SUPER EAGLES.... Last 10 Games (DISCUSS)

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Adisboy
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Re: SUPER EAGLES.... Last 10 Games (DISCUSS)

Post by Adisboy »

oluwaseye the 1st. wrote: Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:51 pm Am surprised no one is seeing the reality that we will put up a very poor show at the next AFCON in January, i expect Rohr to be sacked immediately after.
That was the same expectation going into AFCON 2013, even during the tournament group stages but we all know what happened. Make we all chill.
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Re: SUPER EAGLES.... Last 10 Games (DISCUSS)

Post by Enugu II »

Adisboy wrote: Wed Oct 20, 2021 9:16 am
Enugu II wrote: Wed Oct 20, 2021 1:36 am
Cellular wrote: Wed Oct 20, 2021 1:28 am
Enugu II wrote: Tue Oct 19, 2021 12:58 am
#34 NIGERIA

1. Central Africa Republic (Rank #124) 2-0
2. Central Africa Republic 0-1
3. Cape Verde (#Rank #77 ) 2-1
4. Liberia (Rank #144) 2-0
5. Cameroon (Rank #58) 0-0,
6. Cameroon 0-1
7. Lesotho (Rank #145 ) 3 - 0
8. Benin Republic (Rank #82) 1-0
9. Sierra Leone (Rank #108) 0-0
10. Sierra Leone 4-4

RECORD (W-D-L): 5 - 3 - 2

DISCUSS .... Note the ranking differentials between the Super Eagles and their recent opponents (last 10 games).
We are not a good team... we only beat teams by happenchance.
Cell

I feel that if this trend is indeed visionary, then we all must be concerned and have to ask questions. We just do not sit down and chuckle. What can Rohr consider to turn this around? At this rate there is no guarantee that we can overcome Cape Verde at home eventhough that us crucial for our World Cup campaign. What are things that Rohr can consider? Is it simply the playing surface at home? I doubt it. Is it a need to rejig the side? Maybe. What else can be done to shake the trend?
Prof, I know that you have been around long enough to know the antecedents of the SE since the late 80's. With that you should know that it makes no sense using a trend of games to predict what the future performance of the SE would be. VanCity provided you with the results of matches prior to and after our AFCON 2013 triumph. We all know that nobody could confidently say we would win the AFCON that year based on our pre-performances. We were not even in the conversation till we showed what we are " we rise to the occasion"! As I pointed earlier we have never had a great run of games prior to any of our greatest triumphs e.g. 1994 & 2013 AFCONs, 1996 Olympics etc. It is very wrong to base our presumption of what will happen based on current run of results. E.g we lost at home 3-1 to Togo before leaving for Atlanta, prior to the 1994 WC we won only against Georgia (European minnow) out of the friendlies we played - lost 2nil to Romania & 3-1 to Sweden. Prior to AFCON 2013 we drew with Cape Verde 0-0, etc. In qualifying for the 2014 WC, we never scored more than twice in any of the qualifiers againts the likes of Malawi, Namibia, Kenya & Ethiopia. Infact in the prior group stage (similar format to the current qualifiers) we finished with 12 points from 6 games - 3 wins & 3 draws. Considering the opposition and the fact that we were African champions one would have expected us to win all 6, but that has never been the SE's modus operandi. Rohr clearly has one of the best records qualifying for tournament in that it normally doesn't get down to the last match but has only been to one AFCON & one WC with us. Another reason why this "trend" analysis is useless is if you look at the last AFCON, we started with 2 1-0 wins in the 1st 2 games against Burundi & Guinea, then lost 2-0 to Madagascar. Going by your trend, it would have been a certainty that in the round of 16 game against Cameroun, we would have been eliminated, but we all know what happened. If we go back to 1994, Cameroon & Morocco had better records in qualifying than Nigeria, but we were miles ahead at the tournament proper. The typical scenario for the SE is qualify for the tournament (no matter how), then perform in the tournament proper. In all the matches we have played this year, probably except for the 2nd friendly game against Cameroun, we have dominated the games. There was not one in which our team was hanging on so i do not see what the issues are. If we don't underate teams in the next 2 games we qualify. We should all just chill and judge this team in the tournaments proper, any other assumption makes no sense.
Adisboy,

First, the analysis by Vancity has nothing to do with trend and is, therefore, irrelevant to this debate. What Vancity provides is a selection of games of which only he knows what guides the selection. It neither reflects the 5 games prior to the AFCON win of 2013 nor does it reflect the five games immediately after. Let me remind you that one of the five games before 2013 AFCON was a 3-1 win over Venezuela. WAs it on Vanciuty's list? The answer is "No." Two of five games following the AFCON win were 2-2 with Mexico and 6-1 over Tahiti. Were those on Vancity's list? The answer is "No." Let us even assume that he just wanted to select only games against African opposition, why then did he include the lost to Peru? In any case, have you not wondered why Vancity excluded those three games in his so-called trend analysis? Bros, I check the records and a wool cannot easily be thrown over my eyes with a purported record of a trend! That is a fraud attempt at best.

In any case, let me address your point. A trend does not portend any certainty. First, except if one has the power of clairvoyance, one cannot predict when a trend ends or begins. We can only identify it when it is happening or is already underway. Therefore, I or anyone else cannot claim that Nigeria will win not win the AFCON. What I can do is identify a trend as it exists. That is what has been done here. Nothing more, nothing less. A trend simply is a forecast of a possible future outcome but there can never be a certainty as to what that outcome maybe.
The difficulties of statistical thinking describes a puzzling limitation of our mind: our excessive confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent inability to acknowledge the full extent of our ignorance and the uncertainty of the world we live in. We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events -- Daniel Kahneman (2011), Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
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Re: SUPER EAGLES.... Last 10 Games (DISCUSS)

Post by Eaglezbeak »

oluwaseye the 1st. wrote: Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:51 pm Am surprised no one is seeing the reality that we will put up a very poor show at the next AFCON in January, i expect Rohr to be sacked immediately after.
Hopefully it’ll be cancelled it’s nonsense anyway,they need to
need to reorganise the way they do things at CAFand as for Nigeria hopefully after the World Cup they NFF will disband.There’s nothing good coming out of amateurism when you’re talking about competing with nations that are 25+ years ahead when it comes to professionalism.
WHAT SHALL BE SHALL BE SABI
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Re: SUPER EAGLES.... Last 10 Games (DISCUSS)

Post by Eaglezbeak »

Eaglezbeak wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:17 pm
oluwaseye the 1st. wrote: Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:51 pm Am surprised no one is seeing the reality that we will put up a very poor show at the next AFCON in January, i expect Rohr to be sacked immediately after.
Hopefully it’ll be cancelled it’s nonsense anyway,they need to
reorganise the way they do things at CAF and as for Nigeria hopefully after the World Cup the NFF will disband.There’s nothing good coming out of amateurism when you’re talking about competing with nations that are 25+ years ahead when it comes to professionalism.
WHAT SHALL BE SHALL BE SABI

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