Updated Goldman Sachs prediction model - Brazil to win WC

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femibyte
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Updated Goldman Sachs prediction model - Brazil to win WC

Post by femibyte »

http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinkin ... MM21462290

Spot on so far....
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WORLD CUP PREDICTION MODEL UPDATE

June 26, 2014
Economists from our Global Investment Research Division (GIR) have updated their statistical model of the World Cup now that the Knockout Round is set. Brazil remains the predicted winner, expected to defeat the Netherlands, which had been predicted to fall to Brazil in the round of 16 originally.

Here is how GIR's model has the rest of the Cup playing out:



Three of the predicted semi-finalists remain the same from the model's original prediction: Brazil, Germany and Argentina. Brazil, while given a 48.5% chance of winning the Cup in the original model, has been taken down a notch slightly, with a 42.6% chance of winning it all. The Netherlands, on the other hand, has seen its probability of taking the trophy climb to 17.7% from 5.6% and is now seen as the most likely team to play Brazil for the title. Spain, of course, went from a strong 21.8% chance of playing in the final to being ousted from the Cup in the group stage. Meanwhile the United States has defied the odds and advanced to the Knockout Round, but maintains a relatively low probability of winning the championship at 0.4%.

The chart below highlights the latest probabilities for each team to reach different stages of the tournament:
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Re: Updated Goldman Sachs prediction model - Brazil to win W

Post by Heliopolis »

It'll be a damn shame if Brazil wins this WC with the rubbish team they have. I love Brazil, I love the way Brazil has played football in the past, but this atrocious 2014 WC team cannot be allowed to win. 1 clean victory out of 4 so far in a WC on home soil with 200 million supporters behind you? And the win came against the absolute worst team in the tournament?

Hopefully Colombia/France/Germany do the business against them.
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Re: Updated Goldman Sachs prediction model - Brazil to win W

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I am not convinced Argentina will beat Belgium
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Re: Updated Goldman Sachs prediction model - Brazil to win W

Post by platinum »

:rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf:

yeye people, their model predicting the harder stage failed woefully, i think most people got the second round predictions correct, pretty much there were no upsets. They should stick to stealing.
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