Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse
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Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... lapse.html
The world may still be reeling from last night’s World Cup semi-Final between Germany and Brazil, but none more so than Nate Silver the celebrated statistician behind the fivethiryeight blog. Silver had pegged Brazil as the favourites to win the cup and stated their chances of success against Germany last night at 65%.
Silver shot to prominence during the 2008 presidential elections when writing, initially under the pseudonym Poblano on the blog Daily Kos, before transferring to his own site in partnership with the New York Times in 2008. Since then he has gained public recognition for his PECOTA system which forecasted the performances and career developments for major league baseball players.
Throughout the game the 538 Twitter account, now aligned with sports broadcaster ESPN, was tweeting facts, figures and other statistics defending its position.
At 9.52pm, with two of Brazil’s top players out, Silver reassured the world that ‘the players replacing Neymar are going to be well above average.
'Following the 10.26 tweet of ‘OMG’ Silver came back with ‘According to @espn's SPI, which our model uses, odds of #GER scoring 5+ goals was 0.7%. A 5-0 final score? 1-in-1250. (via @ESPNStatsInfo)’
The world may still be reeling from last night’s World Cup semi-Final between Germany and Brazil, but none more so than Nate Silver the celebrated statistician behind the fivethiryeight blog. Silver had pegged Brazil as the favourites to win the cup and stated their chances of success against Germany last night at 65%.
Silver shot to prominence during the 2008 presidential elections when writing, initially under the pseudonym Poblano on the blog Daily Kos, before transferring to his own site in partnership with the New York Times in 2008. Since then he has gained public recognition for his PECOTA system which forecasted the performances and career developments for major league baseball players.
Throughout the game the 538 Twitter account, now aligned with sports broadcaster ESPN, was tweeting facts, figures and other statistics defending its position.
At 9.52pm, with two of Brazil’s top players out, Silver reassured the world that ‘the players replacing Neymar are going to be well above average.
'Following the 10.26 tweet of ‘OMG’ Silver came back with ‘According to @espn's SPI, which our model uses, odds of #GER scoring 5+ goals was 0.7%. A 5-0 final score? 1-in-1250. (via @ESPNStatsInfo)’
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Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse
Dude, Nate Silver predicted 65% probabiltyfor Brazil to win the World Cup, which meant that there was a 35% chance they wouldn't. How this equates to a failure by Nate Silver beats me...
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Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse
According to CE logic, a 65% probability equates to 100% as long as:femibyte wrote:Dude, Nate Silver predicted 65% probabiltyfor Brazil to win the World Cup, which meant that there was a 35% chance they wouldn't. How this equates to a failure by Nate Silver beats me...
1. It fits their logic
2. They want to be right
3. They chose to ignore the obvious due to #1 above.
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Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse
dude hush... bottom line is i warned you suare will be sold, instead nah lambert and lalana una buyfemibyte wrote:Dude, Nate Silver predicted 65% probabiltyfor Brazil to win the World Cup, which meant that there was a 35% chance they wouldn't. How this equates to a failure by Nate Silver beats me...
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Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse
Nate Silver is pants at predicting soccer...and football for that matter. These games are subject to such randomness that only FIFA and the NFL execs can influence, err..predict who wins championships
femibyte wrote:Dude, Nate Silver predicted 65% probabiltyfor Brazil to win the World Cup, which meant that there was a 35% chance they wouldn't. How this equates to a failure by Nate Silver beats me...
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Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse
BP getting ahead of himself as usual.Bigpokey24 wrote:dude hush... bottom line is i warned you suare will be sold, instead nah lambert and lalana una buyfemibyte wrote:Dude, Nate Silver predicted 65% probabiltyfor Brazil to win the World Cup, which meant that there was a 35% chance they wouldn't. How this equates to a failure by Nate Silver beats me...
The transfer window isn't shut yet, and the season hasn't started. Yet hear you go yarning opaks. Ok, Chelski's gonna win the title, with Mikel leading the way as captain. Happy now ?
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Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse
what does the thread title mean?
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Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse
^Diaris God o!
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Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse
^ mugu where dey your False 9 analysis?
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Re: Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse
How far with suarefemibyte wrote:BP getting ahead of himself as usual.Bigpokey24 wrote:dude hush... bottom line is i warned you suare will be sold, instead nah lambert and lalana una buyfemibyte wrote:Dude, Nate Silver predicted 65% probabiltyfor Brazil to win the World Cup, which meant that there was a 35% chance they wouldn't. How this equates to a failure by Nate Silver beats me...
The transfer window isn't shut yet, and the season hasn't started. Yet hear you go yarning opaks. Ok, Chelski's gonna win the title, with Mikel leading the way as captain. Happy now ?
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© Bigpokey24, most loved on CE
My post are with no warranties and confers zero rights. Get out your feelings
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