalty kicks and boom again.. we were in the finals.

So basically, the great Onigbinde won 1 out of 5 games to win the silver medal that catapulted him to the to top of the list of Nigerian coaches with great success. Msheeeeeew! SMH

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_Afri ... of_Nations

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:14 pm 
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deanotito wrote:
I disagree that the likes of Onigbinde, Egu, Bonfrere etc are more successful than Rohr.
Quote:
Actually, I am not sure what you are disagreeing with. I have not claimed that those listed above were more successful that Rohr.

When you consider their targets. Rightly or wrongly, the likes of Egu/Bonfrere/Onigbinde were expected (though I cannot say for sure it was contractual) to win the Nations Cup. They didn't. Hence their replacement. Rohr, coming well after the heyday of Nigerian soccer, with a lower quality of players, has been given a lower target and he has achieved....with games to spare.

The targets set for those coaches are not dissimilar to targets set for Rohr. The target has always, including now, to win the AFCON. However, medalling in the competition has largely been acceptable then and now. The change of target in the AFCON changed from mere qualification to medalling based on what Tiko achieved in the 1970s,

Coaches on Rohr's level are people like Troussier....who did what they were asked to do, and still got fired. Bonfrere failed...as his team was on track to miss the world cup. Egu did not win the nations cup....we can go on and on.

Rohr should be measured per his targets...and he has generally met them.
No one argues against the above, and certainly not me. He is on the way to getting the team to the AFCON. That is not disputed. What is disputed is your characterization that's achievement is such that it will be hard to find someone to replace him. That claim is wrong as I have already demonstrated. A large percentage of Nigerian managers have taken the team to the AFCON finals since Father Tiko in 1976 which means the odds of a Nigerian manager getting there is high and not low., Rohr or not Rohr
If we measure him by competitive results, he beats many of the people you mentioned...and has done so for longer.

Do not be too sure unless you can support it with data. The claim should not be subjective. Provide data to support the claim.
And lest we assume only 6 coaching regimes have existed since 1994, please see the list below.......I remember many of these tenures. Rohr's is better than many of these. The very revolving-door nature of Nigeria's coaching history is enough to tell you very little thought goes into Nigeria's coaching choices. How you can classify that as low risk is unknown to me.
We know the list below but how many games did Libregts coach? How many did Lagerback? That will tell you why it was unfair to include them. For instance, I would not even include Bora as it will e unfair to compare him against Rohr even though he got the team to the World Cup last 16 which Rohr failed to do. Why? Because Bora coach only WC and it is an unfair comparison to Rohr. Thus, I have chosen to compare only coaches with similar length of tenure and not every Tom, d#$%, and Harry.

-Shuaibu Amodu
-Jo Bonfrère (1995–1996)
-Shuaibu Amodu (1996–1997)
-Philippe Troussier (1997)
-Bora Milutinović (1997–1998)
-Thijs Libregts (1998–1999)
-Jo Bonfrère (1999–2001)
-Shuaibu Amodu (2001–2002)
-Festus Onigbinde (2002)
-Christian Chukwu
-Augustine Eguavoen
-Berti Vogts
-Shuaibu Amodu
-Lars Lagerbäck
-Augustine Eguavoen
-Stephen Keshi
-Shuaibu Amodu
-Stephen Keshi
-Shuaibu Amodu
-Sunday Oliseh
-Salisu Yusuf
-Gernot Rohr

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The difficulties of statistical thinking describes a puzzling limitation of our mind: our excessive confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent inability to acknowledge the full extent of our ignorance and the uncertainty of the world we live in. We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events -- Daniel Kahneman (2011), Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 10:06 pm 
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Enugu II

it is an absolute fallacy to claim that any replacement to Rohr, Israel to achieve the same results.

We have just witnessed the LAST 3 INDIGENOUS COACHES fail spectacularly to qualify for the AFCON.

The recent record suggests the opposite of your conclusions.


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:20 am 
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1naija wrote:
Enugu II wrote:
deanotito,

I have not disagreed with the claim that Rohr has NOT YET failed. That is not the point that I made or intended to make.

Instead, the point I make is that REPLACING ROHR, based on his current record, with a manager who is likely to achieve what Rohr has done so far is highly probable than unlikely. In essence, Rohr has done nothing spectacular so far to set the bar so high that the likelihood of getting a successor to achieve similar becomes difficult. Instead, what Rohr has achieved so far is quite average for most coaches who have managed Nigeria.

The managers that have achieved more and have set a high bar do not include Gernot Rohr. If you seek to know those guys then look towards Clemens Westerhoff and Stephen Keshi at the very top. The next cadre may then include Shaibu Amodu.

At Rohr's level are the likes of Festus Onigbinde, Augustine Eguavoen, etc. Although Eguavoen's tenure was far shorter than Rohr's.

Below that level will be Samson Siasia, Christian Chukwu (He did win an AFCON bronze, BTW).

In essence, the chances of getting a coach to match Rohr's current achievement is more likely than not. The tougher task is getting a coach to match the likes of Westerhoff and Keshi BUT not Rohr.



Here is the Onigbinde's record at the ANC that was so great that we are talking about.

There were only 8 teams in the ANC... EIGHT TEAMS! At the group stage, Nigeria played 3 games. We won one game and drew 2 and boom...we were at the semifinals of the ANC! Then we drew the semifinal game and barely won on penalty kicks and boom again.. we were in the finals.

So basically, the great Onigbinde won 1 out of 5 games to win the silver medal that catapulted him to the to top of the list of Nigerian coaches with great success. Msheeeeeew! SMH

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_Afri ... of_Nations
Prof EII, like most of the Rohr critics here, is arguing out of sentiment, ie feelings. :oops:
The records do not support his (or their) argument at all.

In fact, Rohr outperforms Keshi our 'best ever' coach in ALL AREAS, whether competitive games or ALL games combined; whether you include the 2020 games, or you don't.
It makes NO difference.

The major and only difference which they hold on to and which they use to *trump* everything else are the AFCON Gold vs Bronze, and the one extra WC game which we lost to France 2-0.
It's all down to that.

I will post the competitive game records (since the word 'stats' is now unacceptable to the Anti-Rohr Squadies) once I finish compiling.
But like I said, this is a sentimental argument not based on facts, the very same argument used to dismiss Amodu twice - yet they all argue that it was totally unacceptable what they did to the man.

Very confusing, but let's see how they will spin the 'competitive' game comparison.

My guess is they will dismiss the records as "misleading" :rotf: :rotf: :rotf:

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:31 am 
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Damunk wrote:
danfo driver wrote:
Damunk wrote:
Tobi17 wrote:
deanotito wrote:
Many people on here trivialize the appointment of a new coach. They really don't understand how much of a gamble it is.

Well Algeria took that gamble, and we all know how that turned out... what's the essence of life without taking a gamble sometimes?
That's fine.
But can we handle the turbulence that comes with the gamble?
History will tell us NO.
I fear for Amuneke dem, even more than the SE.


Adarabioyo also took a gamble, while you told him to be afraid of change and remain at City! Thank God the boy did not listen and look at him now. :D
See danfo wayo.
No shame in your game. :rotf:

The guy wanted to fight for his place at the highest level in Man City.
You said he shouldn't bother and should settle for less.
He took his chances anyway.

Small time now, you will accuse somebody of "lacking ambition" and being "a coward".
Anyway, danfo drivers are not known for their honesty and rarely talk much sense, so no surprises here.
:taunt: :taunt: :taunt:


My brother, Damunky, u fortunately, you dont seem to know what ambition is. Left to you, Winston Bogarde was a very ambitious and brave man since he was a Chelsea player. One day, you will learn what ambition truly mean.

What is more brave than a man to leave the comfort of his own him and head out to define himself and rise to the top. What is more brave than a Salah, Pogba, De Bruyne and Lukaku who demanded more from themselves than the platter of comfort gold, where they sat.

My Munky quack doctor :lol: had Adarabioyo listened to you, he would be playing ball boy in the U-21 league. It is incumbent upon young children of nowadays to reject the likes of you. Not every man (or Munky) with white hair is wise. :rotf:

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Does the SE have Gray, Mahrez or Albrighton on our team or players of their caliber?


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:34 am 
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Damunk wrote:
Prof EII, like most of the Rohr critics here, is arguing out of sentiment, ie feelings. :oops:
The records do not support his (or their) argument at all.

In fact, Rohr outperforms Keshi our 'best ever' coach in ALL AREAS, whether competitive games or ALL games combined; whether you include the 2020 games, or you don't.
It makes NO difference.

The major and only difference which they hold on to and which they use to *trump* everything else are the AFCON Gold vs Bronze, and the one extra WC game which we lost to France 2-0.
It's all down to that.

I will post the competitive game records (since the word 'stats' is now unacceptable to the Anti-Rohr Squadies) once I finish compiling.
But like I said, this is a sentimental argument not based on facts, the very same argument used to dismiss Amodu twice - yet they all argue that it was totally unacceptable what they did to the man.

Very confusing, but let's see how they will spin the 'competitive' game comparison.

My guess is they will dismiss the records as "misleading" :rotf: :rotf: :rotf:


Show me the trophies!

Some people love masturbatory 1-0 wins against Kafanchan, others WHO HAVE AMBITION AND BRAVERY demand trophies.

Like Trump, **** will go and you can go with him to support his new team. Hopefully he will continue to give you joy and happiness with your new team. Its not by force to coach Nigeria. We no do again!

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metalalloy wrote:
Does the SE have Gray, Mahrez or Albrighton on our team or players of their caliber?


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:45 am 
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deanotito wrote:
If we measure him by competitive results, he beats many of the people you mentioned...and has done so for longer.... Rohr's is better than many of these. The very revolving-door nature of Nigeria's coaching history is enough to tell you very little thought goes into Nigeria's coaching choices.


EnuguII wrote:
Do not be too sure unless you can support it with data. The claim should not be subjective. Provide data to support the claim.


Prof, the records ABSOLUTELY DEMONSTRATE what deantito is stating.
It is indisputable.
Only the die-hard will argue with the records.

I can ignore - even laugh - at the emotional tantrumic rants of his less objective critics; the ones that love to pick and choose which records to see and which to be blind to, but I'd expect you to recognise that your argument is not actually based on empirical evidence.

DATA SOURCE:
https://www.transfermarkt.com/stephen-k ... 550/plus/1?
saison_id=&verein_id=3444&liga=&wettbewerb_id=&trainer_id=

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/gernot- ... 824/plus/1?
saison_id=&verein_id=3444&liga=&wettbewerb_id=&trainer_id=

From the above, I have compared results for competitive games only as you requested, but have to find a way of posting them as an image here on CE.

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:57 am 
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danfo driver wrote:
Damunk wrote:
Prof EII, like most of the Rohr critics here, is arguing out of sentiment, ie feelings. :oops:
The records do not support his (or their) argument at all.

In fact, Rohr outperforms Keshi our 'best ever' coach in ALL AREAS, whether competitive games or ALL games combined; whether you include the 2020 games, or you don't.
It makes NO difference.

The major and only difference which they hold on to and which they use to *trump* everything else are the AFCON Gold vs Bronze, and the one extra WC game which we lost to France 2-0.
It's all down to that.

I will post the competitive game records (since the word 'stats' is now unacceptable to the Anti-Rohr Squadies) once I finish compiling.
But like I said, this is a sentimental argument not based on facts, the very same argument used to dismiss Amodu twice - yet they all argue that it was totally unacceptable what they did to the man.

Very confusing, but let's see how they will spin the 'competitive' game comparison.

My guess is they will dismiss the records as "misleading" :rotf: :rotf: :rotf:


Show me the trophies!

Some people love masturbatory 1-0 wins against Kafanchan, others WHO HAVE AMBITION AND BRAVERY demand trophies.

Like Trump, **** will go and you can go with him to support his new team. Hopefully he will continue to give you joy and happiness with your new team. Its not by force to coach Nigeria. We no do again!

Sharrap diya!!

You are too dishonest to be taken seriously.
Clean up your act and somebody will.
El'enu vendor. :rotf: :rotf: :rotf:

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 2:15 am 
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Damunk,

Bros, coaches are judged by trophies/championships that they win and not by friendly games ore competitive games. I guess 20 years from now we will leave Liverpool winning the EPL and start to talk about coaches who won league games over a period without a title to it? Abi? LOL. Soon we will also judge coaches by how many friendlies they win? What Nigerians want is winning titles and not beating Rwanda in the opening game of an AFCONQ.

If you want to compare competitive games, I bet Bonfrere will perhaps be champion but that is irrelevant.
I find that irrelevant TBH.

If call pointing out trophies as an argument based on feelings, bros, then what is "feelings" defined as? Please let us know what it is? It is ridiculous for you to claim that data based on actual trophies is tantamount to feelings or sentiments. Obviously, you are not arguing based on feelings and sentiments? Really? One has to wonder about that when you choose to somewhat assume that Coaches are no longer appointed to win trophies but to simply win competitive games, trophy or no trophy. I wonder which ones Nigerians celebrate and which ones are acknowledged by the state that celebrates them by giving a Cup winning team homes -- obviously the get those games by winning games without a trophy? Wonders shall never cease. Quite ridiculous, if you ask me.

Damunk wrote:
deanotito wrote:
If we measure him by competitive results, he beats many of the people you mentioned...and has done so for longer.... Rohr's is better than many of these. The very revolving-door nature of Nigeria's coaching history is enough to tell you very little thought goes into Nigeria's coaching choices.


EnuguII wrote:
Do not be too sure unless you can support it with data. The claim should not be subjective. Provide data to support the claim.


Prof, the records ABSOLUTELY DEMONSTRATE what deantito is stating.
It is indisputable.
Only the die-hard will argue with the records.

I can ignore - even laugh - at the emotional tantrumic rants of his less objective critics; the ones that love to pick and choose which records to see and which to be blind to, but I'd expect you to recognise that your argument is not actually based on empirical evidence.

DATA SOURCE:
https://www.transfermarkt.com/stephen-k ... 550/plus/1?
saison_id=&verein_id=3444&liga=&wettbewerb_id=&trainer_id=

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/gernot- ... 824/plus/1?
saison_id=&verein_id=3444&liga=&wettbewerb_id=&trainer_id=

From the above, I have compared results for competitive games only as you requested, but have to find a way of posting them as an image here on CE.

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 2:22 am 
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vancity eagle wrote:
Enugu II

it is an absolute fallacy to claim that any replacement to Rohr, Israel to achieve the same results.

We have just witnessed the LAST 3 INDIGENOUS COACHES fail spectacularly to qualify for the AFCON.

The recent record suggests the opposite of your conclusions.


Unfortunately, such a claim was not made. You may want to read again.

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 3:11 am 
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I never really knew that coaches are now receiving trophies for winning percentages. Soon there will be trophies for victories of Brazil or Germany. Thankfully, while Nigerian fans acknowledge winning percentages, i sure know that they will prioritize trophies ahead of mere winning percentage.

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 7:33 am 
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Enugu II wrote:
I never really knew that coaches are now receiving trophies for winning percentages. Soon there will be trophies for victories of Brazil or Germany. Thankfully, while Nigerian fans acknowledge winning percentages, i sure know that they will prioritize trophies ahead of mere winning percentage.

Damunk, defense of Rohr hinges on statistics. Based on the theory coaches are judged on results. Results in football is subjective and varies from country to country. Some countries plan to win, others plan to qualify.

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 7:38 am 
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Enugu II wrote:
I never really knew that coaches are now receiving trophies for winning percentages. Soon there will be trophies for victories of Brazil or Germany. Thankfully, while Nigerian fans acknowledge winning percentages, i sure know that they will prioritize trophies ahead of mere winning percentage.
But prof, you are the oone that asked for the records from competitive games and asked deantito to publish them for all to see.
E be like tori don suddenly change. :rotf:
It is not news that Keshi won Gold vs Rohr's bronze, so which records were you asking to see again if not their PWDL ratios?
Na you ask kweshon, na you come dey tell us say kweshon nor dey relevant again.
Which wan nah?
You've not even asked to see the evidence you yourself asked for. I could be lying, like our danfo driver here. :rotf: :rotf: :rotf:

In all this back n forth, people are picking and choosing.
The management of two individuals is being compared.
At one end of the scale, peak achievement (AFCON bronze) is being touted as not good enough and is compared to the AFCON gold of the other. Fair comparison.
At the other end of the scale, the dismal failure to qualify for a second AFCON is kept all hush-hush and is for some reason not relevant, whilst for the other guy's second campaign his two draws with a 'minnow' whilst topping the qualification group is trumpeted on the rooftops as further evidence of failure.

And people are claiming to be objective here? :rotf: :rotf: :rotf:

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 9:38 am 
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fabio wrote:
Enugu II wrote:
I never really knew that coaches are now receiving trophies for winning percentages. Soon there will be trophies for victories of Brazil or Germany. Thankfully, while Nigerian fans acknowledge winning percentages, i sure know that they will prioritize trophies ahead of mere winning percentage.

Damunk, defense of Rohr hinges on statistics. Based on the theory coaches are judged on results. Results in football is subjective and varies from country to country. Some countries plan to win, others plan to qualify.
Wise countries/clubs take a wholistic approach, otherwise top coaches like Klopp and Low would never achieve what they have ended up achieving for club and country.
They don't have the '20/20 Vision' that Nigeria has obviously perfected and insists on sticking with, come what may.
It has served us very well over the last 25 years, innit? :rotf: :rotf: :rotf:

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 10:05 am 
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Damunk wrote:
Wise countries/clubs take a wholistic approach, otherwise top coaches like Klopp and Low would never achieve what they have ended up achieving for club and country.
They don't have the '20/20 Vision' that Nigeria has obviously perfected and insists on sticking with, come what may.
It has served us very well over the last 25 years, innit? :rotf: :rotf: :rotf:

We are now comparing Klopp and Low to Rohr :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 12:34 pm 
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fabio wrote:
Damunk wrote:
Wise countries/clubs take a wholistic approach, otherwise top coaches like Klopp and Low would never achieve what they have ended up achieving for club and country.
They don't have the '20/20 Vision' that Nigeria has obviously perfected and insists on sticking with, come what may.
It has served us very well over the last 25 years, innit? :rotf: :rotf: :rotf:

We are now comparing Klopp and Low to Rohr :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

:rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf:

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:39 pm 
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Damunk wrote:
1naija wrote:
Enugu II wrote:
deanotito,

I have not disagreed with the claim that Rohr has NOT YET failed. That is not the point that I made or intended to make.

Instead, the point I make is that REPLACING ROHR, based on his current record, with a manager who is likely to achieve what Rohr has done so far is highly probable than unlikely. In essence, Rohr has done nothing spectacular so far to set the bar so high that the likelihood of getting a successor to achieve similar becomes difficult. Instead, what Rohr has achieved so far is quite average for most coaches who have managed Nigeria.

The managers that have achieved more and have set a high bar do not include Gernot Rohr. If you seek to know those guys then look towards Clemens Westerhoff and Stephen Keshi at the very top. The next cadre may then include Shaibu Amodu.

At Rohr's level are the likes of Festus Onigbinde, Augustine Eguavoen, etc. Although Eguavoen's tenure was far shorter than Rohr's.

Below that level will be Samson Siasia, Christian Chukwu (He did win an AFCON bronze, BTW).

In essence, the chances of getting a coach to match Rohr's current achievement is more likely than not. The tougher task is getting a coach to match the likes of Westerhoff and Keshi BUT not Rohr.



Here is the Onigbinde's record at the ANC that was so great that we are talking about.

There were only 8 teams in the ANC... EIGHT TEAMS! At the group stage, Nigeria played 3 games. We won one game and drew 2 and boom...we were at the semifinals of the ANC! Then we drew the semifinal game and barely won on penalty kicks and boom again.. we were in the finals.

So basically, the great Onigbinde won 1 out of 5 games to win the silver medal that catapulted him to the to top of the list of Nigerian coaches with great success. Msheeeeeew! SMH

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_Afri ... of_Nations
Prof EII, like most of the Rohr critics here, is arguing out of sentiment, ie feelings. :oops:
The records do not support his (or their) argument at all.

In fact, Rohr outperforms Keshi our 'best ever' coach in ALL AREAS, whether competitive games or ALL games combined; whether you include the 2020 games, or you don't.
It makes NO difference.

The major and only difference which they hold on to and which they use to *trump* everything else are the AFCON Gold vs Bronze, and the one extra WC game which we lost to France 2-0.
It's all down to that.

I will post the competitive game records (since the word 'stats' is now unacceptable to the Anti-Rohr Squadies) once I finish compiling.
But like I said, this is a sentimental argument not based on facts, the very same argument used to dismiss Amodu twice - yet they all argue that it was totally unacceptable what they did to the man.

Very confusing, but let's see how they will spin the 'competitive' game comparison.

My guess is they will dismiss the records as "misleading" :rotf: :rotf: :rotf:



Interesting that according to you a coach with ANC Bronze and 1st Round WC exit out performs a coach with ANC Gold and Qualification for 2nd round of the WC.

Maybe you should check how much Keshi was paid and how much he 'earned' for Nigeria and do a RETURN ON INVESTMENT and compare that with Rohr.

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 2:40 pm 
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Damunk wrote:
danfo driver wrote:
Damunk wrote:
Prof EII, like most of the Rohr critics here, is arguing out of sentiment, ie feelings. :oops:
The records do not support his (or their) argument at all.

In fact, Rohr outperforms Keshi our 'best ever' coach in ALL AREAS, whether competitive games or ALL games combined; whether you include the 2020 games, or you don't.
It makes NO difference.

The major and only difference which they hold on to and which they use to *trump* everything else are the AFCON Gold vs Bronze, and the one extra WC game which we lost to France 2-0.
It's all down to that.

I will post the competitive game records (since the word 'stats' is now unacceptable to the Anti-Rohr Squadies) once I finish compiling.
But like I said, this is a sentimental argument not based on facts, the very same argument used to dismiss Amodu twice - yet they all argue that it was totally unacceptable what they did to the man.

Very confusing, but let's see how they will spin the 'competitive' game comparison.

My guess is they will dismiss the records as "misleading" :rotf: :rotf: :rotf:


Show me the trophies!

Some people love masturbatory 1-0 wins against Kafanchan, others WHO HAVE AMBITION AND BRAVERY demand trophies.

Like Trump, **** will go and you can go with him to support his new team. Hopefully he will continue to give you joy and happiness with your new team. Its not by force to coach Nigeria. We no do again!

Sharrap diya!!

You are too dishonest to be taken seriously.
Clean up your act and somebody will.
El'enu vendor. :rotf: :rotf: :rotf:


:rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: which act? did i try to ruin the career of a young boy? Thank God Adarabioyo did not listen :lol:

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metalalloy wrote:
Does the SE have Gray, Mahrez or Albrighton on our team or players of their caliber?


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 2:42 pm 
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Bigpokey24 wrote:
fabio wrote:
Damunk wrote:
Wise countries/clubs take a wholistic approach, otherwise top coaches like Klopp and Low would never achieve what they have ended up achieving for club and country.
They don't have the '20/20 Vision' that Nigeria has obviously perfected and insists on sticking with, come what may.
It has served us very well over the last 25 years, innit? :rotf: :rotf: :rotf:

We are now comparing Klopp and Low to Rohr :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

:rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf:


He has truly lost it :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: unfortunate to see a so called doctor give his reputation and life to a lesser intelligent and unaccomplished man just because the man is white and he is black. what a sad waste.

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metalalloy wrote:
Does the SE have Gray, Mahrez or Albrighton on our team or players of their caliber?


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


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