THINKING OF COACHING......

[Enugu II]

I write here to remind everyone that there are very few Managers that are real game changers i.e. those who are able to really transform teams. For a great number of managers, they are just average doing very little to impact a team and their fortunes will fluctuate based on talents at their disposal.

These latter type of managers are far more plentiful. I will argue that most Managers that have led Nigeria fall under the latter categories. They essentially depend on the great amount of talented footballers who are available to Nigeria. Thus, they use Nigeria to bolster their CVs. Beyond Nigeria, they are average or below average. Gernot Rohr is likely a good example of this type of manager. There are many Nigerians who can achieve what Rohr accomplished. In fact if you look at the history of managing Nigeria's football, there is a litany of Nigerians who have not only matched it but surpassed it. Now, this should not be read as a disparagement of Gernot Rohr. Far from it. It simply reflects the basic fact that the real difference makers in managing football are very few (see the diagram below). Gernot Rohr and his type can be found in the 34.1% bunched in the middle.



So who are those exceptional Managers. Perhaps, Pep Guardiola is one of them. He is truly exceptional and you can see his immediate impact on teams that he manages. I would predict that even if he manages a far less talented team, that team will play above its expected output. It may not win championships, but he will have a very great effect on the team's production. Gernot Rohr will not achieve similar effect. Many of those who have managed Nigeria will not, either.

What does the above mean? For me, any good Nigerian can achieve similar to Gernot Rohr. This includes the likes of Amuneke, Finidi, etc. I have very little doubt about that. Nigeria's talent that such coaches depend on, have not and will not suddenly disappear. As long as such talents exist, a Nigerian manager will more than not achieve success at similar levels. Most current EPL managers, if hired by Nigeria, will do no better. Bet on it. Most of them are average or below average.

Now on Guardiola and his type. Such managers fall on the left end of the diagram above. Those are very rare but they exist. Nigeria does not hire from that category. If Nigeria is to hire such a manager, Nigeria will not only dominate African football but will challenge for the World Cup itself. Bet on it. However, do we have the funds t hire such a manager? I think not. If we do, I will say let's go for it.

However, if we are not going to hire such a manager, I will say hire locally because hiring the average manager from Europe will not push the needle the way that I visualize it. It will only exemplify colonial mentality. Thus, I will settle for a local manager than to hire one that will not push the needle.

Just my tuppence.

[ohenhen1]

I don't care personally if the coach is foreign or local. My problem is the WOWO attitude. They discriminate against Nigerians. They make up excuses for foreigners and then are quick to attack local coaches. One of them already accused a local coach of collecting bribe to make the recent list. Even though we don't even have a coach.

What I want from a coach.
1. He can't be a journey man coach. Must be a long term solution.
2. Can't have a history of failure.
3. Must play to the strengths of his players. I didn't like how Peseiro was trying to force players into positions that they were not good at. The next coach must play to the strengths of his players.
4. This is Nigeria, we have high expectations. Nigeria must play good football. Must win trophies, not finish 2nd or 3rd. The next coach must understand that.

[deanotito]

I write here to remind everyone that there are very few Managers that are real game changers i.e. those who are able to really transform teams. For a great number of managers, they are just average doing very little to impact a team and their fortunes will fluctuate based on talents at their disposal.

These latter type of managers are far more plentiful. I will argue that most Managers that have led Nigeria fall under the latter categories. They essentially depend on the great amount of talented footballers who are available to Nigeria. Thus, they use Nigeria to bolster their CVs. Beyond Nigeria, they are average or below average. Gernot Rohr is likely a good example of this type of manager. There are many Nigerians who can achieve what Rohr accomplished. In fact if you look at the history of managing Nigeria's football, there is a litany of Nigerians who have not only matched it but surpassed it. Now, this should not be read as a disparagement of Gernot Rohr. Far from it. It simply reflects the basic fact that the real difference makers in managing football are very few (see the diagram below). Gernot Rohr and his type can be found in the 34.1% bunched in the middle.



So who are those exceptional Managers. Perhaps, Pep Guardiola is one of them. He is truly exceptional and you can see his immediate impact on teams that he manages. I would predict that even if he manages a far less talented team, that team will play above its expected output. It may not win championships, but he will have a very great effect on the team's production. Gernot Rohr will not achieve similar effect. Many of those who have managed Nigeria will not, either.

What does the above mean? For me, any good Nigerian can achieve similar to Gernot Rohr. This includes the likes of Amuneke, Finidi, etc. I have very little doubt about that. Nigeria's talent that such coaches depend on, have not and will not suddenly disappear. As long as such talents exist, a Nigerian manager will more than not achieve success at similar levels. Most current EPL managers, if hired by Nigeria, will do no better. Bet on it. Most of them are average or below average.

Now on Guardiola and his type. Such managers fall on the left end of the diagram above. Those are very rare but they exist. Nigeria does not hire from that category. If Nigeria is to hire such a manager, Nigeria will not only dominate African football but will challenge for the World Cup itself. Bet on it. However, do we have the funds t hire such a manager? I think not. If we do, I will say let's go for it.

However, if we are not going to hire such a manager, I will say hire locally because hiring the average manager from Europe will not push the needle the way that I visualize it. It will only exemplify colonial mentality. Thus, I will settle for a local manager than to hire one that will not push the needle.

Just my tuppence.

I kind of disagree with this. In a sense, you are correct. It is likely that Rohr knows no more football than Amuneke/Finidi/Amodu/Eguavoen. BUT I have found that what makes some managers rise above the rest is the way they conduct their jobs, their decisiveness and their wisdom.

If you reduce effectiveness as a manager to just knowledge of tactics, then your thesis (abi na tupence you call am) is correct.

But being a successful manager is beyond that. One thing Rohr had over the next best Nigerian alternatives was wisdom and maturity. He approached his job in an understated but very methodical manner. I didn’t like everything about him. His “we’re here to learn” quips grated my very soul, for instance. But I’ve been watching the Super Eagles for a long time. It is a challenging environment to work. And some people simply CANNOT manage it. Coaching is beyond mere knowledge.

Rohr figured out what his targets were and proceeded to take the lowest risk approach to achieve them. He wasn’t interested in dazzling you or trying to prove that he could play 4 strikers at the same time (Siasia?). This is partly why our qualification experiences under Rohr were professionally executed. It is still the only period of Nigerian soccer where I wasn’t sweating to see if we would qualify for that World Cup or whatever

[Enugu II]

I write here to remind everyone that there are very few Managers that are real game changers i.e. those who are able to really transform teams. For a great number of managers, they are just average doing very little to impact a team and their fortunes will fluctuate based on talents at their disposal.

These latter type of managers are far more plentiful. I will argue that most Managers that have led Nigeria fall under the latter categories. They essentially depend on the great amount of talented footballers who are available to Nigeria. Thus, they use Nigeria to bolster their CVs. Beyond Nigeria, they are average or below average. Gernot Rohr is likely a good example of this type of manager. There are many Nigerians who can achieve what Rohr accomplished. In fact if you look at the history of managing Nigeria's football, there is a litany of Nigerians who have not only matched it but surpassed it. Now, this should not be read as a disparagement of Gernot Rohr. Far from it. It simply reflects the basic fact that the real difference makers in managing football are very few (see the diagram below). Gernot Rohr and his type can be found in the 34.1% bunched in the middle.



So who are those exceptional Managers. Perhaps, Pep Guardiola is one of them. He is truly exceptional and you can see his immediate impact on teams that he manages. I would predict that even if he manages a far less talented team, that team will play above its expected output. It may not win championships, but he will have a very great effect on the team's production. Gernot Rohr will not achieve similar effect. Many of those who have managed Nigeria will not, either.

What does the above mean? For me, any good Nigerian can achieve similar to Gernot Rohr. This includes the likes of Amuneke, Finidi, etc. I have very little doubt about that. Nigeria's talent that such coaches depend on, have not and will not suddenly disappear. As long as such talents exist, a Nigerian manager will more than not achieve success at similar levels. Most current EPL managers, if hired by Nigeria, will do no better. Bet on it. Most of them are average or below average.

Now on Guardiola and his type. Such managers fall on the left end of the diagram above. Those are very rare but they exist. Nigeria does not hire from that category. If Nigeria is to hire such a manager, Nigeria will not only dominate African football but will challenge for the World Cup itself. Bet on it. However, do we have the funds t hire such a manager? I think not. If we do, I will say let's go for it.

However, if we are not going to hire such a manager, I will say hire locally because hiring the average manager from Europe will not push the needle the way that I visualize it. It will only exemplify colonial mentality. Thus, I will settle for a local manager than to hire one that will not push the needle.

Just my tuppence.

I kind of disagree with this. In a sense, you are correct. It is likely that Rohr knows no more football than Amuneke/Finidi/Amodu/Eguavoen. BUT I have found that what makes some managers rise above the rest is the way they conduct their jobs, their decisiveness and their wisdom.

If you reduce effectiveness as a manager to just knowledge of tactics, then your thesis (abi na tupence you call am) is correct.

But being a successful manager is beyond that. One thing Rohr had over the next best Nigerian alternatives was wisdom and maturity. He approached his job in an understated but very methodical manner. I didn’t like everything about him. His “we’re here to learn” quips grated my very soul, for instance. But I’ve been watching the Super Eagles for a long time. It is a challenging environment to work. And some people simply CANNOT manage it. Coaching is beyond mere knowledge.

Rohr figured out what his targets were and proceeded to take the lowest risk approach to achieve them. He wasn’t interested in dazzling you or trying to prove that he could play 4 strikers at the same time (Siasia?). This is partly why our qualification experiences under Rohr were professionally executed. It is still the only period of Nigerian soccer where I wasn’t sweating to see if we would qualify for that World Cup or whatever

Deanotito

Fair enough. However, note that I fo not believe tactical knowledge is what makes a good manager. Guardiola is by no means limited to tactical knowledge. I am writing about all variables that constitute an effective manager and on my opinion tactical knowledge is not even 50% of that.

The real reason why tactical knowledge is highlighted often is because of how easily accessible it is.

[Lolly]

So what qualities do these local coaches/managers have? How have they used those qualities in their previous or current jobs? Lets list a few of them and discuss.

[TonyTheTigerKiller]

I write here to remind everyone that there are very few Managers that are real game changers i.e. those who are able to really transform teams. For a great number of managers, they are just average doing very little to impact a team and their fortunes will fluctuate based on talents at their disposal.

These latter type of managers are far more plentiful. I will argue that most Managers that have led Nigeria fall under the latter categories. They essentially depend on the great amount of talented footballers who are available to Nigeria. Thus, they use Nigeria to bolster their CVs. Beyond Nigeria, they are average or below average. Gernot Rohr is likely a good example of this type of manager. There are many Nigerians who can achieve what Rohr accomplished. In fact if you look at the history of managing Nigeria's football, there is a litany of Nigerians who have not only matched it but surpassed it. Now, this should not be read as a disparagement of Gernot Rohr. Far from it. It simply reflects the basic fact that the real difference makers in managing football are very few (see the diagram below). Gernot Rohr and his type can be found in the 34.1% bunched in the middle.



So who are those exceptional Managers. Perhaps, Pep Guardiola is one of them. He is truly exceptional and you can see his immediate impact on teams that he manages. I would predict that even if he manages a far less talented team, that team will play above its expected output. It may not win championships, but he will have a very great effect on the team's production. Gernot Rohr will not achieve similar effect. Many of those who have managed Nigeria will not, either.

What does the above mean? For me, any good Nigerian can achieve similar to Gernot Rohr. This includes the likes of Amuneke, Finidi, etc. I have very little doubt about that. Nigeria's talent that such coaches depend on, have not and will not suddenly disappear. As long as such talents exist, a Nigerian manager will more than not achieve success at similar levels. Most current EPL managers, if hired by Nigeria, will do no better. Bet on it. Most of them are average or below average.

Now on Guardiola and his type. Such managers fall on the left end of the diagram above. Those are very rare but they exist. Nigeria does not hire from that category. If Nigeria is to hire such a manager, Nigeria will not only dominate African football but will challenge for the World Cup itself. Bet on it. However, do we have the funds t hire such a manager? I think not. If we do, I will say let's go for it.

However, if we are not going to hire such a manager, I will say hire locally because hiring the average manager from Europe will not push the needle the way that I visualize it. It will only exemplify colonial mentality. Thus, I will settle for a local manager than to hire one that will not push the needle.

Just my tuppence.

EII,

I don’t believe there is one single manager in the whole wide world who is as good as he’s given credit for. Any manager is only as good as the resources made available to him. If a manager has good players and adequate support from his employer, he is likely to succeed. If you don’t believe me, let Pep Guardiola go coach Sheffield United and let’s see how many games he’ll win in a season.

What successful managers do is maximize the talent available to them. Without the appropriate talent, he/she isn’t going to accomplish a whole lot. You can confidently take that to the bank


Cheers.

[joao]

EII,

I don’t believe there is one single manager in the whole wide world who is as good as he’s given credit for. Any manager is only as good as the resources made available to him. If a manager has good players and adequate support from his employer, he is likely to succeed. If you don’t believe me, let Pep Guardiola go coach Sheffield United and let’s see how many games he’ll win in a season.

What successful managers do is maximize the talent available to them. Without the appropriate talent, he/she isn’t going to accomplish a whole lot. You can confidently take that to the bank


Cheers.

Case closed!!!

[Enugu II]

EII,

I don’t believe there is one single manager in the whole wide world who is as good as he’s given credit for. Any manager is only as good as the resources made available to him. If a manager has good players and adequate support from his employer, he is likely to succeed. If you don’t believe me, let Pep Guardiola go coach Sheffield United and let’s see how many games he’ll win in a season.

What successful managers do is maximize the talent available to them. Without the appropriate talent, he/she isn’t going to accomplish a whole lot. You can confidently take that to the bank


Cheers.

Case closed!!!

Joao,

I somewhat believe that he may be different. I hope so but I will not claim definitively challenge the point made by you and TTTK because we really have not seen him coach an averagely talented team yet.

[Kabalega]

Pep Guardiola coached Barça B when it was bad and fixed it so good that it beat the senior team with the likes of Messi and Ronaldinho (albeit a distracted player at that point).
How Guardiola went about fixing that Barça B team should be proof enough that he can thrive with less talented teams.

A good manager will likely have a decent backroom team, be a good man-manager, and I think, above all else, have a good extensive network of mentors.
Most of the top managers have this extensive network which they lean on for answers when needed.

Even Nigeria’s successful “local” managers like S. Keshi (RIP) probably relied on a good extensive network.
Of course, it helps to know how and when to tap into the network.

In short, it’s whom you know.

[ahidjo2]

I write here to remind everyone that there are very few Managers that are real game changers i.e. those who are able to really transform teams. For a great number of managers, they are just average doing very little to impact a team and their fortunes will fluctuate based on talents at their disposal.

These latter type of managers are far more plentiful. I will argue that most Managers that have led Nigeria fall under the latter categories. They essentially depend on the great amount of talented footballers who are available to Nigeria. Thus, they use Nigeria to bolster their CVs. Beyond Nigeria, they are average or below average. Gernot Rohr is likely a good example of this type of manager. There are many Nigerians who can achieve what Rohr accomplished. In fact if you look at the history of managing Nigeria's football, there is a litany of Nigerians who have not only matched it but surpassed it. Now, this should not be read as a disparagement of Gernot Rohr. Far from it. It simply reflects the basic fact that the real difference makers in managing football are very few (see the diagram below). Gernot Rohr and his type can be found in the 34.1% bunched in the middle.



So who are those exceptional Managers. Perhaps, Pep Guardiola is one of them. He is truly exceptional and you can see his immediate impact on teams that he manages. I would predict that even if he manages a far less talented team, that team will play above its expected output. It may not win championships, but he will have a very great effect on the team's production. Gernot Rohr will not achieve similar effect. Many of those who have managed Nigeria will not, either.

What does the above mean? For me, any good Nigerian can achieve similar to Gernot Rohr. This includes the likes of Amuneke, Finidi, etc. I have very little doubt about that. Nigeria's talent that such coaches depend on, have not and will not suddenly disappear. As long as such talents exist, a Nigerian manager will more than not achieve success at similar levels. Most current EPL managers, if hired by Nigeria, will do no better. Bet on it. Most of them are average or below average.

Now on Guardiola and his type. Such managers fall on the left end of the diagram above. Those are very rare but they exist. Nigeria does not hire from that category. If Nigeria is to hire such a manager, Nigeria will not only dominate African football but will challenge for the World Cup itself. Bet on it. However, do we have the funds t hire such a manager? I think not. If we do, I will say let's go for it.

However, if we are not going to hire such a manager, I will say hire locally because hiring the average manager from Europe will not push the needle the way that I visualize it. It will only exemplify colonial mentality. Thus, I will settle for a local manager than to hire one that will not push the needle.

Just my tuppence.

Enugu II,
Please remove the statistical aspect of your write up because it seems to have no statistical basis or foundation. How were the numbers shown in the normal curve generated? Where did the mean of 100 come from? standard deviation of 15?. Where is the data used to generate these values? How did you come to the conclusion that "Gernot Rohr and his type can be found in the 34.1% bunched in the middle". What is Rohr's exact value that puts him within 1sd of that mean or below the 84th percentile score as claimed above? The reason is that if we start on a faulty premise or assumptions, our conclusions will definitely be wrong and unreliable.

[Enugu II]

I write here to remind everyone that there are very few Managers that are real game changers i.e. those who are able to really transform teams. For a great number of managers, they are just average doing very little to impact a team and their fortunes will fluctuate based on talents at their disposal.

These latter type of managers are far more plentiful. I will argue that most Managers that have led Nigeria fall under the latter categories. They essentially depend on the great amount of talented footballers who are available to Nigeria. Thus, they use Nigeria to bolster their CVs. Beyond Nigeria, they are average or below average. Gernot Rohr is likely a good example of this type of manager. There are many Nigerians who can achieve what Rohr accomplished. In fact if you look at the history of managing Nigeria's football, there is a litany of Nigerians who have not only matched it but surpassed it. Now, this should not be read as a disparagement of Gernot Rohr. Far from it. It simply reflects the basic fact that the real difference makers in managing football are very few (see the diagram below). Gernot Rohr and his type can be found in the 34.1% bunched in the middle.



So who are those exceptional Managers. Perhaps, Pep Guardiola is one of them. He is truly exceptional and you can see his immediate impact on teams that he manages. I would predict that even if he manages a far less talented team, that team will play above its expected output. It may not win championships, but he will have a very great effect on the team's production. Gernot Rohr will not achieve similar effect. Many of those who have managed Nigeria will not, either.

What does the above mean? For me, any good Nigerian can achieve similar to Gernot Rohr. This includes the likes of Amuneke, Finidi, etc. I have very little doubt about that. Nigeria's talent that such coaches depend on, have not and will not suddenly disappear. As long as such talents exist, a Nigerian manager will more than not achieve success at similar levels. Most current EPL managers, if hired by Nigeria, will do no better. Bet on it. Most of them are average or below average.

Now on Guardiola and his type. Such managers fall on the left end of the diagram above. Those are very rare but they exist. Nigeria does not hire from that category. If Nigeria is to hire such a manager, Nigeria will not only dominate African football but will challenge for the World Cup itself. Bet on it. However, do we have the funds t hire such a manager? I think not. If we do, I will say let's go for it.

However, if we are not going to hire such a manager, I will say hire locally because hiring the average manager from Europe will not push the needle the way that I visualize it. It will only exemplify colonial mentality. Thus, I will settle for a local manager than to hire one that will not push the needle.

Just my tuppence.

Enugu II,
Please remove the statistical aspect of your write up because it seems to have no statistical basis or foundation. How were the numbers shown in the normal curve generated? Where did the mean of 100 come from? standard deviation of 15?. Where is the data used to generate these values? How did you come to the conclusion that "Gernot Rohr and his type can be found in the 34.1% bunched in the middle". What is Rohr's exact value that puts him within 1sd of that mean or below the 84th percentile score as claimed above? The reason is that if we start on a faulty premise or assumptions, our conclusions will definitely be wrong and unreliable.

Ahidjo,

Are you for real?

That data is not specific to what we are discussing. Instead, it is essential to all statistical discussion about distributions on variety of human performance, ranging from intelligence to the discussion at hand. Any human trait is distributed roughly in those indicated numbers. Bros, any student in college or thereafter should be familiar with that chart and I am pretty sure that all of us here are familiar or should be familiar with it. Any statistical class often begins with it. It is critical to understanding the distribution related to excellent coaches and it statistically demonstrates how many of them should exist ion the population of all coaches. In essence, critical to this very discussion.

Without it, the argument falls apart!

[ahidjo2]

I write here to remind everyone that there are very few Managers that are real game changers i.e. those who are able to really transform teams. For a great number of managers, they are just average doing very little to impact a team and their fortunes will fluctuate based on talents at their disposal.

These latter type of managers are far more plentiful. I will argue that most Managers that have led Nigeria fall under the latter categories. They essentially depend on the great amount of talented footballers who are available to Nigeria. Thus, they use Nigeria to bolster their CVs. Beyond Nigeria, they are average or below average. Gernot Rohr is likely a good example of this type of manager. There are many Nigerians who can achieve what Rohr accomplished. In fact if you look at the history of managing Nigeria's football, there is a litany of Nigerians who have not only matched it but surpassed it. Now, this should not be read as a disparagement of Gernot Rohr. Far from it. It simply reflects the basic fact that the real difference makers in managing football are very few (see the diagram below). Gernot Rohr and his type can be found in the 34.1% bunched in the middle.



So who are those exceptional Managers. Perhaps, Pep Guardiola is one of them. He is truly exceptional and you can see his immediate impact on teams that he manages. I would predict that even if he manages a far less talented team, that team will play above its expected output. It may not win championships, but he will have a very great effect on the team's production. Gernot Rohr will not achieve similar effect. Many of those who have managed Nigeria will not, either.

What does the above mean? For me, any good Nigerian can achieve similar to Gernot Rohr. This includes the likes of Amuneke, Finidi, etc. I have very little doubt about that. Nigeria's talent that such coaches depend on, have not and will not suddenly disappear. As long as such talents exist, a Nigerian manager will more than not achieve success at similar levels. Most current EPL managers, if hired by Nigeria, will do no better. Bet on it. Most of them are average or below average.

Now on Guardiola and his type. Such managers fall on the left end of the diagram above. Those are very rare but they exist. Nigeria does not hire from that category. If Nigeria is to hire such a manager, Nigeria will not only dominate African football but will challenge for the World Cup itself. Bet on it. However, do we have the funds t hire such a manager? I think not. If we do, I will say let's go for it.

However, if we are not going to hire such a manager, I will say hire locally because hiring the average manager from Europe will not push the needle the way that I visualize it. It will only exemplify colonial mentality. Thus, I will settle for a local manager than to hire one that will not push the needle.

Just my tuppence.

Enugu II,
Please remove the statistical aspect of your write up because it seems to have no statistical basis or foundation. How were the numbers shown in the normal curve generated? Where did the mean of 100 come from? standard deviation of 15?. Where is the data used to generate these values? How did you come to the conclusion that "Gernot Rohr and his type can be found in the 34.1% bunched in the middle". What is Rohr's exact value that puts him within 1sd of that mean or below the 84th percentile score as claimed above? The reason is that if we start on a faulty premise or assumptions, our conclusions will definitely be wrong and unreliable.

Ahidjo,

Are you for real?

That data is not specific to what we are discussing. Instead, it is essential to all statistical discussion about distributions on variety of human performance, ranging from intelligence to the discussion at hand. Any human trait is distributed roughly in those indicated numbers. Bros, any student in college or thereafter should be familiar with that chart and I am pretty sure that all of us here are familiar or should be familiar with it. Any statistical class often begins with it. It is critical to understanding the distribution related to excellent coaches and it statistically demonstrates how many of them should exist ion the population of all coaches. In essence, critical to this very discussion.

Without it, the argument falls apart!

No sir, any human trait is not "distributed roughly in those indicated numbers". These are normal distributions and have their strict characteristics, usage and applications. My questions about Rohr was still not answered. How did you arrive at the conclusion that Rohr and the likes belonged to the position you ascribed him/them. Where are the numbers? Without the numbers, the argument falls flat

[Enugu II]

I write here to remind everyone that there are very few Managers that are real game changers i.e. those who are able to really transform teams. For a great number of managers, they are just average doing very little to impact a team and their fortunes will fluctuate based on talents at their disposal.

These latter type of managers are far more plentiful. I will argue that most Managers that have led Nigeria fall under the latter categories. They essentially depend on the great amount of talented footballers who are available to Nigeria. Thus, they use Nigeria to bolster their CVs. Beyond Nigeria, they are average or below average. Gernot Rohr is likely a good example of this type of manager. There are many Nigerians who can achieve what Rohr accomplished. In fact if you look at the history of managing Nigeria's football, there is a litany of Nigerians who have not only matched it but surpassed it. Now, this should not be read as a disparagement of Gernot Rohr. Far from it. It simply reflects the basic fact that the real difference makers in managing football are very few (see the diagram below). Gernot Rohr and his type can be found in the 34.1% bunched in the middle.



So who are those exceptional Managers. Perhaps, Pep Guardiola is one of them. He is truly exceptional and you can see his immediate impact on teams that he manages. I would predict that even if he manages a far less talented team, that team will play above its expected output. It may not win championships, but he will have a very great effect on the team's production. Gernot Rohr will not achieve similar effect. Many of those who have managed Nigeria will not, either.

What does the above mean? For me, any good Nigerian can achieve similar to Gernot Rohr. This includes the likes of Amuneke, Finidi, etc. I have very little doubt about that. Nigeria's talent that such coaches depend on, have not and will not suddenly disappear. As long as such talents exist, a Nigerian manager will more than not achieve success at similar levels. Most current EPL managers, if hired by Nigeria, will do no better. Bet on it. Most of them are average or below average.

Now on Guardiola and his type. Such managers fall on the left end of the diagram above. Those are very rare but they exist. Nigeria does not hire from that category. If Nigeria is to hire such a manager, Nigeria will not only dominate African football but will challenge for the World Cup itself. Bet on it. However, do we have the funds t hire such a manager? I think not. If we do, I will say let's go for it.

However, if we are not going to hire such a manager, I will say hire locally because hiring the average manager from Europe will not push the needle the way that I visualize it. It will only exemplify colonial mentality. Thus, I will settle for a local manager than to hire one that will not push the needle.

Just my tuppence.

Enugu II,
Please remove the statistical aspect of your write up because it seems to have no statistical basis or foundation. How were the numbers shown in the normal curve generated? Where did the mean of 100 come from? standard deviation of 15?. Where is the data used to generate these values? How did you come to the conclusion that "Gernot Rohr and his type can be found in the 34.1% bunched in the middle". What is Rohr's exact value that puts him within 1sd of that mean or below the 84th percentile score as claimed above? The reason is that if we start on a faulty premise or assumptions, our conclusions will definitely be wrong and unreliable.

Ahidjo,

Are you for real?

That data is not specific to what we are discussing. Instead, it is essential to all statistical discussion about distributions on variety of human performance, ranging from intelligence to the discussion at hand. Any human trait is distributed roughly in those indicated numbers. Bros, any student in college or thereafter should be familiar with that chart and I am pretty sure that all of us here are familiar or should be familiar with it. Any statistical class often begins with it. It is critical to understanding the distribution related to excellent coaches and it statistically demonstrates how many of them should exist ion the population of all coaches. In essence, critical to this very discussion.

Without it, the argument falls apart!

No sir, any human trait is not "distributed roughly in those indicated numbers". These are normal distributions and have their strict characteristics, usage and applications. My questions about Rohr was still not answered. How did you arrive at the conclusion that Rohr and the likes belonged to the position you ascribed him/them. Where are the numbers? Without the numbers, the argument falls flat

ahidjo2,

You may want to read more about the distributions that I mention above and realize its relevance to the current discourse and, thus, why the diagram is used herein.

In any case, let me address your other question. I arrive at my view on Rohr and the different view on Guardiola based on their track record of management across multiple places.

[Kneedeep]

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=309174&p=5784326&hi ... s#p5784326

Data Analysis:

In Soccernomics we argued that managers are not that important- based on the statistical claim that most of the variation in league performance can be explained by wage spending. A statistical model that allowed for the impact of managers showed that most were statistically insignificant and those that were statistically significant only improved league performance by a small amount.

https://www.soccernomics-agency.com/?p=494

[Enugu II]

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=309174&p=5784326&hi ... s#p5784326

Data Analysis:

In Soccernomics we argued that managers are not that important- based on the statistical claim that most of the variation in league performance can be explained by wage spending. A statistical model that allowed for the impact of managers showed that most were statistically insignificant and those that were statistically significant only improved league performance by a small amount.

https://www.soccernomics-agency.com/?p=494

In other words, most of the impact explained by relative player/team talent.

Thanks for posting. This sorts of give credence that impact of managers is more perceived than real.

I suspect, however, that there are few Managers who have greater impact than a large number of guys earning big bucks for just being there.

Just to be clear, this does not mean that one does not see managers impact on how teams play but that there are only few who make significant difference in a crowd of average guys.