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Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse
http://forum.cybereagles.com/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=251590
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Author:  peppersoup [ Thu Jul 10, 2014 9:15 am ]
Post subject:  Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... lapse.html


The world may still be reeling from last night’s World Cup semi-Final between Germany and Brazil, but none more so than Nate Silver the celebrated statistician behind the fivethiryeight blog. Silver had pegged Brazil as the favourites to win the cup and stated their chances of success against Germany last night at 65%.

Silver shot to prominence during the 2008 presidential elections when writing, initially under the pseudonym Poblano on the blog Daily Kos, before transferring to his own site in partnership with the New York Times in 2008. Since then he has gained public recognition for his PECOTA system which forecasted the performances and career developments for major league baseball players.

Throughout the game the 538 Twitter account, now aligned with sports broadcaster ESPN, was tweeting facts, figures and other statistics defending its position.

At 9.52pm, with two of Brazil’s top players out, Silver reassured the world that ‘the players replacing Neymar are going to be well above average.

'Following the 10.26 tweet of ‘OMG’ Silver came back with ‘According to @espn's SPI, which our model uses, odds of #GER scoring 5+ goals was 0.7%. A 5-0 final score? 1-in-1250. (via @ESPNStatsInfo)’

Author:  femibyte [ Thu Jul 10, 2014 4:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse

Dude, Nate Silver predicted 65% probabiltyfor Brazil to win the World Cup, which meant that there was a 35% chance they wouldn't. How this equates to a failure by Nate Silver beats me...

Author:  Cito [ Thu Jul 10, 2014 5:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse

femibyte wrote:
Dude, Nate Silver predicted 65% probabiltyfor Brazil to win the World Cup, which meant that there was a 35% chance they wouldn't. How this equates to a failure by Nate Silver beats me...

According to CE logic, a 65% probability equates to 100% as long as:
1. It fits their logic
2. They want to be right
3. They chose to ignore the obvious due to #1 above.

Author:  Bigpokey24 [ Thu Jul 10, 2014 9:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse

femibyte wrote:
Dude, Nate Silver predicted 65% probabiltyfor Brazil to win the World Cup, which meant that there was a 35% chance they wouldn't. How this equates to a failure by Nate Silver beats me...

dude hush... bottom line is i warned you suare will be sold, instead nah lambert and lalana una buy :lol:

Author:  nanijoe [ Thu Jul 10, 2014 10:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse

Nate Silver is pants at predicting soccer...and football for that matter. These games are subject to such randomness that only FIFA and the NFL execs can influence, err..predict who wins championships


femibyte wrote:
Dude, Nate Silver predicted 65% probabiltyfor Brazil to win the World Cup, which meant that there was a 35% chance they wouldn't. How this equates to a failure by Nate Silver beats me...

Author:  femibyte [ Fri Jul 11, 2014 10:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse

Bigpokey24 wrote:
femibyte wrote:
Dude, Nate Silver predicted 65% probabiltyfor Brazil to win the World Cup, which meant that there was a 35% chance they wouldn't. How this equates to a failure by Nate Silver beats me...

dude hush... bottom line is i warned you suare will be sold, instead nah lambert and lalana una buy :lol:


BP getting ahead of himself as usual.
The transfer window isn't shut yet, and the season hasn't started. Yet hear you go yarning opaks. Ok, Chelski's gonna win the title, with Mikel leading the way as captain. Happy now ? :roll: :roll:

Author:  tfco [ Fri Jul 11, 2014 11:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse

what does the thread title mean?

:? :?

Author:  Coach [ Fri Jul 11, 2014 12:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse

^Diaris God o!

Author:  tfco [ Fri Jul 11, 2014 3:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse

^ mugu where dey your False 9 analysis?

Author:  Bigpokey24 [ Tue Jul 29, 2014 11:35 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse

femibyte wrote:
Bigpokey24 wrote:
femibyte wrote:
Dude, Nate Silver predicted 65% probabiltyfor Brazil to win the World Cup, which meant that there was a 35% chance they wouldn't. How this equates to a failure by Nate Silver beats me...

dude hush... bottom line is i warned you suare will be sold, instead nah lambert and lalana una buy :lol:


BP getting ahead of himself as usual.
The transfer window isn't shut yet, and the season hasn't started. Yet hear you go yarning opaks. Ok, Chelski's gonna win the title, with Mikel leading the way as captain. Happy now ? :roll: :roll:

How far with suare

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