Local Vs Foreign Coach Debate. Data and Statistics since 1980

[ahidjo2]

AFCON Records for Nigeria: Local Vs Foreign Coach
Year -----------Position--------------------Coach-------------*Points
1980 -------------1st------------------------Foreign---------------7
1982 -------Group stage Exit-------------Foreign---------------1
1984 -------------2nd-----------------------Local-----------------6
1986--Did not qualify(DNQ)--------------Local-----------------0
1988 -------------2nd-----------------------Foreign--------------6
1990 -------------2nd-----------------------Foreign--------------6
1992 -------------3rd-----------------------Foreign--------------5
1994 -------------1st-----------------------Foreign---------------7
1996 -----------No show--------------------NA------------------NA
1998 -----------No show--------------------NA------------------NA
2000 -------------2nd-----------------------Foreign-------------6
2002 -------------3rd-----------------------Local----------------5
2004 -------------3rd-----------------------Local----------------5
2006 -------------3rd-----------------------Local----------------5
2008 ------Quarter final------------------Foreign-------------3
2010 -------------3rd-----------------------Local---------------3
2012 ------------DNQ-----------------------Local---------------0
2013 ------------1st-------------------------Local--------------7
2015 ------------DNQ------------------------Local--------------0
2017 ------------DNQ------------------------Local--------------0
2019 ------------3rd-------------------------Foreign------------5
2021 ------Second round-------------------Local--------------1
2023 -----------2nd--------------------------Foreign-----------6

Position Points
1st ----------7
2nd ----------6
3rd ----------5
4th ---------4
Quarter final----3
Second round---2
Group exit------1
Did not qualify(DNQ)--0

-------------------------Local-------Foreign---
In charge--------------------11 times-----10 times
1st-----------------------------1-------------2
2nd----------------------------1------------4
3rd----------------------------4------------2
4th----------------------------0------------0
Quarter final----------------0------------1
Second Round Exit---------1------------0
Group exit------------------0------------1
Did not qualify for competition--4------0
Average performance points----2.91------5.2

Summary
• Local coaches have had more opportunities (11) than foreign coaches (10 times) since 1980.
• No foreign coach has ever failed to qualify for AFCON since 1980
• Out of the 10 times foreign coaches made it to AFCON, they have made it to at least the semis (3rd) 8 times (80%). Local is 55%
• The local coaches have failed to qualify Nigeria for AFCON 4 times (all 4 times we missed AFCON).
• A statistical analysis showed that the difference between the performance points is statistically Significant. Foreign coaches (M = 5.2) have significantly better performance than their local counterparts (M = 2.91).

ahidjo2,

I have just now looked at the data and have a few comments:

1. What is the formula that you have used in calculating the average? Please share.
Thanks Enugu. The averages were computed the normal way (total points divided by number of assigned points). I have changed the observed error in the assignment ( 3 changed to 5 for 2010). Average for local change moved from 2.91 to 3.1
2. Is there a reason why your data starts in 1980 and not 1957 when the AFCON began and Nigeria had long participated prior to 1980?
It was my statistical choice. It is not a right or wrong choice as long as discussions and conclusions are limited to this period of time to avoid extrapolation errors. Other statistical analyses can be conducted to include prior years. Personally, I think that starting the analysis from when the competition started would make little sense considering the changes, innovations and disruptions that have taken since then. Just like in research, articles that are too old are usually excluded from review for similar reasons. How far out is usually at the discretion of the reviewer or institution. FIFA was at a time using the average of a countries performance over a 5-year period to compute the FIFA ranking and never used the average of all years since soccer started. Same applies to trends. 5-year, 10-year. 1980 is the turning point in Nigeria's soccer history and prior to that year, the debate of Foreign vs Local coach was not as loud as it is in the past 20 years or so.
3. A notation to the above: It is possible not to take into consideration when the AFCON started but there has to be a pertinent reason for doing so. For instance, one could argue that 1974 could be used instead given that year long training for Nigerian footballers was not prevalent until the league was introduced in 1972 which impacted performance by Nigeria as is amply demonstrated by its clubs at the continental level and the performance of the national team which took off only thereafter.
Like stated above, further analysis can also be conducted to include those years but I feel that the impact of the civil war was still being felt in Nigeria in the early 70s and affected the National teams to an extent. Club football was however, a different story
4.You could also use 1988 or 1988 another marker, given that it was a period Nigeria drew significantly from footballers based overseas.
There are many reasons to start from any year. Like stated above, the chief reason for 1980 as my base year was that it was our first year of winning the trophy. Again, any person can do an analysis starting with any year of his choice as long as conclusions are confined to the chosen years. There is no formula for choosing a starting year. People will still question your 1988 choice and rightly so.
5. The point is that the use of 1980 appears quite arbitrary.
See explanations above
6. Given that the AFCON has been expanded along the years, it seems to me that the awarding of points beyond the third place finish is questionable. What is actually more consistent throughout the years of the AFCON is the top 3 finish and thus can be comparable over the years including the expansion years.
There will never be a perfect analysis that satisfies every interest. You are right. As I also stated above, there are lots of variables that come into play and it's not easy to factor in all those variables consistently across the years. If I limit the analysis to only the the top 3 performances, how then do we account for other positions or finishes including non-qualification? It is purely a design issue aimed at addressing specific questions. Even your suggestions of limiting only to the top 3 performances will be questionable.
7. Why are foreign managers given credit, in your analysis, for 1980 and 1990. In those two years, I hope there is also the realization that it was a local manager that actually qualified the team to both tournaments (Paul Hamilton)? In fact, Hoener did not arrive until the tournament itself. This point may be unnecessary, except that you stress as a critical point the qualification to the tournament finals.
My focus was on AFCON performances. The only times that a qualification coach was factored in was when we did not qualify for the tournament. Your argument for 1980 and 1990 can also be extended to Rohr who qualified the team for the 2021 AFCON but did not coach the team at the tournament proper.

The points raised above are to put more context to the data that you have advanced. My view, I suspect that the data will will show that Nigeria accumulated more points under a foreign manager but the difference in points will be quite close and in a territory that is more likely insignificant. Nevertheless, one looks forward to your response.

I thoroughly understand. The analysis needed to be narrowed to limit the effect of time (and the changes that came with it). There will be hardly any direction taken that will not be questionable. In statistics, when the base and final points are chosen, all conclusions are drawn within those two time points. Thanks


The above constitute my thoughts.

[txj]

Not in Finland. I moved there on an EXPATRIATE contract. I got a housing allowance but otherwise my pay was within the local pay range. In Nigeria we are talking about expatriates earning several multiples of what locals earned. In my experience as an external counsel to, and inhouse counsel at multinationals, black African expatriates were also paid lower. In Nigeria it is mostly a skin colour issue.

Is it just skin color or hazard pay? What is the incentive for an expatriate to leave a first world country to go work in a backwards 3rd world country (that's on many do not travel lists) other than pay? I know we want to boil it down to simply 'race', but there are a lot of 'black' folks (some even with Nigerian roots) taking advantage of this and getting a higher 'hazard' pay in Nigeria as an expatriate...its more nuanced than you are painting it to be...

I know about hazard pay but it doesn't explain ×5 or x10 disparities in pay in multinationals. The few Nigerian born expatriates that get such contracts are outliers and often earned less than their white counterparts. Even Indians and Filipinos often earned more than locals but less than Nigerians.

Based on prevailing exchange rate?

I think you are trying too hard to make this fit into a preconceived narrative...

This was the case even in 2014 when I left Nigeria. I don't even want to imagine what it is now. Nothing preconceived in my narrative. It is the truth. There is a premium payment uplift that comes with white skin in Nigeria. It is the same across multinationals, NGOs and even our football.

Your statement doesn't jive with reality

It jives with the reality of pay structures all over Nigeria. Expatriates typically earned x5 to x10 (before considering benefits like hardship allowances) than locals for similar roles 1p years ago. It has become worse even now.

I think you should read what wanajo and Maceo wrote above. It is more nuanced than you have led yourself to believe that it is all about race...

[aruako1]

Is it just skin color or hazard pay? What is the incentive for an expatriate to leave a first world country to go work in a backwards 3rd world country (that's on many do not travel lists) other than pay? I know we want to boil it down to simply 'race', but there are a lot of 'black' folks (some even with Nigerian roots) taking advantage of this and getting a higher 'hazard' pay in Nigeria as an expatriate...its more nuanced than you are painting it to be...

I know about hazard pay but it doesn't explain ×5 or x10 disparities in pay in multinationals. The few Nigerian born expatriates that get such contracts are outliers and often earned less than their white counterparts. Even Indians and Filipinos often earned more than locals but less than Nigerians.

Based on prevailing exchange rate?

I think you are trying too hard to make this fit into a preconceived narrative...

This was the case even in 2014 when I left Nigeria. I don't even want to imagine what it is now. Nothing preconceived in my narrative. It is the truth. There is a premium payment uplift that comes with white skin in Nigeria. It is the same across multinationals, NGOs and even our football.

Your statement doesn't jive with reality

It jives with the reality of pay structures all over Nigeria. Expatriates typically earned x5 to x10 (before considering benefits like hardship allowances) than locals for similar roles 1p years ago. It has become worse even now.

I think you should read what wanajo and Maceo wrote above. It is more nuanced than you have led yourself to believe that it is all about race...

And you should read my response about black expatriates from African countries and India earning far less than white expatriates. I have advised multinational and other companies on employment issues as a lawyer in one of Nigeria's top law firms. I have also been inhouse counsel for a big multinational in Nigeria. I know what I'm talking about.

[aruako1]

Finidi only has a goalkeeper trainer as coaching staff. But local managers are treated the same

[txj]

All professional coaches have their own staff that move with them wherever they go.
Mourinho for instance has had some staff with him for decades...

Siasia had his own from the youth teams to the SE.

Its up to Finidi.

He has the choice to be professional or not to be. To have his own staff or not to.
However I suspect that if/when he gets the appointment on a full time basis that he'll have the professionalism to assemble his own team.

This tendency of seeing ghosts of maltreatment every time a local takes the job is simply pathetic.
Some of you are no longer football fans and need to scoot over to RnR...

Finidi only has a goalkeeper trainer as coaching staff. But local managers are treated the same

[aruako1]

All professional coaches have their own staff that move with them wherever they go.
Mourinho for instance has had some staff with him for decades...

Siasia had his own from the youth teams to the SE.

Its up to Finidi.

He has the choice to be professional or not to be. To have his own staff or not to.
However I suspect that if/when he gets the appointment on a full time basis that he'll have the professionalism to assemble his own team.

This tendency of seeing ghosts of maltreatment every time a local takes the job is simply pathetic.
Some of you are no longer football fans and need to scoot over to RnR...

Finidi only has a goalkeeper trainer as coaching staff. But local managers are treated the same

The fact us that Peseiro had a full compliment of staff but Finidi doesnt - facts are stubborn. You say he is interim but he will be judged the same as a permanent foreign manager (ask Eguavoen). I appreciate that the facts I have pointed out may be inconvenient, but they are true. I have been consistent in saying that my preferred managers for now are Mosimane and Goncalves, both foreign. I even like Conceicao. But I will never stop pointing out inconsistencies in conditions between local and foreign managers. Not in this life; not in the next.

[txj]

All professional coaches have their own staff that move with them wherever they go.
Mourinho for instance has had some staff with him for decades...

Siasia had his own from the youth teams to the SE.

Its up to Finidi.

He has the choice to be professional or not to be. To have his own staff or not to.
However I suspect that if/when he gets the appointment on a full time basis that he'll have the professionalism to assemble his own team.

This tendency of seeing ghosts of maltreatment every time a local takes the job is simply pathetic.
Some of you are no longer football fans and need to scoot over to RnR...

Finidi only has a goalkeeper trainer as coaching staff. But local managers are treated the same

The fact us that Peseiro had a full compliment of staff but Finidi doesnt - facts are stubborn. You say he is interim but he will be judged the same as a permanent foreign manager (ask Eguavoen). I appreciate that the facts I have pointed out may be inconvenient, but they are true. I have been consistent in saying that my preferred managers for now are Mosimane and Goncalves, both foreign. I even like Conceicao. But I will never stop pointing out inconsistencies in conditions between local and foreign managers. Not in this life; not in the next.

You conveniently forget that Siasia had his own staff.

The inconsistency is a figment of your imagination.

Its up to Finidi to have his own staff. He should have one already from having coached Enyimba that he can bring to the SE if made permanent...

[aruako1]

All professional coaches have their own staff that move with them wherever they go.
Mourinho for instance has had some staff with him for decades...

Siasia had his own from the youth teams to the SE.

Its up to Finidi.

He has the choice to be professional or not to be. To have his own staff or not to.
However I suspect that if/when he gets the appointment on a full time basis that he'll have the professionalism to assemble his own team.

This tendency of seeing ghosts of maltreatment every time a local takes the job is simply pathetic.
Some of you are no longer football fans and need to scoot over to RnR...

Finidi only has a goalkeeper trainer as coaching staff. But local managers are treated the same

The fact us that Peseiro had a full compliment of staff but Finidi doesnt - facts are stubborn. You say he is interim but he will be judged the same as a permanent foreign manager (ask Eguavoen). I appreciate that the facts I have pointed out may be inconvenient, but they are true. I have been consistent in saying that my preferred managers for now are Mosimane and Goncalves, both foreign. I even like Conceicao. But I will never stop pointing out inconsistencies in conditions between local and foreign managers. Not in this life; not in the next.

You conveniently forget that Siasia had his own staff.

The inconsistency is a figment of your imagination.

Its up to Finidi to have his own staff. He should have one already from having coached Enyimba that he can bring to the SE if made permanent...

Nope. You agreed that he probably did not have a team because he is interim. I countered that as an interim coach he will be compared to foreign coaches (see Eguavoen for instance).

P.S. your second sentence was very unnecessary and added nothing to your point. Hopefully we can keep it civil

[txj]

All professional coaches have their own staff that move with them wherever they go.
Mourinho for instance has had some staff with him for decades...

Siasia had his own from the youth teams to the SE.

Its up to Finidi.

He has the choice to be professional or not to be. To have his own staff or not to.
However I suspect that if/when he gets the appointment on a full time basis that he'll have the professionalism to assemble his own team.

This tendency of seeing ghosts of maltreatment every time a local takes the job is simply pathetic.
Some of you are no longer football fans and need to scoot over to RnR...

Finidi only has a goalkeeper trainer as coaching staff. But local managers are treated the same

The fact us that Peseiro had a full compliment of staff but Finidi doesnt - facts are stubborn. You say he is interim but he will be judged the same as a permanent foreign manager (ask Eguavoen). I appreciate that the facts I have pointed out may be inconvenient, but they are true. I have been consistent in saying that my preferred managers for now are Mosimane and Goncalves, both foreign. I even like Conceicao. But I will never stop pointing out inconsistencies in conditions between local and foreign managers. Not in this life; not in the next.

You conveniently forget that Siasia had his own staff.

The inconsistency is a figment of your imagination.

Its up to Finidi to have his own staff. He should have one already from having coached Enyimba that he can bring to the SE if made permanent...

Nope. You agreed that he probably did not have a team because he is interim. I countered that as an interim coach he will be compared to foreign coaches (see Eguavoen for instance).

P.S. your second sentence was very unnecessary and added nothing to your point. Hopefully we can keep it civil

Yes he will not need a team as an interim. But he also didn't have one in Enyimba...

As an interim he'll be compared to his predecessor. That's the business of football coaching.

Clearly you're wedded to the racism narrative and tend to see everything from that perspective.

Sadly that is not real life...

[aruako1]

All professional coaches have their own staff that move with them wherever they go.
Mourinho for instance has had some staff with him for decades...

Siasia had his own from the youth teams to the SE.

Its up to Finidi.

He has the choice to be professional or not to be. To have his own staff or not to.
However I suspect that if/when he gets the appointment on a full time basis that he'll have the professionalism to assemble his own team.

This tendency of seeing ghosts of maltreatment every time a local takes the job is simply pathetic.
Some of you are no longer football fans and need to scoot over to RnR...

Finidi only has a goalkeeper trainer as coaching staff. But local managers are treated the same

The fact us that Peseiro had a full compliment of staff but Finidi doesnt - facts are stubborn. You say he is interim but he will be judged the same as a permanent foreign manager (ask Eguavoen). I appreciate that the facts I have pointed out may be inconvenient, but they are true. I have been consistent in saying that my preferred managers for now are Mosimane and Goncalves, both foreign. I even like Conceicao. But I will never stop pointing out inconsistencies in conditions between local and foreign managers. Not in this life; not in the next.

You conveniently forget that Siasia had his own staff.

The inconsistency is a figment of your imagination.

Its up to Finidi to have his own staff. He should have one already from having coached Enyimba that he can bring to the SE if made permanent...

Nope. You agreed that he probably did not have a team because he is interim. I countered that as an interim coach he will be compared to foreign coaches (see Eguavoen for instance).

P.S. your second sentence was very unnecessary and added nothing to your point. Hopefully we can keep it civil

Yes he will not need a team as an interim. But he also didn't have one in Enyimba...

As an interim he'll be compared to his predecessor. That's the business of football coaching.

Clearly you're wedded to the racism narrative and tend to see everything from that perspective.

Sadly that is not real life...

I live in the UK and I have not littered my posts with racism complaints. I live in a Borough that overwhelmingly voted for Brexit but I have largely had a pleasant experience with my neighbours, at the supermarkets, pubs etc. If I see everything from that perspective, show me my daily rants about racism in my life. Employment in Nigeria favours those with white skins - that is the truth. I won't fail to call that out because it doesn't suit your narrative. And as the discussion has taken an ad hominem turn with your last two posts, this is my last response to you on the topic.