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Probable route for Nigeria

Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:02 pm
by marutimon
1/8 final
Tunisia / Gambia (95+% chance barring some crazy results Nigeria will play the loser of that game or Tunisia if it's a draw)

1/4 final
Winner of Burkina Faso / Gabon

1/2 final
I would place a bet on Senegal being the semifinalist, but who knows?

FINAL

Re: Probable route for Nigeria

Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:04 pm
by Synopsis
Hoping Tunisia wins their final game so we can avoid playing them so early.

Re: Probable route for Nigeria

Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:07 pm
by Lolly
Synopsis wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:04 pm Hoping Tunisia wins their final game so we can avoid playing them so early.
You prefer Gambia to Tunisia? Hmmm

Re: Probable route for Nigeria

Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:11 pm
by Robotnik
Was thinking Malawi in the round of 16 or Sierra Leone

Re: Probable route for Nigeria

Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:13 pm
by Lolly
Robotnik wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:11 pm Was thinking Malawi in the round of 16 or Sierra Leone
I think it’s 3rd place qualifier from Group B, E, or F in that order.

Re: Probable route for Nigeria

Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:18 pm
by ANC
Lolly wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:07 pm
Synopsis wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:04 pm Hoping Tunisia wins their final game so we can avoid playing them so early.
You prefer Gambia to Tunisia? Hmmm

yes. history matters

Re: Probable route for Nigeria

Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:19 pm
by Synopsis
Lolly wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:07 pm
Synopsis wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:04 pm Hoping Tunisia wins their final game so we can avoid playing them so early.
You prefer Gambia to Tunisia? Hmmm
Yes.

Re: Probable route for Nigeria

Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:23 pm
by Robotnik
Lolly wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:13 pm
Robotnik wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:11 pm Was thinking Malawi in the round of 16 or Sierra Leone
I think it’s 3rd place qualifier from Group B, E, or F in that order.
Malawi in group B

Re: Probable route for Nigeria

Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:34 pm
by Lolly
Robotnik wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:23 pm
Lolly wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:13 pm
Robotnik wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:11 pm Was thinking Malawi in the round of 16 or Sierra Leone
I think it’s 3rd place qualifier from Group B, E, or F in that order.
Malawi in group B
We are playing Malawi if we win our group

Re: Probable route for Nigeria

Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:35 pm
by Lolly
ANC wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:18 pm
Lolly wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:07 pm
Synopsis wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:04 pm Hoping Tunisia wins their final game so we can avoid playing them so early.
You prefer Gambia to Tunisia? Hmmm

yes. history matters
The Tunisia we beat in 2019 third place match?

When last did Tunisia beat us in a competitive game?

Re: Probable route for Nigeria

Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:46 pm
by Synopsis
Lolly wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:35 pm
ANC wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:18 pm
Lolly wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:07 pm
Synopsis wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:04 pm Hoping Tunisia wins their final game so we can avoid playing them so early.
You prefer Gambia to Tunisia? Hmmm

yes. history matters
The Tunisia we beat in 2019 third place match?

When last did Tunisia beat us in a competitive game?
When was the last time Gambia beat us?

Re: Probable route for Nigeria

Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:54 pm
by Lolly
Synopsis wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:46 pm
Lolly wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:35 pm
ANC wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:18 pm
Lolly wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:07 pm
Synopsis wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:04 pm Hoping Tunisia wins their final game so we can avoid playing them so early.
You prefer Gambia to Tunisia? Hmmm

yes. history matters
The Tunisia we beat in 2019 third place match?

When last did Tunisia beat us in a competitive game?
When was the last time Gambia beat us?
Gambia has 5 players in Serie A. It’s not the same Gambia of old. I will prefer Tunisia because North African teams don’t do too well in West Africa.

Re: Probable route for Nigeria

Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:58 pm
by airwolex
Lolly wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:07 pm
Synopsis wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:04 pm Hoping Tunisia wins their final game so we can avoid playing them so early.
You prefer Gambia to Tunisia? Hmmm
Yes nah

Re: Probable route for Nigeria

Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 1:11 pm
by Scipio Africanus
Lolly wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:07 pm
Synopsis wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:04 pm Hoping Tunisia wins their final game so we can avoid playing them so early.
You prefer Gambia to Tunisia? Hmmm
I concur. I'd rather face Tunisia than Gambia.

Re: Probable route for Nigeria

Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 1:54 pm
by Lolly
Scipio Africanus wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 1:11 pm
Lolly wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:07 pm
Synopsis wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:04 pm Hoping Tunisia wins their final game so we can avoid playing them so early.
You prefer Gambia to Tunisia? Hmmm
I concur. I'd rather face Tunisia than Gambia.
Same here.

Re: Probable route for Nigeria

Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:07 pm
by Tbite
It says Group B/E/F on Wikipedia.

Malawi are currently the top of the pile.

If Tunisia beats Gambia, they will finish 1st or 2nd, but lets say they beat them by 2 goals, that puts Gambia at -1, which puts them below Malawi?

In which case, Morocco would be more likely to face Gambia than us. Senegal will likely face Cape Verde.

Re: Probable route for Nigeria

Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:12 pm
by naijaguy
Lolly wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:34 pm
Robotnik wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:23 pm
Lolly wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:13 pm
Robotnik wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:11 pm Was thinking Malawi in the round of 16 or Sierra Leone
I think it’s 3rd place qualifier from Group B, E, or F in that order.
Malawi in group B
We are playing Malawi if we win our group
We've already won our group. This last game is just more or less a friendly match.

Re: Probable route for Nigeria

Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:17 pm
by Tbite
Lolly wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:13 pm
Robotnik wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:11 pm Was thinking Malawi in the round of 16 or Sierra Leone
I think it’s 3rd place qualifier from Group B, E, or F in that order.
Ahhh so the tiebreaker is only for the spots available, irrespective of who the superior side is, it will be the team from Group B, assuming they make the cutoff. So it will be Malawi, even if Gambia are the superior side.

Assuming Malawi makes it. Only in the event that a team from Group B does not even make it, THEN Groups E and F factor in.

Disregard my last post.

Re: Probable route for Nigeria

Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:21 pm
by waka-man
Tbite wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:17 pm
Lolly wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:13 pm
Robotnik wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:11 pm Was thinking Malawi in the round of 16 or Sierra Leone
I think it’s 3rd place qualifier from Group B, E, or F in that order.
Ahhh so the tiebreaker is only for the spots available, irrespective of who the superior side is, it will be the team from Group B, assuming they make the cutoff. So it will be Malawi, even if Gambia are the superior side.

Assuming Malawi makes it. Only in the event that a team from Group B does not even make it, THEN Groups E and F factor in.

Disregard my last post.
We disregard all your posts :taunt: :taunt: :taunt:

Re: Probable route for Nigeria

Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:27 pm
by marutimon
The likely teams to qualify are from groups A, B, E and F (it might also be C instead of F).
A B and F are shoe ins unless we have some freak results (like Tunisia losing by 4 goals to Gambia, Sudan beating Egypt or Nigeria losing to Guinea Bissau).

In both cases A B C F and A B E F Nigeria will play the third placed team in group F (ergo the loser of Tunisia vs Gambia).

Senegal get Cape Verde, Cameroon get Malawi and Morocco will play Comoros or someone from group E (funnily any team can finish third in that group, including Cote d'Ivoire.

Re: Probable route for Nigeria

Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:28 pm
by marutimon
Tbite wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:17 pm
Lolly wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:13 pm
Robotnik wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:11 pm Was thinking Malawi in the round of 16 or Sierra Leone
I think it’s 3rd place qualifier from Group B, E, or F in that order.
Ahhh so the tiebreaker is only for the spots available, irrespective of who the superior side is, it will be the team from Group B, assuming they make the cutoff. So it will be Malawi, even if Gambia are the superior side.

Assuming Malawi makes it. Only in the event that a team from Group B does not even make it, THEN Groups E and F factor in.

Disregard my last post.
Wrong. Read above. The chances Nigeria play Malawi are minimal, unless you get some freak results like Guinea Bissau beating us. Group F is the likely candidate.

Re: Probable route for Nigeria

Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:35 pm
by Zelex
marutimon wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:28 pm
Tbite wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:17 pm
Lolly wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:13 pm
Robotnik wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:11 pm Was thinking Malawi in the round of 16 or Sierra Leone
I think it’s 3rd place qualifier from Group B, E, or F in that order.
Ahhh so the tiebreaker is only for the spots available, irrespective of who the superior side is, it will be the team from Group B, assuming they make the cutoff. So it will be Malawi, even if Gambia are the superior side.

Assuming Malawi makes it. Only in the event that a team from Group B does not even make it, THEN Groups E and F factor in.

Disregard my last post.
Wrong. Read above. The chances Nigeria play Malawi are minimal, unless you get some freak results like Guinea Bissau beating us. Group F is the likely candidate.
Yep, you are right there. Group F is indeed the likely candidate (I would say a 85% chance). Then group E (maybe 10%) and group B (5%). It's either Tunisia or Gambia from group F. I think most likely is Tunisia. They potentially have 12 players out for tomorrows game (vs Gambia) due to covid.

Re: Probable route for Nigeria

Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:38 pm
by Damunk
Sorry….how do they determine exactly which of the four best losers meets who, when they say B/E/F?
Is that the order?
If all 3rd placed teams in those three groups qualify, does it mean we meet the team from GpB rather than GpE?[*][*]