The NFF and Escalation of Commitment

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OJI
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The NFF and Escalation of Commitment

Post by OJI »

Escalation of commitment describes our tendency to remain committed to our past behaviors, particularly those exhibited publicly, even if they do not have desirable outcomes.

When we dedicate ourselves to a plan, and it isn't going as we hoped, our first instinct isn't usually to rethink it. Instead, we tend to double down and sink more resources in the plan.

We persist with failing strategies when one has to pivot. NFF managers keep investing in new contracts. Politicians continue sending soldiers to wars that didn't need to be fought in the first place. Sunk costs are a factor, but the most important cause of this pattern is psychological rather than economic. Escalation of commitment happens because we are rationalizing creatures, constantly reaching for self justifications for our prior beliefs as a way to sooth our egos, shield our images, and validate past decisions.

Gernot Rohr should have been let go after World Cup 2018. But the infinitesimal wisdom and decision making of the Pinnick-led NFF has ensured we have wasted the past 3 years.

The damage has been done.

The next (interim) coach of Nigeria, players, administrators, and fans of Nigerian football must face the facts, and come to the conclusion that the 3 group games (and possibly 2 extra more) at the upcoming 2021 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) should be seen and executed as friendlies in preparation for the Qatar WC qualifier(s). The AFCON tournament should be the rebuilding tournament were team belief, confidence, character, and positive mentality restored.
Enugu II
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Re: The NFF and Escalation of Commitment

Post by Enugu II »

OJI wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:44 am Escalation of commitment describes our tendency to remain committed to our past behaviors, particularly those exhibited publicly, even if they do not have desirable outcomes.

When we dedicate ourselves to a plan, and it isn't going as we hoped, our first instinct isn't usually to rethink it. Instead, we tend to double down and sink more resources in the plan.

We persist with failing strategies when one has to pivot. NFF managers keep investing in new contracts. Politicians continue sending soldiers to wars that didn't need to be fought in the first place. Sunk costs are a factor, but the most important cause of this pattern is psychological rather than economic. Escalation of commitment happens because we are rationalizing creatures, constantly reaching for self justifications for our prior beliefs as a way to sooth our egos, shield our images, and validate past decisions.

Gernot Rohr should have been let go after World Cup 2018. But the infinitesimal wisdom and decision making of the Pinnick-led NFF has ensured we have wasted the past 3 years.

The damage has been done.

The next (interim) coach of Nigeria, players, administrators, and fans of Nigerian football must face the facts, and come to the conclusion that the 3 group games (and possibly 2 extra more) at the upcoming 2021 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) should be seen and executed as friendlies in preparation for the Qatar WC qualifier(s). The AFCON tournament should be the rebuilding tournament were team belief, confidence, character, and positive mentality restored.
TRUE WORD.

This defines Pinnick. I had long sounded the alarm and Pinnick's belief and commitment to his spectacular wins with Delta athletics where he was alleged to have worked in naturalizing several American-born athletes to dominate the Sports Festival in Nigeria. It was a HUGE WIN for Delta State with Amaju as Director of Sports. Note that this was the eventual reason why only locally based athletes were allowed to participate at the National Sports Festival.

Having succeeded there, he possibly believed the theory that athletes trained overseas are decidedly superior to local ones. He has implemented this without hesitation since he became NFF Chairman. See our junior teams and see the Super Eagles. It has failed spectacularly at the junior team levels. At the Super Eagles, it has not been successful either. As you noted, since it succeeded at the athletics competition he continues to force it with the belief that it is just a matter of time.
The difficulties of statistical thinking describes a puzzling limitation of our mind: our excessive confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent inability to acknowledge the full extent of our ignorance and the uncertainty of the world we live in. We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events -- Daniel Kahneman (2011), Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics

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