FIFA approves 48 team World Cup for 2026 (updated)
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Re: FIFA approves 48 team World Cup for 2026 (updated)
If all 41 qualify, only 6 more spots apart from host nation will remain to compete for.muzines wrote:Concacaf has the most to gain in this scenario. I think almost all the Concacaf countries will qualify for the WC. They need to take one spot from them and increase Africa to 10.
Re: 48 team world cup with 16 groups of 3 teams- AFP
You are correct. Penalty kicks is one of the options to be considered but nothing is confirmed yet.metalalloy wrote:@folem i no even see dat one.
Thanks. Is that confirmed anywhere? last i read, the rules have not been determined yet.Tunisian Gooner wrote:
There are no draws, it's winner take all, 3 points for winner of PK and nothing for the loser, if tied 1-1 after 90 minutes victor of the PK wins the game 2-1 and adds that to their GD.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/10/spor ... .html?_r=0And Infantino said specific competition rules — such as a potential introduction of penalty shootouts to break ties in the group stage — would be determined in the years before the tournament.
Re: FIFA approves 48 team World Cup for 2026 (updated)
This is all about money,nothing to do with football, just about more money...nonsense!
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Re: FIFA approves 48 team World Cup for 2026 (updated)
Only under the premise that European teams are not generally stronger than non-European teams. Only should keep in mind though that currently 2nd round means being among the best 16 teams, but in 2026 second round means being among the best 32 teams.folem wrote:You must be joking.Enugu II wrote:LOL. It reduces the probability of European countries getting to the second round from close to 50% to about 33%!!Molue Conductor wrote:Europe have the most to gain.
They don't have to compete against each other in the group stages.
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Re: FIFA approves 48 team World Cup for 2026 (updated)
kofi86,kofi86 wrote:Only under the premise that European teams are not generally stronger than non-European teams. Only should keep in mind though that currently 2nd round means being among the best 16 teams, but in 2026 second round means being among the best 32 teams.folem wrote:You must be joking.Enugu II wrote:LOL. It reduces the probability of European countries getting to the second round from close to 50% to about 33%!!Molue Conductor wrote:Europe have the most to gain.
They don't have to compete against each other in the group stages.
It is simple math based on proportion. The probability of UEFA teams getting to the next round has fallen with what we know currently about allocation in a 48-team structure especially if FIFA keeps its principle of separating teams from the same confederation. Of course, that does not account for reality or actual team strength but assumes that all teams are basically same strength-wise.
However, it is a math worth recalling because there is an illogical argument out there claiming that places should be awarded based on how many teams from a confederation get to the next round. A serious illogic when one considers that using proportion and probability that some confederations have in-built advantages before the first ball is ever kicked.
The difficulties of statistical thinking describes a puzzling limitation of our mind: our excessive confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent inability to acknowledge the full extent of our ignorance and the uncertainty of the world we live in. We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events -- Daniel Kahneman (2011), Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
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Re: FIFA approves 48 team World Cup for 2026 (updated)
Correct European penal code four wine nine.Enugu II wrote:kofi86,kofi86 wrote:Only under the premise that European teams are not generally stronger than non-European teams. Only should keep in mind though that currently 2nd round means being among the best 16 teams, but in 2026 second round means being among the best 32 teams.folem wrote:You must be joking.Enugu II wrote:LOL. It reduces the probability of European countries getting to the second round from close to 50% to about 33%!!Molue Conductor wrote:Europe have the most to gain.
They don't have to compete against each other in the group stages.
It is simple math based on proportion. The probability of UEFA teams getting to the next round has fallen with what we know currently about allocation in a 48-team structure especially if FIFA keeps its principle of separating teams from the same confederation. Of course, that does not account for reality or actual team strength but assumes that all teams are basically same strength-wise.
However, it is a math worth recalling because there is an illogical argument out there claiming that places should be awarded based on how many teams from a confederation get to the next round. A serious illogic when one considers that using proportion and probability that some confederations have in-built advantages before the first ball is ever kicked.
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Re: FIFA approves 48 team World Cup for 2026 (updated)
European domination in the worldcup is about to reduce..16 teams will be seeded, hopefully some African teams will get seeded
IF they make the mistake of grouping 2 African teams in the same group i expect loads of African teams to make round 2
IF they make the mistake of grouping 2 African teams in the same group i expect loads of African teams to make round 2
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Re: FIFA approves 48 team World Cup for 2026 (updated)
It is not that simple when your math is incorrect.Enugu II wrote:kofi86,kofi86 wrote:Only under the premise that European teams are not generally stronger than non-European teams. Only should keep in mind though that currently 2nd round means being among the best 16 teams, but in 2026 second round means being among the best 32 teams.folem wrote:You must be joking.Enugu II wrote:LOL. It reduces the probability of European countries getting to the second round from close to 50% to about 33%!!Molue Conductor wrote:Europe have the most to gain.
They don't have to compete against each other in the group stages.
It is simple math based on proportion. The probability of UEFA teams getting to the next round has fallen with what we know currently about allocation in a 48-team structure especially if FIFA keeps its principle of separating teams from the same confederation. Of course, that does not account for reality or actual team strength but assumes that all teams are basically same strength-wise.
However, it is a math worth recalling because there is an illogical argument out there claiming that places should be awarded based on how many teams from a confederation get to the next round. A serious illogic when one considers that using proportion and probability that some confederations have in-built advantages before the first ball is ever kicked.
Re: FIFA approves 48 team World Cup for 2026 (updated)
folem,folem wrote:It is not that simple when your math is incorrect.Enugu II wrote:kofi86,kofi86 wrote:Only under the premise that European teams are not generally stronger than non-European teams. Only should keep in mind though that currently 2nd round means being among the best 16 teams, but in 2026 second round means being among the best 32 teams.folem wrote:You must be joking.Enugu II wrote:LOL. It reduces the probability of European countries getting to the second round from close to 50% to about 33%!!Molue Conductor wrote:Europe have the most to gain.
They don't have to compete against each other in the group stages.
It is simple math based on proportion. The probability of UEFA teams getting to the next round has fallen with what we know currently about allocation in a 48-team structure especially if FIFA keeps its principle of separating teams from the same confederation. Of course, that does not account for reality or actual team strength but assumes that all teams are basically same strength-wise.
However, it is a math worth recalling because there is an illogical argument out there claiming that places should be awarded based on how many teams from a confederation get to the next round. A serious illogic when one considers that using proportion and probability that some confederations have in-built advantages before the first ball is ever kicked.
Well, why don't you do your own calculation and add the complexities that you believe are missing. I await the result.
The difficulties of statistical thinking describes a puzzling limitation of our mind: our excessive confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent inability to acknowledge the full extent of our ignorance and the uncertainty of the world we live in. We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events -- Daniel Kahneman (2011), Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
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Re: FIFA approves 48 team World Cup for 2026 (updated)
Bigpokey24 wrote:European domination in the worldcup is about to reduce..16 teams will be seeded, hopefully some African teams will get seeded
IF they make the mistake of grouping 2 African teams in the same group i expect loads of African teams to make round 2
Bigpokey,
I doubt that 2 African teams will be in a group if indeed the preliminary groups number 16. If we go by the past, it will be one in a group. The good thing is that UEFA will also likely have one in a group unlike the past where they had mostly two in a single group.
The difficulties of statistical thinking describes a puzzling limitation of our mind: our excessive confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent inability to acknowledge the full extent of our ignorance and the uncertainty of the world we live in. We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events -- Daniel Kahneman (2011), Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
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Re: FIFA approves 48 team World Cup for 2026 (updated)
folem wrote:If all 41 qualify, only 6 more spots apart from host nation will remain to compete for.muzines wrote:Concacaf has the most to gain in this scenario. I think almost all the Concacaf countries will qualify for the WC. They need to take one spot from them and increase Africa to 10.
We have been brainwashed by the Premier League that it's the best in the world. Nonsense. It's the best brand
Roy Keane: ITV 02/25/14
He says that we are currently "brainwashed" into believing that the Premier League is the best competition in the world, and that we are now a long way off dominating the Champions League again.
Gary Neville: Mirror: 12/23/14
I think Spain’s by far the best league.
Scholes. UK Guardian 9/6/16
Roy Keane: ITV 02/25/14
He says that we are currently "brainwashed" into believing that the Premier League is the best competition in the world, and that we are now a long way off dominating the Champions League again.
Gary Neville: Mirror: 12/23/14
I think Spain’s by far the best league.
Scholes. UK Guardian 9/6/16
Re: FIFA approves 48 team World Cup for 2026 (updated)
Making it theoretically possible for all 16 European teams to qualify for the second round.Enugu II wrote:Bigpokey24 wrote:European domination in the worldcup is about to reduce..16 teams will be seeded, hopefully some African teams will get seeded
IF they make the mistake of grouping 2 African teams in the same group i expect loads of African teams to make round 2
Bigpokey,
I doubt that 2 African teams will be in a group if indeed the preliminary groups number 16. If we go by the past, it will be one in a group. The good thing is that UEFA will also likely have one in a group unlike the past where they had mostly two in a single group.
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Re: FIFA approves 48 team World Cup for 2026 (updated)
You are a huge angel*. I bet St. John and St. Martin are path of the list of teams, right. There are only about 10 credible teams in CONCACAF. The rest are fillers and even the Faroe Islands will trash half of the CONCACAF teams.folem wrote:If all 41 qualify, only 6 more spots apart from host nation will remain to compete for.muzines wrote:Concacaf has the most to gain in this scenario. I think almost all the Concacaf countries will qualify for the WC. They need to take one spot from them and increase Africa to 10.
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Re: FIFA approves 48 team World Cup for 2026 (updated)
Or African teams could meet each other and go pass the q finalsfolem wrote:Making it theoretically possible for all 16 European teams to qualify for the second round.Enugu II wrote:Bigpokey24 wrote:European domination in the worldcup is about to reduce..16 teams will be seeded, hopefully some African teams will get seeded
IF they make the mistake of grouping 2 African teams in the same group i expect loads of African teams to make round 2
Bigpokey,
I doubt that 2 African teams will be in a group if indeed the preliminary groups number 16. If we go by the past, it will be one in a group. The good thing is that UEFA will also likely have one in a group unlike the past where they had mostly two in a single group.
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Re: FIFA approves 48 team World Cup for 2026 (updated)
Folem,folem wrote:Making it theoretically possible for all 16 European teams to qualify for the second round.Enugu II wrote:Bigpokey24 wrote:European domination in the worldcup is about to reduce..16 teams will be seeded, hopefully some African teams will get seeded
IF they make the mistake of grouping 2 African teams in the same group i expect loads of African teams to make round 2
Bigpokey,
I doubt that 2 African teams will be in a group if indeed the preliminary groups number 16. If we go by the past, it will be one in a group. The good thing is that UEFA will also likely have one in a group unlike the past where they had mostly two in a single group.
Great math of probability, right Very funny.
The difficulties of statistical thinking describes a puzzling limitation of our mind: our excessive confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent inability to acknowledge the full extent of our ignorance and the uncertainty of the world we live in. We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events -- Daniel Kahneman (2011), Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
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Re: FIFA approves 48 team World Cup for 2026 (updated)
How FIFA’s World Cup expansion may make the games more global than ever
http://www.csmonitor.com/The-Culture/20 ... -than-ever
David Iaconangelo
Staff | @diaconangelo
JANUARY 11, 2017 —FIFA’s governing council voted unanimously on Tuesday to expand World Cup competition from 32 teams to 48, the first change to the Cup’s structure since 1998.
The change, which is set to go into effect in 2026, will split the first round of competition into 16 groups of three teams each, with two out of the three countries advancing to the knockout contests. Eighty matches will be played instead of the current 64.
The league expects the expansion to generate an extra $1 billion in revenue from broadcasting, ticket sales, and sponsorships.
Just where the extra spots will go – which federations and from which part of the world – hasn’t been announced yet. Many expect them to benefit countries in Africa and Asia that were shut out of the competition until the mid-1970s, and still tend to appear on the global stage more fleetingly than the traditional European and South American powerhouses.
The disparity carries the geopolitical overtones of that earlier period, particularly in Africa, where nations were just starting to emerge from under European colonialism. But FIFA’s latest vote illuminates how the council’s internal politics, combined with the organization’s profit motive, may be destined to push the biggest tournament of the “universal game” toward greater inclusivity.
“The continent that really benefits, and has really suffered the most from the Europeans, is Africa,” says Kirk Bowman, a professor in soccer and global politics at the Georgia Institute of Technology.
With the formation of the African Football Confederation (CAF) in 1957, African nations began to contest what was then a rigidly Eurocentric FIFA; in 1966, several of them boycotted the Cup after Africa and Asia were offered a single combined slot.
The turning point came in 1974, with the ascent of Brazilian businessman Joao Havelange to the head of FIFA after persuading African and Asian electors – FIFA’s council operates on a “one nation, one vote” principle – with a charm offensive that underscored ethnic and sociopolitical commonalities between South America and Africa, and called for FIFA to invest in sports infrastructure and development in the Third World, according to an essay by University of Ulster sports sociologist Paul Darby.
Since then, African soccer has blossomed. And that’s been good for FIFA, especially through sponsorships and advertising, says Agbenyega Adedze, an Illinois State University professor of history who has written about intersections of soccer and politics in Africa.
“If you look at ads in African countries, there are African players selling beer, selling cars, et cetera,” he tells The Christian Science Monitor. “Everything stops for the World Cup, in African countries.”
“Giving more opportunities to African teams, they’ll prevail. You saw the performance of Africans in World Cups in previous years,” he adds.
Their appearance is part of the legacy of Mr. Havelange, who expanded the tournament from 16 teams to 32 – a move that won him support from the organization’s non-European electors.
Some believe FIFA’s current president, Gianni Infantino, is trying a similar gambit.
“I think it’s primarily about Infantino preparing for a second and third term,” Dr. Bowman tells the Monitor. “He’s trying to get votes from all those small islands of the Caribbean. Those are the places that turn the election.”
The powerhouses from Europe and South America aren’t all so happy with the new arrangement: European clubs, because they train and pay the bulk of salaries for the top World Cup players; and South America, because the continent’s bottom-tier teams are often more competitive than top-tier teams from other regions.
"If [African and Asian countries] can generate another billion dollars off human capital provided by European teams, then they’re getting a big win," he says. "But I think it's all much more about power itself."
This report contains material from Reuters.
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Re: FIFA approves 48 team World Cup for 2026 (updated)
All things being equal, yes. but all things aren't equal. i have posted it before and will post it again when i have time the European and south american team consistently beat teams from other federations. most of their losses come when they play against each other.Enugu II wrote:LOL. It reduces the probability of European countries getting to the second round from close to 50% to about 33%!!Molue Conductor wrote:Europe have the most to gain.
They don't have to compete against each other in the group stages.
Last edited by Molue Conductor on Fri Jan 13, 2017 12:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: FIFA approves 48 team World Cup for 2026 (updated)
13/32 or 16/48 can still lead to all UEFA teams making the second round.Molue Conductor wrote:All things being equal, yes. but all things aren't equal. i have posted it before and will post it again when i have time the European and south american team consistently beat teams from other federations. most of their losses come when they play against each other.Enugu II wrote:LOL. It reduces the probability of European countries getting to the second round from close to 50% to about 33%!!Molue Conductor wrote:Europe have the most to gain.
They don't have to compete against each other in the group stages.
Re: FIFA approves 48 team World Cup for 2026 (updated)
We do know that all things are not always equal but we can still predict based on proportion. Also note that not all European teams are on the same level thus it is also very unlikely that all 16 will ever go through. To say that they only fail when they play each other says little because in the previous structure they had to play each other most of the time based on their number and the number of groups. That certainly will be different from 2026.Molue Conductor wrote:All things being equal, yes. but all things aren't equal. i have posted it before and will post it again when i have time the European and south american team consistently beat teams from other federations. most of their losses come when they play against each other.Enugu II wrote:LOL. It reduces the probability of European countries getting to the second round from close to 50% to about 33%!!Molue Conductor wrote:Europe have the most to gain.
They don't have to compete against each other in the group stages.
Last edited by Enugu II on Mon Jan 16, 2017 2:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
The difficulties of statistical thinking describes a puzzling limitation of our mind: our excessive confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent inability to acknowledge the full extent of our ignorance and the uncertainty of the world we live in. We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events -- Daniel Kahneman (2011), Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
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Re: FIFA approves 48 team World Cup for 2026 (updated)
48 teams is not an issue in the long run.
It is only an issue in the short term. I don't know why we act like underperforming countries never transform and they only fail to deliver.
No matter how mediocre Africa has been, the reality is that Africa will most likely become more economically competitive in the not so distant future. There is precedent. Some countries in Asia were far more mediocre than their African counterparts not too long ago. Let us not underestimate how quickly change can occur! It can even occur in OUR lifetimes.
The reality is that in the world today there are more than 50 teams that are either of a high standard or are SUPPOSED to be of a high standard. So the reality is that eventually not only could a 48 World Cup not be watered down, it could realistically even be stronger than any World Cup we have ever seen.
This is not a pipe dream, it just requires a bit of patience.
And as far as Asia goes, well Asia actually has the economic capacity to do great things right now, they just need a bit of time to build up the game. Let us stop being so impatient. There is a far bigger chance in my opinion that football in Asia and Africa will strengthen than remain stagnant. In fact I would put my mortgage on it! It just depends on how long we can bear it. I say that within the next 15-25 years we will begin to see some improvement.
I am not worried if the quality goes down in the short term, sometimes to grow you need to backtrack.
It is only an issue in the short term. I don't know why we act like underperforming countries never transform and they only fail to deliver.
No matter how mediocre Africa has been, the reality is that Africa will most likely become more economically competitive in the not so distant future. There is precedent. Some countries in Asia were far more mediocre than their African counterparts not too long ago. Let us not underestimate how quickly change can occur! It can even occur in OUR lifetimes.
The reality is that in the world today there are more than 50 teams that are either of a high standard or are SUPPOSED to be of a high standard. So the reality is that eventually not only could a 48 World Cup not be watered down, it could realistically even be stronger than any World Cup we have ever seen.
This is not a pipe dream, it just requires a bit of patience.
And as far as Asia goes, well Asia actually has the economic capacity to do great things right now, they just need a bit of time to build up the game. Let us stop being so impatient. There is a far bigger chance in my opinion that football in Asia and Africa will strengthen than remain stagnant. In fact I would put my mortgage on it! It just depends on how long we can bear it. I say that within the next 15-25 years we will begin to see some improvement.
I am not worried if the quality goes down in the short term, sometimes to grow you need to backtrack.
Buhari, whose two terms thankfully ground to a constitutional halt in May. (One thing both democracies have going for them is that their leaders, however bad, have only two terms to swing the wrecking ball.) Under Buhari, growth per head also plunged to 0. An economic agenda drawn from the dusty pages of a 1970s protectionist handbook failed to do the trick. Despite Buhari’s promise to tame terrorism and criminality, violence flourished. Despite his reputation for probity, corruption swirled. FT
Re: FIFA approves 48 team World Cup for 2026 (updated)
South America has nearly all there teams make it to the next round and they have 4.5 places.folem wrote:13/32 or 16/48 can still lead to all UEFA teams making the second round.Molue Conductor wrote:All things being equal, yes. but all things aren't equal. i have posted it before and will post it again when i have time the European and south american team consistently beat teams from other federations. most of their losses come when they play against each other.Enugu II wrote:LOL. It reduces the probability of European countries getting to the second round from close to 50% to about 33%!!Molue Conductor wrote:Europe have the most to gain.
They don't have to compete against each other in the group stages.
Re: FIFA approves 48 team World Cup for 2026 (updated)
KPOM. Well stated. It is an error to think that it is the best 32 teams in the world that currently make it to the World Cup of 32 teams. It isn't. Rather it is the best teams in each confederation which is different from the best teams in the world. For instance, one can argue that the #10 to #13 team in Europe may not be better than the #6 or #7 from Conmebol or the #6 and #7 team from CAF that currently fail to make it to a 32-team World Cup. Thus, expansion does not automatically mean a watered down World Cup.Tbite wrote:48 teams is not an issue in the long run.
It is only an issue in the short term. I don't know why we act like underperforming countries never transform and they only fail to deliver.
No matter how mediocre Africa has been, the reality is that Africa will most likely become more economically competitive in the not so distant future. There is precedent. Some countries in Asia were far more mediocre than their African counterparts not too long ago. Let us not underestimate how quickly change can occur! It can even occur in OUR lifetimes.
The reality is that in the world today there are more than 50 teams that are either of a high standard or are SUPPOSED to be of a high standard. So the reality is that eventually not only could a 48 World Cup not be watered down, it could realistically even be stronger than any World Cup we have ever seen.
This is not a pipe dream, it just requires a bit of patience.
And as far as Asia goes, well Asia actually has the economic capacity to do great things right now, they just need a bit of time to build up the game. Let us stop being so impatient. There is a far bigger chance in my opinion that football in Asia and Africa will strengthen than remain stagnant. In fact I would put my mortgage on it! It just depends on how long we can bear it. I say that within the next 15-25 years we will begin to see some improvement.
I am not worried if the quality goes down in the short term, sometimes to grow you need to backtrack.
Last edited by Enugu II on Mon Jan 16, 2017 11:29 pm, edited 2 times in total.
The difficulties of statistical thinking describes a puzzling limitation of our mind: our excessive confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent inability to acknowledge the full extent of our ignorance and the uncertainty of the world we live in. We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events -- Daniel Kahneman (2011), Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
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Re: FIFA approves 48 team World Cup for 2026 (updated)
They should do away with qualifiers entirely. Invite 200 countries and be done with it.
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