World Cup Qualifier: Route to a Critical Win in South Africa

[Enugu II]

As Nigeria awaits a FIFA decision on South Africa’s use of an ineligible player in a World Cup qualifier, it must prepare for a challenge it faces even after South Africa is duly docked three points from that transgression. That challenge is the realization that it must win in South Africa to get an opportunity to reach the World Cup final where as many as 9 countries will represent the continent.

Manager Eric Chelle...Pragmatism beckons....

Let’s get straight to the issue. What must Nigeria do to win in South Africa? Let’s look at the data first:
Since Nigeria’s credible performances in Gernot Rohr’s first term, Nigeria has been on a visible downward trend except for a short period during the last AFCON tournament in Ivory Coasty. Given this trajectory, it is important then to examine clear markers during each of those trends: (1) Rohr’s second term until the last AFCON; (2) The Last AGFCON, and (3) After the last AFCON. The question is what happened during each of those periods? What are data points that differentiate one period from the other? Eric Chelle, the new Manager, must think about realities and not merely what fans would enjoy on the field.

Rohr had his contract extended in 2020 and the team’s tailspin began around that period with Rohr failing to win any of his first four games after his contract renewal. More telling, however, was the team failing to maintain a clean sheet in more than three consecutive games. Throughout Eguavoen’s brief managership and Jose Peseiro’s run, Nigeria failed to maintain a clean sheet for no more than two consecutive games even against teams decidedly ranked lower.

The above led Jose Peseito to rethink Nigeria’s formation. That singular actr led to an AFCON final but importantly to a four-game run without conceding! The last time Nigeria had gone on a four game or more run without conceding was under Stephen Keshi when the team went six games without conceding on October 11, 2011, in Siasia’s last game through the first five games under Keshi until a 2-3 loss to Egypt in a friendly in Dubai on April 12, 2012.

Chelle must put his thinking cap on.....Nigeria depends on it

After the 2023 AFCON and the defensive solidity of the team under Peseiro, the team has failed to go more than three games without conceding and the last one was under interim Manager Eguavoen.

While simply looking at goal concession can be deceptive, there are markers that help differentiate at least the recent clean sheet at the last AFCON from the post-Keshi era. At the last AFCON where the team maintained one of its longest clean sheets it was clear that it did not occur by happenstance. After the opening game in the competition, the Manager made a clear decision to use five at the back when the opponent had the ball. The result was a watertight situation where opponents were limited in chances to score and opportunity to put across crosses. In the final where the team gave up surprising two goals it was because a key player – Ola Aina – was injured and was always a foot slower against the Ivorein winger Adingra.

In South Africa, for the World Cup qualifier, Nigeria must consider going back to a formation that clearly limited the opponent from scoring. That would provide a clear advantage to Nigeria. It will not only safeguard a team that is essentially a sieve for opponent goal scoring, but it will give Nigeria, still, opportunity to score. Nigeria, after all, has the deadliest attacker in today’s game anywhere the world. With Victor Osimhen, Nigeria is deadly both in the air and on the great whenever in the opponent’s area. All Nigeria must do in South Africa is use a formation that worked wonders at the AFCON to protect against its obvious deficiency while seeking multiple set pieces in opponent’s half to present the half chances that Osimhen thrives on.

Victor Osimhen...The man who may decide Nigeria's fate

In September, barely three months from now, the big contest against south Africa occurs in South African territory with a World Cup qualification on the line. It is up to Manager Chelle. He either plays pretty and crashes out of an opportunity to get to the World Cup or play ugly but effectively to get there.

[EMIR KONGI JAFFI JOFFA]

Rwanda game is the most important game in our history and it’s before SA. Based on recent performances, the chances of Rwanda getting a result in Nigeria is a whole lot more likely than SE winning in SA. Beat Rwanda first then worry about SA. Otherwise, the SA game will be a dead rubber. However, if we beat Rwanda, SA will be under such tremendous pressure that they’ll likely choke.

[Robotnik]

As long as SE continues conceding cheaps goals, qualifying for the WC will be impossible.
We need to fix that D.

[bret- hart]

When is FIFA deducting 3 points from South Africa? Its been months now

[Enugu II]

As long as SE continues conceding cheaps goals, qualifying for the WC will be impossible.
We need to fix that D.

KPOM. This is the coco of the matter.

[mcal]

...what is fifa waiting? They have the evidence.
It will be a shame if the point is deducted and still can't make it because SA will come out with all guns blazing.

[EMIR KONGI JAFFI JOFFA]

...what is fifa waiting? They have the evidence.
It will be a shame if the point is deducted and still can't make it because SA will come out with all guns blazing.

E go us like fim trick if fifa doesn't deduct points.

[mcal]

...what is fifa waiting? They have the evidence.
It will be a shame if the point is deducted and still can't make it because SA will come out with all guns blazing.

E go us like fim trick if fifa doesn't deduct points.

...this is where the oblong head former fa chief suppose to do his work for Nigeria since he is now "global" as he claimed himself.

[Enugu II]

...what is fifa waiting? They have the evidence.
It will be a shame if the point is deducted and still can't make it because SA will come out with all guns blazing.

E go us like fim trick if fifa doesn't deduct points.

Emir

You don come ooo. Do not pray for bad luck and think positively. Wetin go be FIFA's excuse for not acting on a clear rule violation by South Africa?

[Cellular]

Throughout Eguavoen’s brief managership and Jose Peseiro’s run, Nigeria failed to maintain a clean sheet for no more than two consecutive games even against teams decidedly ranked lower.

The above led Jose Peseito to rethink Nigeria’s formation. That singular actr led to an AFCON final but importantly to a four-game run without conceding!

After the 2023 AFCON and the defensive solidity of the team under Peseiro, the team has failed to go more than three games without conceding and the last one was under interim Manager Eguavoen.

While simply looking at goal concession can be deceptive, there are markers that help differentiate at least the recent clean sheet at the last AFCON from the post-Keshi era. At the last AFCON where the team maintained one of its longest clean sheets it was clear that it did not occur by happenstance. After the opening game in the competition, the Manager made a clear decision to use five at the back when the opponent had the ball. The result was a watertight situation where opponents were limited in chances to score and opportunity to put across crosses. In the final where the team gave up surprising two goals it was because a key player – Ola Aina – was injured and was always a foot slower against the Ivorein winger Adingra.

In South Africa, for the World Cup qualifier, Nigeria must consider going back to a formation that clearly limited the opponent from scoring. That would provide a clear advantage to Nigeria. It will not only safeguard a team that is essentially a sieve for opponent goal scoring, but it will give Nigeria, still, opportunity to score.

Prof., Coach Chelle needs to either change personnel, particularly in midfield, or revert back to the 3-5-2 or some variety of it. Have 3 central defenders to deal with crosses, as it has been proven that his team is susceptible to crosses.

[EMIR KONGI JAFFI JOFFA]

People are rearranging the chairs on the Titanic by Moving the same players into different position.

[iworo]

Throughout Eguavoen’s brief managership and Jose Peseiro’s run, Nigeria failed to maintain a clean sheet for no more than two consecutive games even against teams decidedly ranked lower.

The above led Jose Peseito to rethink Nigeria’s formation. That singular actr led to an AFCON final but importantly to a four-game run without conceding!

After the 2023 AFCON and the defensive solidity of the team under Peseiro, the team has failed to go more than three games without conceding and the last one was under interim Manager Eguavoen.

While simply looking at goal concession can be deceptive, there are markers that help differentiate at least the recent clean sheet at the last AFCON from the post-Keshi era. At the last AFCON where the team maintained one of its longest clean sheets it was clear that it did not occur by happenstance. After the opening game in the competition, the Manager made a clear decision to use five at the back when the opponent had the ball. The result was a watertight situation where opponents were limited in chances to score and opportunity to put across crosses. In the final where the team gave up surprising two goals it was because a key player – Ola Aina – was injured and was always a foot slower against the Ivorein winger Adingra.

In South Africa, for the World Cup qualifier, Nigeria must consider going back to a formation that clearly limited the opponent from scoring. That would provide a clear advantage to Nigeria. It will not only safeguard a team that is essentially a sieve for opponent goal scoring, but it will give Nigeria, still, opportunity to score.

Prof., Coach Chelle needs to either change personnel, particularly in midfield, or revert back to the 3-5-2 or some variety of it. Have 3 central defenders to deal with crosses, as it has been proven that his team is susceptible to crosses.

You hit the nail on the head with the above highlighted.

[iworo]

People are rearranging the chairs on the Titanic by Moving the same players into different position.

[Enugu II]

Throughout Eguavoen’s brief managership and Jose Peseiro’s run, Nigeria failed to maintain a clean sheet for no more than two consecutive games even against teams decidedly ranked lower.

The above led Jose Peseito to rethink Nigeria’s formation. That singular actr led to an AFCON final but importantly to a four-game run without conceding!

After the 2023 AFCON and the defensive solidity of the team under Peseiro, the team has failed to go more than three games without conceding and the last one was under interim Manager Eguavoen.

While simply looking at goal concession can be deceptive, there are markers that help differentiate at least the recent clean sheet at the last AFCON from the post-Keshi era. At the last AFCON where the team maintained one of its longest clean sheets it was clear that it did not occur by happenstance. After the opening game in the competition, the Manager made a clear decision to use five at the back when the opponent had the ball. The result was a watertight situation where opponents were limited in chances to score and opportunity to put across crosses. In the final where the team gave up surprising two goals it was because a key player – Ola Aina – was injured and was always a foot slower against the Ivorein winger Adingra.

In South Africa, for the World Cup qualifier, Nigeria must consider going back to a formation that clearly limited the opponent from scoring. That would provide a clear advantage to Nigeria. It will not only safeguard a team that is essentially a sieve for opponent goal scoring, but it will give Nigeria, still, opportunity to score.

Prof., Coach Chelle needs to either change personnel, particularly in midfield, or revert back to the 3-5-2 or some variety of it. Have 3 central defenders to deal with crosses, as it has been proven that his team is susceptible to crosses.

You hit the nail on the head with the above highlighted.

I really believe that this change is critical because Nigeria, with Victor, will score especially via set pieces or crosses. The biggest challenge is how to limit South Africa' opportunities and that is how the 3-5-2 works with use of wing backs and not wing forwards. Additionally, add a twist which is more like a 3-5-1-1. Above all use guys ready to give 110.

The goal is to WIN, if it means being UGLY while doing so.

[icee]

As Nigeria awaits a FIFA decision on South Africa’s use of an ineligible player in a World Cup qualifier, it must prepare for a challenge it faces even after South Africa is duly docked three points from that transgression. That challenge is the realization that it must win in South Africa to get an opportunity to reach the World Cup final where as many as 9 countries will represent the continent.

Manager Eric Chelle...Pragmatism beckons....

Let’s get straight to the issue. What must Nigeria do to win in South Africa? Let’s look at the data first:
Since Nigeria’s credible performances in Gernot Rohr’s first term, Nigeria has been on a visible downward trend except for a short period during the last AFCON tournament in Ivory Coasty. Given this trajectory, it is important then to examine clear markers during each of those trends: (1) Rohr’s second term until the last AFCON; (2) The Last AGFCON, and (3) After the last AFCON. The question is what happened during each of those periods? What are data points that differentiate one period from the other? Eric Chelle, the new Manager, must think about realities and not merely what fans would enjoy on the field.

Rohr had his contract extended in 2020 and the team’s tailspin began around that period with Rohr failing to win any of his first four games after his contract renewal. More telling, however, was the team failing to maintain a clean sheet in more than three consecutive games. Throughout Eguavoen’s brief managership and Jose Peseiro’s run, Nigeria failed to maintain a clean sheet for no more than two consecutive games even against teams decidedly ranked lower.

The above led Jose Peseito to rethink Nigeria’s formation. That singular actr led to an AFCON final but importantly to a four-game run without conceding! The last time Nigeria had gone on a four game or more run without conceding was under Stephen Keshi when the team went six games without conceding on October 11, 2011, in Siasia’s last game through the first five games under Keshi until a 2-3 loss to Egypt in a friendly in Dubai on April 12, 2012.

Chelle must put his thinking cap on.....Nigeria depends on it

After the 2023 AFCON and the defensive solidity of the team under Peseiro, the team has failed to go more than three games without conceding and the last one was under interim Manager Eguavoen.

While simply looking at goal concession can be deceptive, there are markers that help differentiate at least the recent clean sheet at the last AFCON from the post-Keshi era. At the last AFCON where the team maintained one of its longest clean sheets it was clear that it did not occur by happenstance. After the opening game in the competition, the Manager made a clear decision to use five at the back when the opponent had the ball. The result was a watertight situation where opponents were limited in chances to score and opportunity to put across crosses. In the final where the team gave up surprising two goals it was because a key player – Ola Aina – was injured and was always a foot slower against the Ivorein winger Adingra.

In South Africa, for the World Cup qualifier, Nigeria must consider going back to a formation that clearly limited the opponent from scoring. That would provide a clear advantage to Nigeria. It will not only safeguard a team that is essentially a sieve for opponent goal scoring, but it will give Nigeria, still, opportunity to score. Nigeria, after all, has the deadliest attacker in today’s game anywhere the world. With Victor Osimhen, Nigeria is deadly both in the air and on the great whenever in the opponent’s area. All Nigeria must do in South Africa is use a formation that worked wonders at the AFCON to protect against its obvious deficiency while seeking multiple set pieces in opponent’s half to present the half chances that Osimhen thrives on.

Victor Osimhen...The man who may decide Nigeria's fate

In September, barely three months from now, the big contest against south Africa occurs in South African territory with a World Cup qualification on the line. It is up to Manager Chelle. He either plays pretty and crashes out of an opportunity to get to the World Cup or play ugly but effectively to get there.

A very correct write up!. I shared data on how many goals we used to concede b4 Pisero event with very few shots on goal by the opponent. Part of the problem was Uzouho then. Pisero made two critical decisions that set us up for that Afcon final

1. He solved the GK issue - at least to where it is not one shot/one goal

2. Then all that you wrote. I recall Cameroun barely had a shot on goal. Teams had no space to shoot at us, I have been thinking about Pisero's approach and wondering if we should switch to that. It is the safest formation when there's no room for error even if it means Iwobi will be stuffing lanes rather than attacking.

Thanks for this lovely, thoughtful write up

[Kneedeep]

I really believe that this change is critical because Nigeria, with Victor, will score especially via set pieces or crosses. The biggest challenge is how to limit South Africa' opportunities and that is how the 3-5-2 works with use of wing backs and not wing forwards. Additionally, add a twist which is more like a 3-5-1-1. Above all use guys ready to give 110.

The goal is to WIN, if it means being UGLY while doing so.

Novel and interesting idea. Nigeria at the senior level has excelled playing contrary to "free flowing football" and fielding fan faves. Unfortunately the reverse has been the case for age-grade teams and it is stuck in our psyche.

Something we need to do is build teams around who we have not who we wish we had. Messi and Christiano Ronaldo are great but flawed players, yet they have lifted trophies.

[Lolly]

Throughout Eguavoen’s brief managership and Jose Peseiro’s run, Nigeria failed to maintain a clean sheet for no more than two consecutive games even against teams decidedly ranked lower.

The above led Jose Peseito to rethink Nigeria’s formation. That singular actr led to an AFCON final but importantly to a four-game run without conceding!

After the 2023 AFCON and the defensive solidity of the team under Peseiro, the team has failed to go more than three games without conceding and the last one was under interim Manager Eguavoen.

While simply looking at goal concession can be deceptive, there are markers that help differentiate at least the recent clean sheet at the last AFCON from the post-Keshi era. At the last AFCON where the team maintained one of its longest clean sheets it was clear that it did not occur by happenstance. After the opening game in the competition, the Manager made a clear decision to use five at the back when the opponent had the ball. The result was a watertight situation where opponents were limited in chances to score and opportunity to put across crosses. In the final where the team gave up surprising two goals it was because a key player – Ola Aina – was injured and was always a foot slower against the Ivorein winger Adingra.

In South Africa, for the World Cup qualifier, Nigeria must consider going back to a formation that clearly limited the opponent from scoring. That would provide a clear advantage to Nigeria. It will not only safeguard a team that is essentially a sieve for opponent goal scoring, but it will give Nigeria, still, opportunity to score.

Prof., Coach Chelle needs to either change personnel, particularly in midfield, or revert back to the 3-5-2 or some variety of it. Have 3 central defenders to deal with crosses, as it has been proven that his team is susceptible to crosses.

This man sabi bolu.

[Babadee]

To cut story short , if we want to beat South Africa we must work on Set Pieces. Corner kicks , Freekicks. That’s their weakness


Sundowns lost CAf ucl via corner. Over 7-8 players in sundowns are starters for SA

[Lolly]

To cut story short , if we want to beat South Africa we must work on Set Pieces. Corner kicks , Freekicks. That’s their weakness


Sundowns lost CAf ucl via corner. Over 7-8 players in sundowns are starters for SA

The highlighted text is why they are difficult to beat. They are a team who have been together and train together everyday for years.

[mcal]

To cut story short , if we want to beat South Africa we must work on Set Pieces. Corner kicks , Freekicks. That’s their weakness


Sundowns lost CAf ucl via corner. Over 7-8 players in sundowns are starters for SA

The highlighted text is why they are difficult to beat. They are a team who have been together and train together everyday for years.

...and they are all local players, all based in Africa, yet Nigeria will continue to search the european globe looking for players to invite, who will only play (practice) together for 2 days and we expect them to win and win and win matches.
We no serious.

[iworo]

To cut story short , if we want to beat South Africa we must work on Set Pieces. Corner kicks , Freekicks. That’s their weakness


Sundowns lost CAf ucl via corner. Over 7-8 players in sundowns are starters for SA

The highlighted text is why they are difficult to beat. They are a team who have been together and train together everyday for years.

...and they are all local players, all based in Africa, yet Nigeria will continue to search the european globe looking for players to invite, who will only play (practice) together for 2 days and we expect them to win and win and win matches.
We no serious.

The success of SA’s national team, built around a core of local players primarily from Mamelodi Sundowns isn’t simply due to geographical proximity or local camp duration. It’s a testament to the quality of those players. Sundowns have dominated the South African Premier Division for years and are a continental force in the CAF Champions League, regularly reaching the semi-finals and finals. Their players are match-fit, experienced at a high level and play with well established chemistry.

In contrast, Nigeria’s domestic league has struggled to consistently produce teams of similar caliber or achieve sustained success in continental competitions. When Enyimba was at the top of African football, winning back to back CAF Champions League titles in 2003 and 2004, that success translated directly to the national team. Players like Vincent Enyeama and Obinna Nwaneri were home based but elite and it showed.

The debate shouldn’t be framed as “local vs. foreign-based” players. The real issue is the level of competition and readiness our local players are exposed to. If NPFL clubs were performing like Sundowns on the continental stage, there would be a much stronger argument for building a national team around a domestic core.

Again, open your ears, SA’s model works because their local players are genuinely high quality, not merely because they play domestically. Nigeria’s challenge isn't necessarily its reliance on diaspora scouting, but the lack of sustained investment in domestic player development and club infrastructure needed to produce talent at that same level.

[blueangel]

As Nigeria awaits a FIFA decision on South Africa’s use of an ineligible player in a World Cup qualifier, it must prepare for a challenge it faces even after South Africa is duly docked three points from that transgression. That challenge is the realization that it must win in South Africa to get an opportunity to reach the World Cup final where as many as 9 countries will represent the continent.

Manager Eric Chelle...Pragmatism beckons....

Let’s get straight to the issue. What must Nigeria do to win in South Africa? Let’s look at the data first:
Since Nigeria’s credible performances in Gernot Rohr’s first term, Nigeria has been on a visible downward trend except for a short period during the last AFCON tournament in Ivory Coasty. Given this trajectory, it is important then to examine clear markers during each of those trends: (1) Rohr’s second term until the last AFCON; (2) The Last AGFCON, and (3) After the last AFCON. The question is what happened during each of those periods? What are data points that differentiate one period from the other? Eric Chelle, the new Manager, must think about realities and not merely what fans would enjoy on the field.

Rohr had his contract extended in 2020 and the team’s tailspin began around that period with Rohr failing to win any of his first four games after his contract renewal. More telling, however, was the team failing to maintain a clean sheet in more than three consecutive games. Throughout Eguavoen’s brief managership and Jose Peseiro’s run, Nigeria failed to maintain a clean sheet for no more than two consecutive games even against teams decidedly ranked lower.

The above led Jose Peseito to rethink Nigeria’s formation. That singular actr led to an AFCON final but importantly to a four-game run without conceding! The last time Nigeria had gone on a four game or more run without conceding was under Stephen Keshi when the team went six games without conceding on October 11, 2011, in Siasia’s last game through the first five games under Keshi until a 2-3 loss to Egypt in a friendly in Dubai on April 12, 2012.

Chelle must put his thinking cap on.....Nigeria depends on it

After the 2023 AFCON and the defensive solidity of the team under Peseiro, the team has failed to go more than three games without conceding and the last one was under interim Manager Eguavoen.

While simply looking at goal concession can be deceptive, there are markers that help differentiate at least the recent clean sheet at the last AFCON from the post-Keshi era. At the last AFCON where the team maintained one of its longest clean sheets it was clear that it did not occur by happenstance. After the opening game in the competition, the Manager made a clear decision to use five at the back when the opponent had the ball. The result was a watertight situation where opponents were limited in chances to score and opportunity to put across crosses. In the final where the team gave up surprising two goals it was because a key player – Ola Aina – was injured and was always a foot slower against the Ivorein winger Adingra.

In South Africa, for the World Cup qualifier, Nigeria must consider going back to a formation that clearly limited the opponent from scoring. That would provide a clear advantage to Nigeria. It will not only safeguard a team that is essentially a sieve for opponent goal scoring, but it will give Nigeria, still, opportunity to score. Nigeria, after all, has the deadliest attacker in today’s game anywhere the world. With Victor Osimhen, Nigeria is deadly both in the air and on the great whenever in the opponent’s area. All Nigeria must do in South Africa is use a formation that worked wonders at the AFCON to protect against its obvious deficiency while seeking multiple set pieces in opponent’s half to present the half chances that Osimhen thrives on.

Victor Osimhen...The man who may decide Nigeria's fate

In September, barely three months from now, the big contest against south Africa occurs in South African territory with a World Cup qualification on the line. It is up to Manager Chelle. He either plays pretty and crashes out of an opportunity to get to the World Cup or play ugly but effectively to get there.

Thanks for Taking the Time

[mcal]

To cut story short , if we want to beat South Africa we must work on Set Pieces. Corner kicks , Freekicks. That’s their weakness


Sundowns lost CAf ucl via corner. Over 7-8 players in sundowns are starters for SA

The highlighted text is why they are difficult to beat. They are a team who have been together and train together everyday for years.

...and they are all local players, all based in Africa, yet Nigeria will continue to search the european globe looking for players to invite, who will only play (practice) together for 2 days and we expect them to win and win and win matches.
We no serious.

The success of SA’s national team, built around a core of local players primarily from Mamelodi Sundowns isn’t simply due to geographical proximity or local camp duration. It’s a testament to the quality of those players. Sundowns have dominated the South African Premier Division for years and are a continental force in the CAF Champions League, regularly reaching the semi-finals and finals. Their players are match-fit, experienced at a high level and play with well established chemistry.

In contrast, Nigeria’s domestic league has struggled to consistently produce teams of similar caliber or achieve sustained success in continental competitions. When Enyimba was at the top of African football, winning back to back CAF Champions League titles in 2003 and 2004, that success translated directly to the national team. Players like Vincent Enyeama and Obinna Nwaneri were home based but elite and it showed.

The debate shouldn’t be framed as “local vs. foreign-based” players. The real issue is the level of competition and readiness our local players are exposed to. If NPFL clubs were performing like Sundowns on the continental stage, there would be a much stronger argument for building a national team around a domestic core.

Again, open your ears, SA’s model works because their local players are genuinely high quality, not merely because they play domestically. Nigeria’s challenge isn't necessarily its reliance on diaspora scouting, but the lack of sustained investment in domestic player development and club infrastructure needed to produce talent at that same level.

...2 things I will deduce from your write up above, for Nigeria national tam to succeed or start succeeding;

1. a collection of players playing together regularly

2. being match fit, and experience because they play together often and know each other moves, etc

Note, those very important qualities does not exist in the SE.