Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse

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peppersoup
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Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse

Post by peppersoup »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... lapse.html


The world may still be reeling from last night’s World Cup semi-Final between Germany and Brazil, but none more so than Nate Silver the celebrated statistician behind the fivethiryeight blog. Silver had pegged Brazil as the favourites to win the cup and stated their chances of success against Germany last night at 65%.

Silver shot to prominence during the 2008 presidential elections when writing, initially under the pseudonym Poblano on the blog Daily Kos, before transferring to his own site in partnership with the New York Times in 2008. Since then he has gained public recognition for his PECOTA system which forecasted the performances and career developments for major league baseball players.

Throughout the game the 538 Twitter account, now aligned with sports broadcaster ESPN, was tweeting facts, figures and other statistics defending its position.

At 9.52pm, with two of Brazil’s top players out, Silver reassured the world that ‘the players replacing Neymar are going to be well above average.

'Following the 10.26 tweet of ‘OMG’ Silver came back with ‘According to @espn's SPI, which our model uses, odds of #GER scoring 5+ goals was 0.7%. A 5-0 final score? 1-in-1250. (via @ESPNStatsInfo)’
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Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse

Post by femibyte »

Dude, Nate Silver predicted 65% probabiltyfor Brazil to win the World Cup, which meant that there was a 35% chance they wouldn't. How this equates to a failure by Nate Silver beats me...
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Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse

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femibyte wrote:Dude, Nate Silver predicted 65% probabiltyfor Brazil to win the World Cup, which meant that there was a 35% chance they wouldn't. How this equates to a failure by Nate Silver beats me...
According to CE logic, a 65% probability equates to 100% as long as:
1. It fits their logic
2. They want to be right
3. They chose to ignore the obvious due to #1 above.
"Learn from others whom have walked the path before you, but be smart enough to know when to cut your own trail."
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Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse

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femibyte wrote:Dude, Nate Silver predicted 65% probabiltyfor Brazil to win the World Cup, which meant that there was a 35% chance they wouldn't. How this equates to a failure by Nate Silver beats me...
dude hush... bottom line is i warned you suare will be sold, instead nah lambert and lalana una buy :lol:
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Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse

Post by nanijoe »

Nate Silver is pants at predicting soccer...and football for that matter. These games are subject to such randomness that only FIFA and the NFL execs can influence, err..predict who wins championships

femibyte wrote:Dude, Nate Silver predicted 65% probabiltyfor Brazil to win the World Cup, which meant that there was a 35% chance they wouldn't. How this equates to a failure by Nate Silver beats me...
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Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse

Post by femibyte »

Bigpokey24 wrote:
femibyte wrote:Dude, Nate Silver predicted 65% probabiltyfor Brazil to win the World Cup, which meant that there was a 35% chance they wouldn't. How this equates to a failure by Nate Silver beats me...
dude hush... bottom line is i warned you suare will be sold, instead nah lambert and lalana una buy :lol:
BP getting ahead of himself as usual.
The transfer window isn't shut yet, and the season hasn't started. Yet hear you go yarning opaks. Ok, Chelski's gonna win the title, with Mikel leading the way as captain. Happy now ? :roll: :roll:
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Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse

Post by tfco »

what does the thread title mean?

:? :?

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Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse

Post by Coach »

^Diaris God o!
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Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse

Post by tfco »

^ mugu where dey your False 9 analysis?

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Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse

Post by Bigpokey24 »

femibyte wrote:
Bigpokey24 wrote:
femibyte wrote:Dude, Nate Silver predicted 65% probabiltyfor Brazil to win the World Cup, which meant that there was a 35% chance they wouldn't. How this equates to a failure by Nate Silver beats me...
dude hush... bottom line is i warned you suare will be sold, instead nah lambert and lalana una buy :lol:
BP getting ahead of himself as usual.
The transfer window isn't shut yet, and the season hasn't started. Yet hear you go yarning opaks. Ok, Chelski's gonna win the title, with Mikel leading the way as captain. Happy now ? :roll: :roll:
How far with suare
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