Probable route for Nigeria
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Re: Probable route for Nigeria
Good question. I think it is the first listed option. However, I wonder if that is actually the correct answer given that one group option is listed two times on that schedule.
The difficulties of statistical thinking describes a puzzling limitation of our mind: our excessive confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent inability to acknowledge the full extent of our ignorance and the uncertainty of the world we live in. We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events -- Daniel Kahneman (2011), Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
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Re: Probable route for Nigeria
I am not discussing the likelihood here, but clarifying how the order works. It seems that as long as Group B makes the cut-off then we face them. I think this is what EII is also questioning above.marutimon wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:28 pmWrong. Read above. The chances Nigeria play Malawi are minimal, unless you get some freak results like Guinea Bissau beating us. Group F is the likely candidate.Tbite wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:17 pmAhhh so the tiebreaker is only for the spots available, irrespective of who the superior side is, it will be the team from Group B, assuming they make the cutoff. So it will be Malawi, even if Gambia are the superior side.
Assuming Malawi makes it. Only in the event that a team from Group B does not even make it, THEN Groups E and F factor in.
Disregard my last post.
In other words....If B = Top 4 then B, else E, if E = top 4, else F?
Buhari, whose two terms thankfully ground to a constitutional halt in May. (One thing both democracies have going for them is that their leaders, however bad, have only two terms to swing the wrecking ball.) Under Buhari, growth per head also plunged to 0. An economic agenda drawn from the dusty pages of a 1970s protectionist handbook failed to do the trick. Despite Buhari’s promise to tame terrorism and criminality, violence flourished. Despite his reputation for probity, corruption swirled. FT
Re: Probable route for Nigeria
But note the orders are different for each team, which means if B is our priority then we get B, if B is available, if E is our 2nd priority then we get E, compared to Cameroon for example.
F is listed in the same order for both Nigeria and Cameroon, but note that one of A/B/E must qualify as only two groups miss out.
For Nigeria not to play Malawi, they have to drop to 5th or 6th in the ranking. Any other position and we play them. If this theory is correct.
Buhari, whose two terms thankfully ground to a constitutional halt in May. (One thing both democracies have going for them is that their leaders, however bad, have only two terms to swing the wrecking ball.) Under Buhari, growth per head also plunged to 0. An economic agenda drawn from the dusty pages of a 1970s protectionist handbook failed to do the trick. Despite Buhari’s promise to tame terrorism and criminality, violence flourished. Despite his reputation for probity, corruption swirled. FT
Re: Probable route for Nigeria
Not necessarily, It's a little confusing. Nigeria would play 3rd place B (Malawi) only if the other 3rd place qualifiers come from A,C and D.
Take a look at the knockout format below, it may give a clearer indication.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Afri ... kout_stage
Zelex-CE World Cup 2010 prediction Winner
http://forum.cybereagles.com/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=177767
http://forum.cybereagles.com/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=177767
Re: Probable route for Nigeria
Ahh I totally ignored that chart lol, I thought it was just a summation of what was below. Thanks for the clarification.Zelex wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:04 pmNot necessarily, It's a little confusing. Nigeria would play 3rd place B (Malawi) only if the other 3rd place qualifiers come from A,C and D.
Take a look at the knockout format below, it may give a clearer indication.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Afri ... kout_stage
That chart is actually not confusing. Ignoring it, however, made it very confusing.
So we have A,B,C,F or A,B,E,F as likely options.
Both options present 3F. Tunisia or Gambia. As the others above were debating.
Malawi then is not really an option....it would take a shock result against Nigeria or against Egypt for that matter.
Buhari, whose two terms thankfully ground to a constitutional halt in May. (One thing both democracies have going for them is that their leaders, however bad, have only two terms to swing the wrecking ball.) Under Buhari, growth per head also plunged to 0. An economic agenda drawn from the dusty pages of a 1970s protectionist handbook failed to do the trick. Despite Buhari’s promise to tame terrorism and criminality, violence flourished. Despite his reputation for probity, corruption swirled. FT
Re: Probable route for Nigeria
Apologies, I didn't see the chart that you were guys were using. Well I saw it and thought nothing of it.marutimon wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:28 pmWrong. Read above. The chances Nigeria play Malawi are minimal, unless you get some freak results like Guinea Bissau beating us. Group F is the likely candidate.Tbite wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:17 pmAhhh so the tiebreaker is only for the spots available, irrespective of who the superior side is, it will be the team from Group B, assuming they make the cutoff. So it will be Malawi, even if Gambia are the superior side.
Assuming Malawi makes it. Only in the event that a team from Group B does not even make it, THEN Groups E and F factor in.
Disregard my last post.
Buhari, whose two terms thankfully ground to a constitutional halt in May. (One thing both democracies have going for them is that their leaders, however bad, have only two terms to swing the wrecking ball.) Under Buhari, growth per head also plunged to 0. An economic agenda drawn from the dusty pages of a 1970s protectionist handbook failed to do the trick. Despite Buhari’s promise to tame terrorism and criminality, violence flourished. Despite his reputation for probity, corruption swirled. FT
Re: Probable route for Nigeria
thanks for posting this. This is the all important key!Zelex wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:04 pmNot necessarily, It's a little confusing. Nigeria would play 3rd place B (Malawi) only if the other 3rd place qualifiers come from A,C and D.
Take a look at the knockout format below, it may give a clearer indication.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Afri ... kout_stage
The difficulties of statistical thinking describes a puzzling limitation of our mind: our excessive confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent inability to acknowledge the full extent of our ignorance and the uncertainty of the world we live in. We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events -- Daniel Kahneman (2011), Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
Re: Probable route for Nigeria
This is my understanding. We are likely to play Malawi.Tbite wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:57 pmBut note the orders are different for each team, which means if B is our priority then we get B, if B is available, if E is our 2nd priority then we get E, compared to Cameroon for example.
F is listed in the same order for both Nigeria and Cameroon, but note that one of A/B/E must qualify as only two groups miss out.
For Nigeria not to play Malawi, they have to drop to 5th or 6th in the ranking. Any other position and we play them. If this theory is correct.
Re: Probable route for Nigeria
I thought when they listed BEF, they meant best amongst the 3 3rd placed teams from these groups. It doesn’t mean order of priority.
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Re: Probable route for Nigeria
I don’t think this assumption is correct.Tbite wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:17 pmAhhh so the tiebreaker is only for the spots available, irrespective of who the superior side is, it will be the team from Group B, assuming they make the cutoff. So it will be Malawi, even if Gambia are the superior side.
Assuming Malawi makes it. Only in the event that a team from Group B does not even make it, THEN Groups E and F factor in.
Disregard my last post.
"Learn from others whom have walked the path before you, but be smart enough to know when to cut your own trail."
Re: Probable route for Nigeria
Thanks for this. It's more likely we play 3rd placed from Group E or F. I can't see any of the 3 placed qualifiers coming from our group (D).Zelex wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:04 pmNot necessarily, It's a little confusing. Nigeria would play 3rd place B (Malawi) only if the other 3rd place qualifiers come from A,C and D.
Take a look at the knockout format below, it may give a clearer indication.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Afri ... kout_stage
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Re: Probable route for Nigeria
See the posts above.Cito wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:32 pmI don’t think this assumption is correct.Tbite wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:17 pmAhhh so the tiebreaker is only for the spots available, irrespective of who the superior side is, it will be the team from Group B, assuming they make the cutoff. So it will be Malawi, even if Gambia are the superior side.
Assuming Malawi makes it. Only in the event that a team from Group B does not even make it, THEN Groups E and F factor in.
Disregard my last post.
Buhari, whose two terms thankfully ground to a constitutional halt in May. (One thing both democracies have going for them is that their leaders, however bad, have only two terms to swing the wrecking ball.) Under Buhari, growth per head also plunged to 0. An economic agenda drawn from the dusty pages of a 1970s protectionist handbook failed to do the trick. Despite Buhari’s promise to tame terrorism and criminality, violence flourished. Despite his reputation for probity, corruption swirled. FT
Re: Probable route for Nigeria
No I was wrong, see what Zelex posted.aruako1 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:27 pmThis is my understanding. We are likely to play Malawi.Tbite wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:57 pmBut note the orders are different for each team, which means if B is our priority then we get B, if B is available, if E is our 2nd priority then we get E, compared to Cameroon for example.
F is listed in the same order for both Nigeria and Cameroon, but note that one of A/B/E must qualify as only two groups miss out.
For Nigeria not to play Malawi, they have to drop to 5th or 6th in the ranking. Any other position and we play them. If this theory is correct.
Buhari, whose two terms thankfully ground to a constitutional halt in May. (One thing both democracies have going for them is that their leaders, however bad, have only two terms to swing the wrecking ball.) Under Buhari, growth per head also plunged to 0. An economic agenda drawn from the dusty pages of a 1970s protectionist handbook failed to do the trick. Despite Buhari’s promise to tame terrorism and criminality, violence flourished. Despite his reputation for probity, corruption swirled. FT
Re: Probable route for Nigeria
My prediction is third place teams ABEF make it. I assume the third place team from Nigeria's group fails to advance. This makes it easier to predict match ups. Just a prediction.
This will help narrow the options from that table to one. LOL.
This will help narrow the options from that table to one. LOL.
The difficulties of statistical thinking describes a puzzling limitation of our mind: our excessive confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent inability to acknowledge the full extent of our ignorance and the uncertainty of the world we live in. We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events -- Daniel Kahneman (2011), Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
Re: Probable route for Nigeria
Yes o. It was helpful. It seems like as long as one of the four best 3rd place finishers is from Group F, we are playing that team.Enugu II wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:25 pmthanks for posting this. This is the all important key!Zelex wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:04 pmNot necessarily, It's a little confusing. Nigeria would play 3rd place B (Malawi) only if the other 3rd place qualifiers come from A,C and D.
Take a look at the knockout format below, it may give a clearer indication.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Afri ... kout_stage
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Re: Probable route for Nigeria
This is a hilarious thread.
I’d hate to see you all try and do a bit of calculus.
I’d hate to see you all try and do a bit of calculus.
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Re: Probable route for Nigeria
Isn't it likely we may play CIV or Algeria I'd one of them finish third ? They are group E.
That would not be a reward for topping our group.
That would not be a reward for topping our group.
Re: Probable route for Nigeria
If our SE is good enough we should not be hoping for any soft opponent.
Gambia or Malawi will pose our SE a stiffer opposition than Tunisia. If anyone
thinks either of the former two names are going to be push overs, they are in
for a serious heartache.
We keep bragging about our team, forgetting that for many teams, humbling the
SE is an agenda to boost their pride, and they will come determined.
Please guys, which of us would have thought Ghana will be humbled by Comoros
in a do or die matchup? Thus, it's reality check time for every 'BIG' team.
Gambia or Malawi will pose our SE a stiffer opposition than Tunisia. If anyone
thinks either of the former two names are going to be push overs, they are in
for a serious heartache.
We keep bragging about our team, forgetting that for many teams, humbling the
SE is an agenda to boost their pride, and they will come determined.
Please guys, which of us would have thought Ghana will be humbled by Comoros
in a do or die matchup? Thus, it's reality check time for every 'BIG' team.
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governments destroy freedom, the press destroys information, religion destroys morals, and our banks destroy the economy.”
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Re: Probable route for Nigeria
Nope. That only happens if no one from Group F is one of the 3rd best teams or Malawi isn't a 3rd best team (despite having 4 pts).vancity eagle wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:05 pm Isn't it likely we may play CIV or Algeria I'd one of them finish third ? They are group E.
That would not be a reward for topping our group.
And for that to happen you need freak results like Tunisia losing by more than 4 goals to Gambia or Guinea Bissau beating Nigeria...
Re: Probable route for Nigeria
Thanks!Tbite wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:40 pmNo I was wrong, see what Zelex posted.aruako1 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:27 pmThis is my understanding. We are likely to play Malawi.Tbite wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:57 pmBut note the orders are different for each team, which means if B is our priority then we get B, if B is available, if E is our 2nd priority then we get E, compared to Cameroon for example.
F is listed in the same order for both Nigeria and Cameroon, but note that one of A/B/E must qualify as only two groups miss out.
For Nigeria not to play Malawi, they have to drop to 5th or 6th in the ranking. Any other position and we play them. If this theory is correct.
Re: Probable route for Nigeria
Most likely Gambia.
Tunisia most likely winning against Gambia.
Tunisia needs to win to get through, while Gambia can afford to lose.
Tunisia most likely winning against Gambia.
Tunisia needs to win to get through, while Gambia can afford to lose.
Re: Probable route for Nigeria
and how would you do the calculation with half information?
Based on the information that some of us had, the assumptions made sense. Even words such as 'theory' were used. But hey whatever gets you going.
Buhari, whose two terms thankfully ground to a constitutional halt in May. (One thing both democracies have going for them is that their leaders, however bad, have only two terms to swing the wrecking ball.) Under Buhari, growth per head also plunged to 0. An economic agenda drawn from the dusty pages of a 1970s protectionist handbook failed to do the trick. Despite Buhari’s promise to tame terrorism and criminality, violence flourished. Despite his reputation for probity, corruption swirled. FT
Re: Probable route for Nigeria
No surprise results, so basically unless Tunisia loses by at least 6 goals against Gambia, we're playing Tunisia / Gambia in the 1/8 final.
So it's 99,99% set.
So it's 99,99% set.